• Summary
• Downloads
• Explanatory Notes
• Related Information
• Past Releases

JULY KEY FIGURES

	May 2004	June 2004	July 2004	Jun 04 to Jul 04
	$m	$m	$m	% change
Trend
Balance on goods & services	-2,067	-2,192	-2,361	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	12,652	12,901	13,084	1
Debits (imports of goods & services)	14,719	15,093	15,445	2
Seasonally Adjusted
Balance on goods & services	-1,854	-2,222	-2,748	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	12,865	13,272	12,837	-3
Debits (imports of goods & services)	14,719	15,494	15,585	1
. . not applicable

Balance on goods and services

• The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,361m in July 2004, an increase of $169m on the deficit in June.
• Goods and services credits rose $183m (1%) to $13,084m. Non-rural and other goods rose $116m (2%) and rural goods rose $78m (3%). Services credits fell $11m.
• Goods and services debits rose $352m (2%) to $15,445m. Capital goods rose $144m (5%), intermediate and other goods rose $119m (2%) and consumption goods rose $59m (2%). Services debits rose $30m (1%).

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,748m in July, an increase of $526m on the deficit in June.
• Goods and services credits fell $435m (3%) to $12,837m. Non-rural and other goods fell $298m (4%) and rural goods fell $174m (6%). Services credits rose $37m (1%).
• Goods and services debits rose $91m (1%) to $15,585m. Intermediate and other goods rose $212m (4%), capital goods rose $49m (2%), while consumption goods fell $182m (5%). Services debits rose $12m.

• In original terms, the July balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,149m, a decrease of $558m on the deficit in June. Goods and services credits rose $490m (4%), while goods and services debits fell $68m.
• Non-rural and other goods were up $0.9b (12%) and rural goods were up $0.7b (42%) on the corresponding period in 2003-04.

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Some changes to the content of this publication have been introduced. These changes include the addition of two new memorandum items - Tourism indicators for services credits and debits. The indicators are derived by aggregating various tourism related service components compiled as part of the standard presentation. The memorandum items are included in Tables 5 and 6 of the publication, with current price original, seasonally adjusted and trend series provided. Users should be aware that the seasonal factors for the tourism indicators were derived from series up to July 2004, whereas the seasonal factors for the services series were generated from the annual seasonal reanalysis in October 2003. For a more detailed explanation of these two new indicators, see paragraphs 15 and 16 of the explanatory notes.

CHANGES TO FORTHCOMING ISSUES

The ABS is in the process of introducing concurrent adjustment for all seasonally adjusted indicators in order to improve the accuracy and consistency of the seasonally adjusted estimates. The existing method of estimating seasonally adjusted and trend estimates on goods and services uses forward factors which were generated as part of the annual reanalysis in October 2003 while the concurrent adjustment method uses the data available at the current reference month to estimate seasonal factors for the current and previous months. In assessing the impact of concurrent adjustment on the seasonally adjusted series, the latest data up to the July 2004 reference month was used to estimate seasonal factors for the current and previous months and applied to the monthly goods and services series. The concurrent seasonal adjustment method produced a rise of a similar magnitude in the balance of goods and services deficit as with the forward factor method. However the compositional effects were quite different, with both a decrease in exports and an increase in imports contributing significantly to the increase in the deficit on goods and services compared to the decrease in exports being the main contributor when using the forward factor method. The ABS will introduce concurrent adjustment for the seasonally adjusted monthly indicators in the October 2004 issue of this publication.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on (02) 6252 6792.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in July 2004 was a deficit of $2,361m, an increase of $169m on the deficit in June.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in July 2004 was a deficit of $2,748m, an increase of $526m on the deficit in June.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $183m (1%) in July to $13,084m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $435m (3%) in July to $12,837m. Non-rural and other goods fell $298m (4%), rural goods fell $174m (6%), while services credits rose $37m (1%).

Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, rural goods fell $174m (6%) to $2,508m.

In original terms, rural goods fell $183m (7%) to $2,420m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted terms were:

• other rural, down $133m (12%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 2% over the previous three years
• wool and sheepskins, down $37m (13%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 9% over the previous three years
• meat and meat preparations, down $55m (9%), compared with an average June to July fall of 5% over the previous three years.

Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $116m (2%) to $7,689m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, non-rural and other goods fell $298m (4%) to $7,494m.

In original terms, non-rural and other goods fell $102m (1%) to $7,703m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted terms were:

• other non-rural, down $52m (6%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 16% over the previous three years
• metals (excl. gold), down $88m (11%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of less than 1% over the previous three years
• other manufactures, down $48m (4%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 1% over the previous three years.

• other goods, up $55m (10%), in contrast to an average June to July fall of 6% over the previous three years
• other mineral fuels, up $156m (22%), compared with an average June to July rise of 16% over the previous three years.

SERVICES CREDITS

Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $37m (1%) to $2,835m.

Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

• passenger and other transportation services, up $15m (3%)
• travel services, up $14m (1%)
• other services, up $7m (1%).

IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $352m (2%) in July to $15,445m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $91m (1%) to $15,585m.

Intermediate and other goods rose $212m (4%), capital goods rose $49m (2%) and services debits rose $12m, while consumption goods fell $182m (5%).

Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $182m (5%) to $3,836m.

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $202m (5%) to $3,996m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted terms were:

• non-industrial transport equipment, down $102m (9%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 7% over the previous three years
• consumption goods n.e.s., up $134m (12%), compared with an average June to July rise of 24% over the previous three years
• toys, books and leisure goods, down $16m (5%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 15% over the previous three years.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $49m (2%) to $3,237m.

In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $390m (11%) to $3,215m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted terms were:

• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $32m (8%), in contrast to an average June to July fall of 10% over the previous three years
• telecommunications equipment, down $17m (4%), compared with an average June to July fall of 14% over the previous three years
• an adjustment made as part of the regular seasonal adjustment process to take into account different trading day patterns in June and July, which contributed about 4 percentage points towards the overall rise.

• machinery and industrial equipment, down $48m (4%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 14% over the previous three years
• capital goods n.e.s., down $67m (15%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 13% over the previous three years.

In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports rose $212m (4%) to $5,481m.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods fell $48m (1%) to $5,215m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted terms were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $103m (11%), in contrast to an average June to July fall of 11% over the previous three years, due to increased volumes
• organic and inorganic chemicals, up $5m (2%), in contrast to an average June to July fall of 4% over the previous three years
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $8m (11%), compared with an average June to July rise of 6% over the previous three years.

• other parts for capital goods, down $98m (11%), in contrast to an average June to July rise of 6% over the previous three years
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $12m (1%), compared with an average June to July rise of 12% over the previous three years.

SERVICES DEBITS

Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $12m to $3,031m.

Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

• travel services, up $16m (2%)
• passenger and other transportation services, up $6m (1%).

• freight transportation services, down $6m (1%)
• other services, down $4m.