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JULY KEY FIGURES

	May 2005	June 2005	July 2005	Jun 05 to Jul 05
	$m	$m	$m	% change
Trend
Balance on goods & services	-1 508	-1 452	-1 403	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	14 586	14 746	14 879	1
Debits (imports of goods & services)	16 094	16 198	16 282	1
Seasonally Adjusted
Balance on goods & services	-1 471	-1 404	-1 458	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	14 750	14 638	14 992	2
Debits (imports of goods & services)	16 221	16 042	16 450	3
. . not applicable

Balance on goods and services

• The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,403m in July 2005, a decrease of $49m on the revised deficit in June.
• Goods and services credits rose $133m (1%) to $14,879m. Goods and services debits rose $84m (1%) to $16,282m.

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,458m in July, an increase of $54m on the deficit in June.
• Goods and services credits rose $354m (2%) to $14,992m. Non-rural and other goods rose $324m (3%), and rural goods rose $13m (1%). Services credits rose $17m (1%).
• Goods and services debits rose $408m (3%) to $16,450m. Intermediate and other goods rose $252m (4%), capital goods rose $91m (3%) and consumption goods rose $34m (1%). Services debits rose $31m (1%).

• In original terms, the July balance on goods and services was a deficit of $386m, a decrease of $1,768m on the deficit in June. Goods and services credits rose $1,641m (12%) and goods and services debits fell $127m (1%).
• Non-rural and other goods were up $2.4b (31%) while rural goods were down $0.3b (12%) on the corresponding period in 2003-04.

CHANGES TO FORTHCOMING ISSUE

Travel and tourism related services

From the August 2005 issue of this publication, the travel services credits and debits series will incorporate a new methodology and new data sources. Estimates for earlier periods will be recompiled to maintain consistency in the time series.

There will be consequential changes to the tourism related services series as travel services are a significant contributor to these series.

Those changes are part of the ABS's ongoing efforts to improve the quality of services estimates.

A feature article, detailing the changes to travel services credits and debits, will be released concurrently with the August 2005 issue of this publication.

October 2005 Issue of 5368.0

The release date for this issue has been moved from the previously advertised date of 30 November 2005 to 6 December 2005. This delay is to enable validation of the data and processes following the full implementation in October 2005 of a new Imports processing system by the Australian Customs service.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Tom Jebbink on Canberra (02) 6252 5540.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in July 2005 was a deficit of $1,403m, a decrease of $49m on the deficit in June.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in July 2005 was a deficit of $1,458m, an increase of $54m on the deficit in June.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $133m (1%) between June and July to $14,879m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $354m (2%) to $14,992m. Non-rural and other goods rose $324m (3%), rural goods rose $13m (1%) and services credits rose $17m (1%).

Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $13m (1%) to $2,151m.

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $9m to $2,096m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted series were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $34m (12%), in contrast to an average June to July fall of 3% over the previous three years
• other rural, up $7m (1%), in contrast to an average June to July fall of 3% over the previous three years.

Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $118m (1%) to $9,832m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $324m (3%) to $9,904m.

In original terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $765m (8%) to $10,179m.

The value of exports of non-rural and other goods in original terms is influenced by the number and composition of trading days in July 2005 compared with June 2005. To account for this difference, a downward adjustment of about 7 percentage points was applied prior to deriving the seasonally adjusted series.

The following commodity groups had the largest deviation from their three year average movement:

• other mineral fuels, up $440m (50%), compared with an average June to July rise of 19% over the previous three years
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $169m (9%), in contrast to an average June to July fall of 5% over the previous three years
• metal ores and minerals, up $18m (1%), in contrast to an average June to July fall of 8% over the previous three years
• other goods, up $105m (19%), compared with an average June to July rise of 6% over the previous three years
• other non-rural, down $32m (3%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 6% over the previous three years.

SERVICES CREDITS

Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $17m (1%) to $2,937m.

Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

• other services, up $13m (2%)
• travel services, up $4m.

IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $84m (1%) between June and July to $16,282m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $408m (3%) to $16,450m. Intermediate and other goods rose $252m (4%), capital goods rose $91m (3%) and consumption goods rose $34m (1%).

Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $34m (1%) to $4,034m.

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $139m (4%) to $4,021m.

The value of imports of consumption goods in original terms is influenced by the number of effective trading days in July 2005 being lower than June 2005. To account for this difference, an upward adjustment of about 3 percentage points was applied prior to deriving the seasonally adjusted series.

The following commodity groups had the largest deviation from their three year average movement:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up $69m (6%), compared with an average June to July rise of 21% over the previous three years
• non-industrial transport equipment, down $60m (5%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 6% over the previous three years
• food and beverages, down $24m (5%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 9% over the previous three years.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $91m (3%) to $2,981m.

In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $391m (12%) to $2,956m.

The value of imports of capital goods in original terms is influenced by the number of effective trading days in July 2005 being lower than June 2005. To account for this difference, an upward adjustment of about 6 percentage points was applied prior to deriving the seasonally adjusted series.

The following commodity groups had the largest deviation from their three year average movement:

• machinery and industrial equipment, up $112m (11%), compared with an average June to July rise of 8% over the previous three years
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., down $19m (4%), compared with an average June to July fall of 6% over the previous three years
• civil aircraft, down $253m (72%)
• capital goods n.e.s., down $49m (11%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 5% over the previous three years.

In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports rose $252m (4%) to $6,291m.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods fell $56m (1%) to $5,885m.

To account for the difference in effective trading days between June and July 2005, an upward adjustment of about 1 percentage point was applied to the original estimates prior to deriving the seasonally adjusted series.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $25m (2%), in contrast to an average June to July fall of 3% over the previous three years
• organic and inorganic chemicals, up $43m (16%), compared with an average June to July rise of 5% over the previous three years
• other merchandise goods, up $4m (6%), in contrast to an average June to July fall of 11% over the previous three years
• iron and steel, up $23m (9%), compared with an average June to July rise of 5% over the previous three years.

• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $4m, in contrast to an average June to July rise of 9% over the previous three years
• parts for transport equipment, down $33m (6%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 8% over the previous three years.

SERVICES DEBITS

Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $31m (1%) to $3,144m.

The movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

• travel services, up $14m (1%)
• freight, up $10m (2%)
• transportation services, up $3m (1%)
• other services, up $4m.