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MAY KEY FIGURES

	March 2006	April 2006	May 2006	Apr 06 to May 06
	$m	$m	$m	% change
Trend
Balance on goods & services	-1 418	(a)-1 369	-1 466	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	16 458	(a)16 693	16 745	-
Debits (imports of goods & services)	17 876	18 062	18 211	1
Seasonally Adjusted
Balance on goods & services	-1 402	-1 115	-2 266	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	16 143	17 013	16 454	-3
Debits (imports of goods & services)	17 545	18 128	18 720	3
. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) A trend break of $150m has been applied - see page 2 for details.

Balance on goods and services

• The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,466m in May 2006, an increase of $97m on the revised deficit in April.
• Goods and services credits rose $52m to $16,745m. Goods and services debits rose $149m (1%) to $18,211m.

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,266m in May, an increase of $1,151m on the revised deficit in April.
• Goods and services credits fell $559m (3%) to $16,454m. Non-rural and other goods fell $538m (5%) and rural goods fell $28m (1%). Services credits rose $7m.
• Goods and services debits rose $592m (3%) to $18,720m. Intermediate and other goods rose $574m (8%) and capital goods rose $97m (3%), while consumption goods fell $47m (1%). Services debits fell $32m (1%).

• In original terms, the May balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,243m, an increase of $2,162m on the revised deficit in April. Goods and services credits fell $184m (1%) and goods and services debits rose $1,978m (12%).
• In the eleven months to May, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $23.2b (25%) while rural goods were down $0.5b (2%) on the corresponding period in 2004-05.

• increased the deficit on goods and services for April 2006 by $11m
• decreased the deficit for the 10 months to April 2006 by $203m.

Since the price increase impact is likely to result in a permanent change in the level of the series (at least for the duration of the current contracts), an estimated trend break correction of $150m has been applied in April 2006. As a minimum of three months are required for a trend break correction to be accurately estimated using time series techniques, the size of the trend break may be revised. Therefore, users should interpret the trend estimates for recent months with some caution.

The seasonally adjusted estimates also reflect the level shift resulting from the increase prices but the impact of this increase has been taken into account in determining the concurrent seasonal factors.

CHANGES IN THE NEXT ISSUE

Some import and export transactions currently included in goods for processing in the Balance of Payments will be reclassified in the June issue of this publication. The reclassification will not impact on the balance of goods (in original, current price terms). A feature article, Revised treatment of goods for processing in merchandise trade and Balance of Payments statistics, describing the changes will be released concurrently with this issue. The article can be accessed on the ABS web site www.abs.gov.au from the summary page of this issue.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Olivia Lam on Canberra (02) 6252 5540.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in May 2006 was a deficit of $1,466m, an increase of $97m on the deficit in April.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in May 2006 was a deficit of $2,266m, an increase of $1,151m on the deficit in April.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $52m between April and May to $16,745m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $559m (3%) to $16,454m. Non-rural goods fell $348m (3%), other goods fell $190m (14%), and rural goods fell $28m (1%). Services credits rose $7m.

Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $28m (1%) to $2,135m.

The main movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this fall were:

• wool and sheepskins, down $47m (19%)
• meat and meat preparations, down $20m (4%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $99m (5%) to $2,252m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

The trend estimate of non-rural goods exports fell $37m to $10,058m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $348m (3%) to $9,846m.

The main movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this fall were:

• other mineral fuels, down $245m (22%)
• other manufactures, down $167m (13%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $112m (5%).

• metals (excluding non-monetary gold), up $119m (12%)
• other non-rural, up $103m (10%).

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• other mineral fuels, down $273m (25%), compared to an average April to May fall of 0.4% over the previous three years with:
  • petroleum, petroleum products, down $140m (25%)
  • gas, natural and manufactured, down $133m (26%).
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $144m (7%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 6% over the previous three years with:
  • non-metallurgical coal, down $102m (15%), driven by volumes
  • metallurgical coal, down $65m (5%), driven by prices.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods fell $190m (14%) to $1,157m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series was non-monetary gold, down $229m (29%).

In original terms, exports of other goods fell $207m (15%) to $1,154m.

Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS

Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $7m to $3,316m.

The component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series was transportation services, up $12m (2%).

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $1m to $2,095m.

IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $149m (1%) between April and May to $18,211m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $592m (3%) to $18,720m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $440m (7%), other goods rose $134m (15%), capital goods rose $97m (3%), while consumption goods fell $47m (1%). Services debits fell $32m (1%).

Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $47m (1%) to $4,348m.

The components that contributed to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $32m (6%)
• household electrical items, down $17m (4%)
• toys, books and leisure goods, down $15m (4%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., down $15m (1%).

• non-industrial transport equipment, up $25m (2%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $7m (1%).

CAPITAL GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods fell $28m (1%) to $3,399m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $97m (3%) to $3,450m.

The components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s., up $154m (31%)
• civil aircraft, up $132m.

• machinery and industrial equipment, down $79m (6%)
• telecommunications equipment, down $42m (8%)
• ADP equipment, down $41m (8%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate goods rose $104m (2%) to $6,375m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate goods imports rose $440m (7%) to $6,665m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $537m (31%) with:
  • other petroleum products, up $334m (51%)
  • crude petroleum, up $203m (20%), with volumes up 14% and prices up 5%.
• parts for transport equipment, up $34m (5%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $33m (3%).

• other parts for capital goods, down $93m (10%)
• paper and paperboard, down $22m (10%)
• other merchandise goods, down $21m (18%).

OTHER GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of other goods rose $69m (8%) to $891m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, other goods imports rose $134m (15%) to $1,008m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were non-monetary gold, up $77m and goods for processing, up $55m (8%).

In original terms, other goods imports rose $138m (16%) to $1,011m.

Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS

Seasonally adjusted, services debits fell $32m (1%) to $3,249m.

The movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this fall were:

• transportation services, down $35m (3%)
• travel services, down $5m.

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits fell $39m (2%) to $1,680m.