TAKE CARE! The estimates in this release have been revised back to October 2014. See 'Upgrade to the OAD system due to increases in missing passenger cards' below for details.

MARCH KEY FIGURES

		Mar '16	Feb '16 to Mar '16	Mar '15 to Mar '16
		'000	% change	% change
Short-term visitor arrivals
	Trend	658.9	0.3	8.7
	Seasonally adjusted	666.0	3.5	. .
	Original	754.6	. .	. .
Short-term resident departures
	Trend	821.4	0.4	5.2
	Seasonally adjusted	830.9	3.9	. .
	Original	773.4	. .	. .
. . not applicable

Visitor arrivals, Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term

MARCH KEY POINTS
SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS TO AUSTRALIA

• Trend estimates: Short-term visitor arrivals during March 2016 (658,900 movements) increased 0.3%, compared with February 2016 (656,700 movements). This followed monthly increases of 0.6% in January 2016 and 0.5% in February 2016. The current trend estimate for arrivals is 8.7% higher than in March 2015.
• Seasonally adjusted estimates: During March 2016, short-term visitor arrivals (666,000 movements) increased 3.5% compared with February 2016 (643,300 movements). This followed a monthly increase of 0.2% in January 2016 and a monthly decrease of 2.2% in February 2016.
• Original estimates: There were 754,600 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in March 2016.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES FROM AUSTRALIA

• Trend estimates: Short-term resident departures during March 2016 (821,400 movements) increased 0.4%, compared with February 2016 (818,500 movements). This followed monthly increases of 0.5% in January 2016 and 0.4% in February 2016. The current trend estimate for departures is 5.2% higher than in March 2015.
• Seasonally adjusted estimates: During March 2016, short-term resident departures (830,900 movements) increased 3.9% compared with February 2016 (799,900 movements). This followed a monthly increase of 0.9% in January 2016 and a monthly decrease of 2.8% in February 2016.
• Original estimates: There were 773,400 short-term resident departures from Australia in March 2016.

NOTES


FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	Release Date
April 2016	3 June 2016
May 2016	6 July 2016
June 2016	4 August 2016
July 2016	9 September 2016
August 2016	10 October 2016
September 2016	10 November 2016

DATA NOTES

This release contains overseas movement data which should not be interpreted as 'persons'. See paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

The statistics in this release have been rounded. See paragraph 34 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

From August 2015 onwards, the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP) has progressively rolled out new technologies to streamline and strengthen border operations. Departure SmartGates are currently in use at Kingsford Smith (Sydney), Eagle Farm (Brisbane) and Tullamarine (Melbourne) for processing passengers leaving Australia. Passengers using Departure SmartGates place their outgoing passenger card in drop boxes located near the Departure SmartGate rather than handing them to Australian Border Force officers.

Coinciding with the roll-out of Departure SmartGates, there has been an increase in outgoing passenger cards not being collected due to passengers failing to place their cards into the drop boxes. The ABS and DIBP have been working together to mitigate this issue and to minimise the impact on data quality.

For March 2016, the ABS added 137,282 records to account for outgoing passenger cards missing from Kingsford Smith, Tullamarine, Eagle Farm and Perth. The ABS also added 692 records to account for a higher level of missing incoming passenger cards than expected from Coolangatta, Cairns, Darwin and Tullamarine airports. A total of 137,974 missing records were added to the overseas arrivals and departures data for March.

To accommodate for the increases in missing passenger cards, the ABS completed an upgrade to the OAD system in March 2016 to introduce new methods and maintain data quality. A revision of OAD data has been undertaken from October 2014 onwards based on the new methods. From October 2014 the ABS has adjusted for missing passenger card data each month. For further information, see Section 3 of the Data Quality Issues (Appendix 2) in the left hand side navigation bar under the Explanatory Notes tab.

UPGRADE TO THE OAD SYSTEM DUE TO INCREASES IN MISSING PASSENGER CARDS Why upgrade the OAD system? The ABS has upgraded the OAD system due to two changes at DIBP that have resulted in increases in missing passenger cards over time. 1. From October 2014 to May 2015, DIBP trialled a different provider for the processing of passenger cards. During this period there was a higher number of cards missing than expected. 2. From August 2015 onwards, DIBP progressively rolled out Departure SmartGates at the international airports. An increase in missing departure cards was observed throughout the roll-out. To accommodate for the increases in missing passenger cards over time the ABS completed an upgrade to the OAD system in March 2016. The primary aim of this project was to maintain the quality of OAD data, given its importance as an input to a broad range of statistical collections. OAD data is a key economic indicator, providing important information on cross-border movements. The data feeds into a number of important collections at the ABS including International Trade; National Income & Consumption; International Accounts and the Tourism Satellite Account. It is also a major input for estimating Net Overseas Migration (NOM) and therefore the Estimated Resident Population (ERP). The data is also used extensively by other government departments, such as the Department of Immigration and Border Protection, and by business, particularly within the tourism industry. Has there been a break in series? No, there is no break in series from October 2014. However, the estimates from October 2014 onwards are based on the revised methodology. What data has changed? The ABS introduce new methods to better accommodate for the increases in missing passenger cards. The upgrade includes the use of additional sources of data. This will maintain the data quality of most variables and has reduced reliance on the use of imputations. All of the data from the variables usually sourced from the passenger card have changed. They include: Country of Embarkation/Disembarkation - if card missing uses flight schedule information as an alternative source, otherwise imputes, Country of Residence/Stay - if original departure card missing uses individuals most recent secondary passenger card as an alternative source, otherwise imputes, Duration of Stay - if departure card missing and box D (visitor or temporary entrant departing) then exact duration is measured from previous border crossing, otherwise imputes, Passenger Card Box Type - if original departure card missing uses visa and citizenship information, or uses individuals most recent secondary passenger card as an alternative source, otherwise imputes, Reason for Journey, - if card missing imputes State of Stay/Residence - if original departure card missing uses individuals most recent secondary passenger card as an alternative source, otherwise imputes, Categories of Travel - created from a combination of Duration of Stay and Passenger Card Box Type.

Category of movement Month		Permanent Arrivals	Long-term Residents returning	Long-term Visitors arriving	Short-term Residents returning	Short-term Visitors arriving	Total arrivals
2014
	October	14	-6	-1 563	5 051	4 279	7 776
	November	110	24	-1 050	5 465	6 708	11 256
	December	70	51	171	2 825	5 110	8 227
2015
	January	99	77	510	5 930	3 668	10 284
	February	119	101	281	2 524	1 436	4 461
	March	-72	-5	57	2 326	1 793	4 098
	April	21	22	77	1 700	984	2 804
	May	-554	-62	-154	2 867	3 641	5 737
	June	16	-1	1	660	707	1 383
	July	15	7	75	814	397	1 308
	August	6	9	-1	532	365	911
	September	3	14	-114	578	386	867
	October	17	23	87	1 740	1 227	3 094
	November	16	9	-70	345	101	401
	December	16	18	1	589	1 010	1 633
2016
	January	3	10	3	-12	-3	0
	February	2	-17	-52	21	50	4

(a) Due to weighted samples of short-term movements, sums of components may not add exactly to totals.

Category of movement Month		Permanent Departures	Long-term Residents departing	Long-term Visitors departing	Short-term Residents departing	Short-term Visitors departing	Total departures
2014
	October	-986	-1 116	4	7 111	1 570	6 582
	November	-291	-408	128	5 042	2 615	7 085
	December	-427	-530	172	7 235	6 511	12 961
2015
	January	-145	-104	106	4 055	3 982	7 894
	February	-115	-105	102	2 620	2 095	4 597
	March	-1 147	-1 546	-128	2 394	1 848	1 422
	April	4	2	3	1 004	619	1 632
	May	-788	-977	72	3 760	1 269	3 336
	June	1	-14	-1	114	75	175
	July	2	-20	26	574	292	873
	August	8	-11	147	4 045	3 915	8 104
	September	18	47	382	11 973	9 090	21 509
	October	-1 110	-1 444	77	3 331	-358	496
	November	57	2	396	29	-268	217
	December	60	-22	819	-1 087	2 245	2 015
2016
	January	-490	86	744	3 651	-3 994	-4
	February	-388	67	867	4 194	-4 737	3

(a) Due to weighted samples of short-term movements, sums of components may not add exactly to totals.

When were the changes published? The upgrade to the OAD system and revised data was made available from the reference month of March 2016 in Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, March 2016 (cat. no. 3401.0), released on 6 May 2016. A revised time series based on the changed methods replaced all existing data for the reference period October 2014 to February 2016. Access to the previous time series remains available in Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, February 2016 (cat. no. 3401.0). Has this affected other ABS data? Yes. All data that uses OAD data as a major input to their collection has been affected to some degree. Each area of the ABS has been provided with the revised data where required. This includes: International Trade; National Income & Consumption; International Accounts and the Tourism Satellite Account. Has this affected the NOM time series? Yes (but there is no break to the series). The data from the upgraded OAD system has been used to produce preliminary NOM from December quarter 2014 onwards. The revisions will become available from December Quarter 2015, in Australian Demographic Statistics, December Quarter 2015 (cat. no. 3101.0) scheduled for released on 23 June 2016. The data has been used to produce final NOM from June quarter 2013 onwards. As expected, it made no change to the final NOM estimates. Where do I look for more information? Information on the upgrade to the OAD system is available in Section 3 of the Data Quality Issues (Appendix 2) in the left hand side navigation bar under the Explanatory Notes tab in Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, March 2016 (cat. no. 3401.0).

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