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OCTOBER KEY FIGURES

		Sep 2007	Oct 2007	Sep 2007 to Oct 2007
		$m	$m	% change
TREND ESTIMATES
	Housing finance for owner occupation	15 249	15 136	-0.7
	Personal finance	6 670	6 628	-0.6
	Commercial finance	43 699	43 713	-
	Lease finance	569	582	2.2
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
	Housing finance for owner occupation	14 988	15 157	1.1
	Personal finance	6 371	6 859	7.7
	Commercial finance	42 952	42 634	-0.7
	Lease finance	571	612	7.2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Personal finance

Commercial finance

OCTOBER KEY POINTS


OCTOBER 2007 COMPARED WITH SEPTEMBER 2007:

HOUSING FINANCE FOR OWNER OCCUPATION

• The total value of owner occupied housing commitments excluding alterations and additions increased by 1.1% (seasonally adjusted), while the trend series fell 0.7%.

• The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total personal finance commitments rose by 7.7%. This increase was due to a rise in revolving credit commitments (up 9.4%) and fixed lending commitments (up 5.6%).
• The trend series for the value of total personal finance fell 0.6%, due to a fall in both fixed lending commitments (down 0.6%) and revolving credit commitments (down 0.6%).

• The seasonally adjusted series for the value of total commercial finance commitments fell by 0.7%. This decrease was due to a fall in fixed lending commitments (down 7.5%), partially offset by an increase in revolving credit commitments (up 11.6%).
• The trend series for the value of total commercial finance commitments remained virtually unchanged. This was due to a fall in fixed lending commitments (down 0.4%), offsetting a rise in revolving credit commitments (up 0.7%).

• Lease finance commitments (seasonally adjusted) increased by 7.2%. The lease finance trend series rose by 2.2%.

Recently, the ABS implemented improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of ARIMA modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process.

The seasonal adjustment Lending Finance estimates will use, from the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis, concurrent seasonal adjustment with ARIMA modelling where applicable to reduce the level of revision to seasonally adjust estimates. For more information on the details of ARIMA modelling see Feature article: Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions, October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat.no.1350.0).

REVISIONS

Revisions were made to Personal Finance and Commercial Finance to include the latest available administrative and survey data. The revisions impact data from October 2006 on.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Philip Beresford on Canberra (02) 6252 6052.