SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

		July 2008	August 2008	September 2008	Aug 08 to Sep 08
		$m	$m	$m	% change
BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES
	Trend estimates	537	739	894	21
	Seasonally adjusted	-550	1 240	1 460	18
CREDITS (Exports of goods & services)
	Trend estimates	24 090	24 707	25 226	2
	Seasonally adjusted	23 372	24 656	26 507	8
DEBITS (Imports of goods & services)
	Trend estimates	23 554	23 968	24 332	2
	Seasonally adjusted	23 922	23 416	25 047	7

Balance on Goods and Services

SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

• The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $894m in September 2008, an increase of $155m on a revised surplus in August 2008.
• In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,460m in September 2008, an increase of $220m on a revised surplus in August 2008.
• The seasonally adjusted surplus was primarily due to the strong increase in non rural goods credits outweighing the strong increase in intermediate and other merchandise goods debits.

CREDITS (EXPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES)

• Seasonally adjusted, goods and services credits rose $1,851m (8%) to $26,507m. Non-rural goods rose $1,671m (10%) and other goods rose $39m (3%), while rural goods fell $12m (1%). Services credits rose $152m (3%).
• The rise in non-rural goods was largely driven by metal ores and minerals, which rose $941m (19%) and coal, coke and briquettes which rose $626m (14%).

DEBITS (IMPORTS OF GOODS & SERVICES)

• Seasonally adjusted, goods and services debits rose $1,631m (7%) to $25,047m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $1,132m (13%), capital goods rose $216m (5%), other goods rose $175m (16%) and consumption goods rose $27m (1%). Services debits rose $80m (2%).
• The main contributor to the increase in intermediate and other merchandise goods was fuels and lubricants, which rose $547m (20%).

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	Release Date
October 2008	4 December 2008
November 2008	8 January 2009
December 2008	3 February 2009
January 2009	5 March 2009
February 2009	2 April 2009
March 2009	7 May 2009

REVISIONS

Revisions have been made to incorporate the latest available data relating to merchandise trade and international trade in services. In original terms, these revisions have :

• decreased the surplus on goods and services for August 2008 by $181m, primarily due to the incorporation of the latest Overseas Arrivals and Departures data
• increased the deficit on goods and services for 2007-08 by $698m, with:
  • goods credits decreasing by $554m (see Coal and Iron Ore Prices below)
  • goods debits increasing by $144m.

COAL AND IRON ORE PRICES

Since the May 2008 issue the balance of payments coal and iron ore series have been adjusted to account for delays in exporters finalising Customs entries for new contract prices. These adjustments are reviewed as new information becomes available.

In this issue, the adjustments for coal applying in the August 2008 issue ($200m for both April and May 2008 and $100m for June) have now been removed as no further revisions to Customs entries are expected for these months. For iron ore, the April adjustment remains at $300m, the May and June adjustments have been reduced by $50m each to $250m each and the $100m adjustment for July has been removed. It is expected that these adjustments will remain unless revised Customs entries are received.

Trend Breaks of $725m and $2b have been applied to the April 2008 month for the balance of payments metal ores and coal series, respectively. These trend breaks are an estimate of the change of level that has occurred in these series. The size of these trend breaks may be reassessed in coming months and caution should be used when interpreting these series.


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Refer to Changes in Issue - 'Confidentiality Restrictions' for details of the changed treatment of certain confidentiality restrictions.


DETAILED SERVICES DATA

The trade in services data cubes listed under Time series data, for data on a financial year basis to 2007-08 have been updated concurrently with this issue. In addition, two new data cubes have been included showing more detailed travel data for all countries.


INQUIRIES

For further information contact Selvi Sekhar on Canberra (02) 6252 5540 for goods, and Karen McGuigan on Canberra (02) 6252 5415 for services.