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This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.
SEPTEMBER 2003 KEY POINTS
Trend
A record high trend estimate of 80,416 for total sales of new motor vehicles was recorded for September 2003. The trend estimate has shown 11 months of continuous growth with a 1.0% increase in September 2003 compared with August 2003. This is less than the 1.4% increase recorded in August 2003 compared with July 2003.
Going against the national direction, the Northern Territory has recorded falls in the trend estimate for the sales of new motor vehicles for the past 6 months. For September 2003 the Northern Territory recorded a fall of 1.4% while the other states and the Australian Capital Territory all recorded increases. Trend growth was recorded above the national average by Queensland (1.7%), South Australia (1.8%), Western Australia (1.2%) and Tasmania (2.0%).
The trend estimate in the sales of passenger vehicles increased by 1.2% in September 2003 compared to August 2003. Other vehicles recorded a trend estimate increase of 0.6% over the same period.
Seasonally adjusted
Seasonally adjusted estimates of total new motor vehicle sales rose from 79,316 in August 2003 to 81,079 (2.2%) in September 2003.
NOTES
DATA QUALITY
Due to a processing problem with the data supplier for heavy truck sales, other vehicles were understated by 367 units in July 2002. These missing units have been included in the August 2002 sales data for other vehicles. The impact on the original series is as follows: New South Wales (119 units), Victoria (63 units), Queensland (84 units), South Australia (18 units), Western Australia (65 units), Tasmania (14 units) and the Northern Territory (4 units).
TREND REVISIONS
The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.
The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.
1 | The October 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the September 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%. |
2 | The October 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the September 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%. |
The percentage change of 4.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 8 years has been 4.2%.
The next annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors will be undertaken after data for reference month October 2003 have been released.
SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS
Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales
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| | Passenger vehicles (No.) | Other vehicles (a) (No.) | Total vehicles (No.) | Change Passenger vehicles (%) | Change Other vehicles (%) | Change Total vehicles (%) |
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Original |
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2002 | July | 45,923 | 23,859 | 69,782 | -6.5 | -19.6 | -11.4 |
| August | 45,122 | 24,525 | 69,647 | -1.7 | 2.8 | -0.2 |
| September | 43,396 | 22,638 | 66,034 | -3.8 | -7.7 | -5.2 |
| October | 48,269 | 24,063 | 72,332 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 9.5 |
| November | 47,229 | 24,346 | 71,575 | -2.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 |
| December | 45,317 | 22,656 | 67,973 | -4.0 | -6.9 | -5.0 |
| | | | | | | |
2003 | January | 40,015 | 21,155 | 61,170 | -11.7 | -6.6 | -10.0 |
| February | 43,677 | 23,058 | 66,735 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.1 |
| March | 49,921 | 26,192 | 76,113 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 14.1 |
| April | 44,602 | 24,263 | 68,865 | -10.7 | -7.4 | -9.5 |
| May | 49,646 | 28,616 | 78,262 | 11.3 | 17.9 | 13.6 |
| June | 57,086 | 34,972 | 92,058 | 15.0 | 22.2 | 17.6 |
| July | 51,450 | 28,071 | 79,521 | -9.9 | -19.7 | -13.6 |
| August | 49,869 | 26,304 | 76,173 | -3.1 | -6.3 | -4.2 |
| September | 51,749 | 26,042 | 77,791 | 3.8 | -1.0 | 2.1 |
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Seasonally Adjusted |
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2002 | July | 44,390 | 24,048 | 68,438 | -0.7 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| August | 45,301 | 25,217 | 70,518 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 3.0 |
| September | 45,947 | 25,194 | 71,141 | 1.4 | -0.1 | 0.9 |
| October | 45,791 | 24,955 | 70,746 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -0.6 |
| November | 45,464 | 23,406 | 68,870 | -0.7 | -6.2 | -2.7 |
| December | 41,865 | 20,783 | 62,648 | -7.9 | -11.2 | -9.0 |
| | | | | | | |
2003 | January | 49,584 | 28,103 | 77,687 | 18.4 | 35.2 | 24.0 |
| February | 46,685 | 24,775 | 71,460 | -5.8 | -11.8 | -8.0 |
| March | 47,875 | 25,032 | 72,907 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| April | 48,507 | 26,090 | 74,597 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 2.3 |
| May | 50,185 | 27,164 | 77,349 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| June | 50,132 | 27,198 | 77,330 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| July | 49,687 | 28,629 | 78,316 | -0.9 | 5.3 | 1.3 |
| August | 51,866 | 27,450 | 79,316 | 4.4 | -4.1 | 1.3 |
| September | 53,175 | 27,904 | 81,079 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.2 |
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Trend |
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2002 | July | 45,060 | 24,484 | 69,544 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| August | 45,126 | 24,581 | 69,707 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| September | 45,113 | 24,454 | 69,567 | 0.0 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| October | 45,163 | 24,265 | 69,428 | 0.1 | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| November | 45,355 | 24,165 | 69,520 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
| December | 45,724 | 24,235 | 69,959 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
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2003 | January | 46,332 | 24,512 | 70,844 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| February | 47,132 | 25,035 | 72,167 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| March | 47,983 | 25,710 | 73,693 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| April | 48,774 | 26,357 | 75,131 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| May | 49,455 | 26,861 | 76,316 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| June | 50,097 | 27,262 | 77,359 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| July | 50,835 | 27,662 | 78,497 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| August | 51,609 | 28,015 | 79,624 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| September | 52,220 | 28,196 | 80,416 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
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(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes. |
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Table 2: New Motor Vehicle Sales by State/Territory of Registration (a)
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| | NSW (No.) | Vic. (No.) | Qld (No.) | SA (No.) | WA (No.) | Tas. (No.) | NT (No.) | ACT (No.) | Aust. (No.) |
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Original |
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2002 | July | 24,643 | 18,721 | 13,462 | 4,457 | 5,562 | 1,174 | 579 | 1,184 | 69,782 |
| August | 23,456 | 18,942 | 13,516 | 4,537 | 6,102 | 1,311 | 597 | 1,186 | 69,647 |
| September | 22,236 | 18,765 | 12,497 | 4,187 | 5,493 | 1,239 | 507 | 1,110 | 66,034 |
| October | 24,618 | 20,185 | 13,456 | 4,499 | 6,627 | 1,203 | 580 | 1,164 | 72,332 |
| November | 24,349 | 19,829 | 13,224 | 4,641 | 6,320 | 1,398 | 628 | 1,186 | 71,575 |
| December | 21,741 | 19,706 | 12,672 | 4,531 | 5,989 | 1,584 | 585 | 1,165 | 67,973 |
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2003 | January | 20,648 | 16,490 | 11,632 | 3,988 | 5,762 | 1,025 | 534 | 1,091 | 61,170 |
| February | 21,965 | 18,152 | 12,956 | 4,754 | 6,164 | 1,069 | 582 | 1,093 | 66,735 |
| March | 25,541 | 20,408 | 14,843 | 5,147 | 6,917 | 1,218 | 769 | 1,270 | 76,113 |
| April | 23,588 | 18,368 | 13,386 | 4,507 | 5,948 | 1,177 | 728 | 1,163 | 68,865 |
| May | 26,259 | 21,053 | 14,967 | 5,273 | 7,127 | 1,454 | 789 | 1,340 | 78,262 |
| June | 31,168 | 24,132 | 18,084 | 6,089 | 8,662 | 1,549 | 866 | 1,508 | 92,058 |
| July | 26,983 | 21,248 | 15,716 | 5,298 | 6,973 | 1,407 | 635 | 1,261 | 79,521 |
| August | 25,391 | 19,799 | 15,248 | 5,263 | 7,048 | 1,589 | 555 | 1,280 | 76,173 |
| September | 25,738 | 21,200 | 15,293 | 5,222 | 6,894 | 1,639 | 593 | 1,212 | 77,791 |
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Seasonally Adjusted |
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2002 | July | 23,332 | 18,419 | 13,518 | 4,360 | 5,904 | 1,210 | 586 | 1,109 | 68,438 |
| August | 24,094 | 18,986 | 13,768 | 4,427 | 6,190 | 1,256 | 617 | 1,180 | 70,518 |
| September | 23,778 | 19,665 | 13,771 | 4,581 | 6,154 | 1,292 | 596 | 1,304 | 71,141 |
| October | 24,025 | 19,026 | 13,887 | 4,434 | 6,434 | 1,225 | 588 | 1,127 | 70,746 |
| November | 23,130 | 19,251 | 12,847 | 4,426 | 6,192 | 1,289 | 617 | 1,118 | 68,870 |
| December | 20,809 | 17,721 | 11,628 | 4,138 | 5,564 | 1,080 | 611 | 1,097 | 62,648 |
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2003 | January | 26,458 | 21,064 | 14,557 | 5,236 | 6,981 | 1,359 | 673 | 1,359 | 77,687 |
| February | 23,770 | 19,372 | 13,648 | 5,110 | 6,444 | 1,271 | 674 | 1,171 | 71,460 |
| March | 24,007 | 20,083 | 14,169 | 4,952 | 6,459 | 1,308 | 718 | 1,211 | 72,907 |
| April | 25,777 | 19,695 | 14,567 | 5,044 | 6,203 | 1,333 | 706 | 1,272 | 74,597 |
| May | 25,698 | 21,106 | 15,000 | 5,058 | 7,089 | 1,435 | 697 | 1,266 | 77,349 |
| June | 25,969 | 21,134 | 14,169 | 5,062 | 7,468 | 1,520 | 660 | 1,348 | 77,330 |
| July | 25,724 | 20,866 | 16,064 | 5,178 | 7,201 | 1,467 | 636 | 1,180 | 78,316 |
| August | 26,916 | 20,469 | 15,938 | 5,373 | 7,193 | 1,558 | 592 | 1,277 | 79,316 |
| September | 26,924 | 21,452 | 16,166 | 5,530 | 7,375 | 1,589 | 682 | 1,361 | 81,079 |
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Trend |
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2002 | July | 23,878 | 18,779 | 13,283 | 4,419 | 6,126 | 1,267 | 611 | 1,181 | 69,544 |
| August | 23,737 | 18,919 | 13,443 | 4,418 | 6,144 | 1,261 | 604 | 1,181 | 69,707 |
| September | 23,535 | 18,998 | 13,439 | 4,417 | 6,155 | 1,248 | 599 | 1,176 | 69,567 |
| October | 23,379 | 19,081 | 13,335 | 4,444 | 6,180 | 1,237 | 601 | 1,171 | 69,428 |
| November | 23,348 | 19,176 | 13,233 | 4,524 | 6,217 | 1,233 | 613 | 1,176 | 69,520 |
| December | 23,468 | 19,289 | 13,246 | 4,649 | 6,254 | 1,236 | 634 | 1,183 | 69,959 |
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2003 | January | 23,770 | 19,461 | 13,405 | 4,793 | 6,307 | 1,251 | 659 | 1,198 | 70,844 |
| February | 24,219 | 19,733 | 13,711 | 4,923 | 6,400 | 1,279 | 682 | 1,220 | 72,167 |
| March | 24,732 | 20,056 | 14,083 | 5,016 | 6,547 | 1,320 | 696 | 1,243 | 73,693 |
| April | 25,203 | 20,353 | 14,463 | 5,067 | 6,724 | 1,369 | 694 | 1,258 | 75,131 |
| May | 25,580 | 20,575 | 14,797 | 5,096 | 6,904 | 1,419 | 682 | 1,263 | 76,316 |
| June | 25,895 | 20,746 | 15,110 | 5,140 | 7,067 | 1,465 | 666 | 1,270 | 77,359 |
| July | 26,243 | 20,913 | 15,462 | 5,220 | 7,219 | 1,508 | 651 | 1,281 | 78,497 |
| August | 26,598 | 21,071 | 15,814 | 5,315 | 7,344 | 1,548 | 640 | 1,294 | 79,624 |
| September | 26,834 | 21,147 | 16,084 | 5,409 | 7,429 | 1,579 | 631 | 1,303 | 80,416 |
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(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.
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