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JANUARY KEY FIGURES

	November 2004	December 2004	January 2005	Dec 04 to Jan 05
	$m	$m	$m	% change
Trend
Balance on goods & services	-2,466	-2,556	-2,612	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	12,989	12,985	13,010	-
Debits (imports of goods & services)	15,455	15,541	15,622	1
Seasonally Adjusted
Balance on goods & services	-2,624	-2,414	-2,721	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	12,905	13,070	13,023	-
Debits (imports of goods & services)	15,529	15,484	15,744	2
. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services

• The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,612m in January 2005, an increase of $56m on the deficit in December.
• Goods and services credits rose $25m to $13,010m. Non-rural and other goods rose $66m (1%), while rural goods fell $51m (3%). Services credits rose $10m.
• Goods and services debits rose $81m (1%) to $15,622m. Consumption goods rose $69m (2%), intermediate and other goods rose $20m, while capital goods fell $37m (1%). Services debits rose $29m (1%).

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,721m in January, an increase of $307m on the deficit in December.
• Goods and services credits fell $47m to $13,023m. Rural goods fell $104m (5%), while non-rural and other goods rose $6m. Services credits rose $51m (2%).
• Goods and services debits rose $260m (2%) to $15,744m. Consumption goods rose $393m (10%), while capital goods fell $120m (4%) and intermediate and other goods fell $66m (1%). Services debits rose $53m (2%).

• In original terms, the January balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,349m, an increase of $264m on the deficit in December. Goods and services credits fell $1,354m (10%) and goods and services debits fell $1,090m (7%).
• In the seven months to January, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $7.6b (15%) and rural goods were up $2.1b (16%) on the corresponding period in 2003-04.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on Canberra (02) 6252 6792.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in January 2005 was a deficit of $2,612m, an increase of $56m on the deficit in December.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in January 2005 was a deficit of $2,721m, an increase of $307m on the deficit in December.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $25m between December and January to $13,010m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $47m between December and January to $13,023m. Rural goods fell $104m (5%), while non-rural and other goods rose $6m and services credits rose $51m (2%).

Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $104m (5%) to $1,929m.

In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $516m (24%) to $1,646m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• other rural, down $233m (25%), compared with an average December to January fall of 11% over the previous three years
• meat and meat preparations, down $254m (43%), compared with an average December to January fall of 37% over the previous three years
• wool and sheepskins, down $128m (48%), compared with an average December to January fall of 38% over the previous three years.

Contributing to the offset by about 1 percentage point was an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in December and January.

Exports of goods continued

Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $66m (1%) to $8,205m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $6m to $8,209m.

In original terms, exports of non-rural and other goods fell $1,317m (15%) to $7,213m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• metal ores and minerals, down $175m (11%), compared with an average December to January fall of 20% over the previous three years
• other mineral fuels, up $32m (4%), in contrast to an average December to January fall of 5% over the previous three years
• metals (excluding gold), up $10m (1%), in contrast to an average December to January fall of 7% over the previous three years
• other non-rural, down $76m (9%), compared with an average December to January fall of 13% over the previous three years.

• other goods, down $35m (5%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 32% over the previous three years
• other manufactures, down $447m (35%), compared with an average December to January fall of 22% over the previous three years
• machinery, down $346m (46%), compared with an average December to January fall of 37% over the previous three years.

SERVICES CREDITS

Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $51m (2%) to $2,885m.

Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

• travel services, up $41m (3%)
• transportation services, up $9m (2%).

IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $81m (1%) between December and January to $15,622m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $260m (2%) to $15,744m.

Consumption goods rose $393m (10%) and services debits rose $53m (2%), while capital goods fell $120m (4%) and intermediate and other goods fell $66m (1%).

Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $393m (10%) to $4,260m.

In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $83m (2%) to $3,721m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, up $47m (4%), in contrast to an average December to January fall of 17% over the previous three years
• textiles, clothing and footwear, up $210m (58%), compared with an average December to January rise of 34% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., down $135m (11%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 1% over the previous three years
• household electrical items, down $107m (30%), compared with an average December to January fall of 18% over the previous three years
• toys, books and leisure goods, down $47m (17%), compared with an average December to January fall of 5% over the previous three years.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $120m (4%) to $2,760m.

In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $593m (20%) to $2,416m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• civil aircraft, down $131m (99%), in contrast to large December to January rises over the previous three years
• machinery and industrial equipment, down $222m (18%), compared with an average December to January fall of 3% over the previous three years
• capital goods n.e.s., down $71m (18%), compared with an average December to January fall of 13% over the previous three years.

• telecommunications equipment, down $99m (25%), compared with an average December to January fall of 41% over the previous three years
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $34m (9%), in contrast to an average December to January fall of 3% over the previous three years.

Intermediate and Other Goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods rose $20m to $5,646m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports fell $66m (1%) to $5,589m.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods fell $567m (10%) to $5,162m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• fuels and lubricants, down $367m (27%), compared with an average December to January fall of 2% over the previous three years (crude petroleum volumes fell 26.6% and prices fell 8.5% between December and January)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $26m (2%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 9% over the previous three years
• other parts for capital goods, down $98m (12%), compared with an average December to January fall of 1% over the previous three years
• other goods, down $79m (18%), in contrast to an average December to January rise of 1% over the previous three years.

• parts for transport equipment, up $9m (2%), in contrast to an average December to January fall of 2% over the previous three years
• other merchandise goods, steady, compared with an average December to January fall of 10% over the previous three years.

Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS

Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $53m (2%) to $3,135m.

Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

• freight transportation services, up $25m (4%)
• travel services, up $22m (2%).