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SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

		Sep '06	Aug '06 to Sep '06	Sep '05 to Sep '06
		'000	% change	% change
Short-term visitor arrivals
	Trend	452.9	0.2	-0.8
	Seasonally adjusted	462.7	3.6	. .
	Original	426.2	. .	. .
Short-term resident departures
	Trend(a)	415.4	-	2.9
	Seasonally adjusted	410.4	-0.3	. .
	Original	491.3	. .	. .
. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Break in trend series from October 2005.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term

SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

• Trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during September 2006 (452,900 movements) increased by 0.2% compared with August 2006. This followed a monthly decrease of 0.2% for July 2006 and a minimal decrease for August 2006.
• Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.0% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2006 (462,300 movements) and 0.8% lower than in September 2005.
• During September 2006, short-term resident departures (415,400 movements) showed little change from August 2006 (415,300 movements). This followed monthly increases of 0.6% for July 2006 and 0.3% for August 2006.
• The rate of growth in the short-term resident departures trend series has slowed in recent months, following a period of consistent growth shortly after the trend break in October 2005.

• Seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals during September 2006 (462,700 movements) increased by 3.6% compared with August 2006 and followed monthly decreases of 2.2% for July 2006 and 0.5% for August 2006.
• Short-term resident departures for September 2006 (410,400 movements) decreased by 0.3% compared with August 2006 and followed a monthly decrease of 5.2% for July 2006 and a monthly increase of 0.4% for August 2006.

• In original movement terms, there were 426,200 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 491,300 short-term resident departures from Australia during September 2006.

DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

The statistics in this publication have been rounded to the nearest 100 for short-term movements and to the nearest 10 for permanent and long-term movements. As a result, sums of the components may not add exactly to totals. Analysis featured in the Key Points and Main Features of this publication is based on unrounded data. Calculations made on rounded data may differ to those published.

CHANGES IN THE ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

TAKE CARE

Short-term resident departures to Lebanon - As a result of the major conflict between Israel and Hizbollah in Lebanon in July and August 2006, there has been a large downward movement in the seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term resident departures to Lebanon. This has caused some uncertainty in the trend estimates from August 2006. As the underlying behaviour of the series cannot be accurately estimated due to this change, users should be aware that a longer span of data is required before the effects of the changes in the series, and hence the final trend for this series, can be determined.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.

MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in September 2006 (452,900 movements) were 0.2% higher than in August 2006 and 0.8% lower than in September 2005. Short-term visitor arrivals are currently 2.0% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2006 (462,300 movements).

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during September 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with August 2006 and September 2005.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - September 2006
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Aug 06 to Sep 06	Sep 05 to Sep 06
	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	86.7	90.0	114.4	-0.7	-3.9
Japan	53.5	54.4	52.1	1.6	-7.3
United Kingdom	55.9	57.6	41.2	-0.7	-4.2
United States of America	38.2	40.4	30.0	0.1	3.7
China	26.5	27.2	21.7	1.3	13.3
Korea	22.8	24.0	19.2	2.3	12.6
Singapore	23.2	24.0	18.3	3.2	3.1
Germany	12.1	12.1	11.9	-1.2	-3.1
Malaysia	11.6	9.5	10.5	-1.2	-14.9
Hong Kong	12.8	12.8	10.3	-0.5	-5.4

The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during September 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with August 2006 and September 2005.

A trend break was introduced from October 2005 (see Explanatory Note 22). In original terms, short-term resident departures to Indonesia ranked 4th in September 2005 and fell from the top ten in December 2005. In September 2006 short-term resident departures to Indonesia were ranked in 7th position.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - September 2006
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Aug 06 to Sep 06	Sep 05 to Sep 06
	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	73.2	72.3	78.4	1.0	4.5
United States of America	36.9	36.6	46.6	-0.2	0.7
United Kingdom	36.2	35.2	44.1	-0.2	7.8
China	21.8	21.3	30.3	0.2	7.0
Thailand	24.1	24.0	29.6	-0.1	35.4
Fiji	17.5	17.3	21.3	0.7	6.5
Indonesia(a)	14.4	14.3	19.7	-2.6	-48.4
Italy	9.2	8.6	17.0	-0.6	15.0
Malaysia	13.0	13.9	16.6	-0.8	0.5
Singapore	16.5	16.2	16.4	-1.6	1.6
(a) Break in trend series from October 2005.

SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - KOREA

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates for September 2006 show the number of short-term visitor arrivals from Korea represented 5% (22,800 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Over the ten year period to September 2006 the trend has mainly been upward with the high point being the current month and the low point in March 1998, during the Asian financial crisis. The September 2006 trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals from Korea was 2% higher than in August 2006 and 13% higher than in September 2005.

KOREA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals

In original terms, short-term visitor arrivals from Korea in September 2006 stated holiday (66%) as their main reason for journey followed by visiting friends and relatives (11%) and education (8%). In comparison, the main reasons for journey for all short-term visitors to Australia were holiday (51%), visiting friends and relatives (20%) and business (12%). The median age of short-term visitor arrivals from Korea was 35 years (40 years for all visitors) and the median intended duration of stay was 7 days (10 days for all visitors).

New South Wales (68%), Queensland (20%) and Victoria (8%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitors from Korea in September 2006. The main destinations for all short-term visitors to Australia were New South Wales (37%), Queensland (34%) and Victoria (16%).

Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates for September 2006 show that the number of short-term resident departures to Korea represented 1% (2,500 movements) of all short-term resident departures. Between September 1996 and September 1999 the trend series was relatively stable. While the trend series has fluctuated since that period there has been a small increase in the trend level. However, as illustrated by the graph, there is considerable variation in the seasonally adjusted series. The series high was in March 2006 (2,700 movements) while the ten year low point was in December 1997 (1,300 movements). The September 2006 trend estimate was 1% lower than in August 2006 and 1% higher than in September 2005.

KOREA, Short-term Resident Departures

PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 11,700 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during September 2006, an increase of 5.1% compared with September 2005 (11,140 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (19%), followed by people born in New Zealand (14%), India (9%) and China (8%).

There were 4,890 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during September 2006, an increase of 3.1% compared with September 2005 (4,740 movements).

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for the United States of America shows the large increase in the seasonally adjusted series for short-term visitor arrivals in September 2000, during the Olympic Games in Sydney. For New Zealand the graph shows a small decline in the trend series following the recent plateau in growth after strong increases which commenced in early 2003. The graph for Japan shows the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series in mid-2003.

United States of America



New Zealand



Japan

United States of America



New Zealand


Indonesia