JULY KEY FIGURES
 | | Jul '05 | Jun '05 to Jul '05 | Jul '04 to Jul '05 | |
| | '000 | % change | % change | |
| |
| Short-term visitor arrivals | | | | |
| Trend | 450.1 | -0.5 | 3.4 | |
| Seasonally adjusted | 455.6 | 0.9 | . . | |
| Original | 502.0 | . . | . . | |
| Short-term resident departures | | | | |
| Trend | 401.4 | 1.0 | 11.2 | |
| Seasonally adjusted | 396.5 | -3.6 | . . | |
| Original | 414.1 | . . | . . | |
| |
| . . not applicable |
Visitor arrivals, Short-term
| Resident departures, Short-term
|
JULY KEY POINTS
TREND ESTIMATES
- The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during July 2005 (450,100 movements) decreased by 0.5% compared with June 2005. This followed monthly decreases of 0.6% for May 2005 and 0.5% for June 2005.
- Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.5% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2005 (461,600 movements) and 3.4% higher than in July 2004.
- During July 2005, short-term resident departures (401,400 movements) increased by 1.0% when compared with June 2005. This followed monthly increases of 1.0% for May 2005 and 0.9% for June 2005.
- Currently, short-term resident departures are 39.8% higher than when the series last troughed in March 2003 (287,000 movements) and 11.2% higher than in July 2004.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals during July 2005 (455,600 movements) increased by 0.9% compared with June 2005. This followed a monthly decrease of 3.4% for May 2005 and a monthly increase of 2.0% for June 2005.
- Short-term resident departures for July 2005 (396,500 movements) decreased by 3.6% compared with June 2005 and followed monthly increases of 1.6% for May 2005 and 4.4% for June 2005.
ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
- In original movement terms, there were 502,000 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 414,100 short-term resident departures from Australia during July 2005.
NOTES
EARLY ESTIMATES
Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for August 2005 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 19 September 2005. These estimates can be accessed by going to the AusStats web page <https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats> and selecting Publications & Data and then Main Features. Select 34 Migration and then select Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).
DATA NOTES
This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
Calculations of percentage and numeric change are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 12 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
The seasonally adjusted and trend series have been updated following the normal annual review of the seasonal adjustment process. The annual review provides the opportunity to confirm the extent to which movements are due to seasonal or irregular influences. As a result, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of a small number of series have been revised. Additionally, as is normal, seasonally adjusted and trend series estimates may show minor revisions.
As a result of the review, seasonally adjusted series for short-term visitor arrivals from China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province), Ireland, the United Arab Emirates and Spain are now available for publication. The seasonally adjusted series for short-term resident departures to Norfolk Island, Vanuatu, Korea and Taiwan are also considered to be of publishable standard.
INQUIRIES
For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.
MAIN FEATURES
SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS
In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in July 2005 (450,100 movements) have increased by 3.4% when compared with July 2004. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 2.5% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2005 (461,600 movements). Prior to that month, short-term visitor arrivals had increased each month from February 2004 (424,900 movements).
The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during July 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with June 2005 and July 2004.
Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - July 2005 |
| |
| Trend | Seasonally Adjusted | Original | Jun 05 to Jul 05 | Jul 04 to Jul 05 | |
| '000 | '000 | '000 | Trend % change | Trend % change | |
| |
| New Zealand | 92.0 | 92.0 | 113.9 | -0.7 | 5.4 | |
| Japan | 49.8 | 52.0 | 56.0 | -2.6 | -14.5 | |
| United Kingdom | 57.7 | 59.1 | 49.2 | -1.0 | 0.4 | |
| United States of America | 38.0 | 38.2 | 46.2 | 0.1 | 2.7 | |
| China | 20.8 | 22.6 | 28.9 | 0.1 | 2.7 | |
| Korea | 21.6 | 20.1 | 22.6 | -1.3 | 20.4 | |
| Singapore | 23.5 | 24.2 | 19.3 | 0.3 | 17.4 | |
| Hong Kong | 14.0 | 13.7 | 17.3 | 1.8 | 26.1 | |
| Germany | 12.4 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 1.9 | 8.1 | |
| Taiwan | 9.6 | 9.8 | 13.2 | 0.7 | 16.5 | |
| |
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia in July 2005 (401,400 movements) have increased by 11.2% when compared with July 2004 and are 39.8% higher than when the series last troughed in March 2003 (287,000 movements).
The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates), for short-term resident departures during July 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with June 2005 and July 2004.
Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - July 2005 |
| |
| Trend | Seasonally Adjusted | Original | Jun 05 to Jul 05 | Jul 04 to Jul 05 | |
| '000 | '000 | '000 | Trend % change | Trend % change | |
| |
| New Zealand | 69.0 | 66.9 | 61.1 | - | 0.6 | |
| United Kingdom | 35.9 | 35.7 | 45.3 | 2.6 | 15.7 | |
| Indonesia | 29.3 | 28.3 | 35.8 | -1.3 | 10.3 | |
| United States of America | 35.0 | 34.8 | 31.4 | 0.5 | 9.8 | |
| Fiji | 16.3 | 16.5 | 19.0 | 0.2 | 14.3 | |
| Thailand | 15.7 | 15.7 | 17.2 | 1.9 | 5.4 | |
| Singapore | 15.1 | 15.1 | 16.7 | 1.3 | 17.3 | |
| China | 20.2 | 20.2 | 15.8 | 0.6 | 29.9 | |
| Hong Kong | 17.4 | 17.7 | 14.6 | 3.5 | 45.4 | |
| Malaysia | 12.9 | 12.9 | 14.3 | -2.6 | 14.1 | |
| |
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - CHINA (EXCLUDES SARS AND TAIWAN PROVINCE)
Short-term visitor arrivals
Trend estimates for July 2005 show the number of short-term visitor arrivals from China represented 5% (20,800 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Over the past ten years the trend has been mainly upwards, rising from a low in July 1995 (3,500 movements) to a high in December 2004 (24,000). The July trend estimate for arrivals from China was marginally higher than for June 2005 and 3% higher than for July 2004.
CHINA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals(a)
In original terms, visitors from China stated holiday (36%) as the main reason for journey, followed by education (32%). In comparison, the main reasons for visiting Australia for all visitors were holiday (51%) and visiting friends and relatives (17%). The median age of visitors from China was 29 years (34 years for all visitors) and the median duration of stay was 11 days for both visitors from China and all visitors arriving short-term.
New South Wales (42%) and Victoria (30%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for visitors from China. For all visitors the main destinations were New South Wales (38%) and Queensland (34%).
Short-term resident departures
Trend estimates show the number of residents departing Australia short-term for China represented 5% (20,200 movements) of all short-term resident departures in July 2005. Over the past ten years the trend has been mainly upwards, rising from a low in July 1996 (4,100 movements) to a high in July 2005 (20,200 movements). Consistently strong growth has been evident from November 2003. The July trend estimate for departures to China was 1% higher than for June 2005 and 30% higher than for July 2004.
CHINA, Short-term Resident Departures(a)
In original terms, 36% of Australian residents travelling to China stated business as their main reason for journey, followed by holiday (30%). For all residents departing Australia the main reasons for journey were holiday (49%) and visiting friends and relatives (24%). The median age of residents departing to China was 42 years (41 years for all residents) and the median intended duration of stay was 15 days for both residents departing to China and all residents departing short-term.
PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS
There were 9,970 permanent (settler) arrivals into Australia during July 2005, a decrease of 2.3% when compared with July 2004 (10,200 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (16%), followed by New Zealand (15%) and China (9%).
Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).
There were 5,510 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during July 2005, an increase of 11.6% when compared with July 2004 (4,940 movements).
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE
The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES
INTRODUCTION
Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases, the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.
ANNUAL RE-ANALYSIS
The seasonally adjusted and trend series have been updated following the normal annual review of the seasonal adjustment process. The annual review provides the opportunity to confirm the extent to which movements are due to seasonal or irregular influences. As a result, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of a small number of series have been revised. Additionally, as is normal, all seasonally adjusted and trend series estimates may show minor revisions.
SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS
Selected source countries
The graphs presented below illustrate the long-term increase in the trend series for arrivals from the United Kingdom and New Zealand and the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on arrivals from Japan earlier in 2003.
United Kingdom
New Zealand
Japan
SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES
Selected destinations
For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect that the terrorist attacks in that country on 11 September 2001 had on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that departures of Australian residents, which had been trending upwards since May 2003, have stalled. For Indonesia the graph shows a return to expected resident departures levels after the influence of the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004.
United States of America
New Zealand
Indonesia
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