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JANUARY KEY FIGURES

	November 2006	December 2006	January 2007	Dec 06 to Jan 07
	$m	$m	$m	% change
TREND
Balance on goods and services	-1 062	-1 157	-1 192	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	17 874	17 898	17 967	-
Debits (imports of goods & services)	18 936	19 055	19 160	1
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Balance on goods and services	-889	-1 379	-876	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	17 915	17 773	18 119	2
Debits (imports of goods & services)	18 804	19 151	18 995	-1
. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services

• The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,192m in January 2007, an increase of $35m on the revised deficit in December 2006.
• Goods and services credits rose $69m to $17,967m. Goods and services debits rose $105m (1%) to $19,160m.

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $876m in January 2007, a decrease of $503m on the revised deficit in December 2006.
• Goods and services credits rose $346m (2%) to $18,119m. Non-rural and other goods rose $331m (3%) while rural goods fell $28m (1%). Services credits rose $44m (1%).
• Goods and services debits fell $156m (1%) to $18,995m. Capital goods fell $121m (3%), intermediate and other goods fell $67m (1%) while consumption goods rose $10m. Services debits rose $21m (1%).

• In original terms, the January 2007 balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,115m, an increase of $2,015m on the deficit in December 2006. Goods and services credits fell $1,990m (11%) while goods and services debits rose $25m.
• In the seven months to January, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $12.4b (17%) and rural goods were up $0.7b (5%) on the corresponding period in 2005-06.

CHANGES TO THIS ISSUE

The format of the datacube containing forward seasonal adjustment factors (table 90 Monthly forward seasonal adjustment factors) for this publication is to be changed to align with the current standard of excel spreadsheets (i.e. in .xls format). The new format will be available as table 91 and both tables 90 and 91 will be available for the January and February 2007 issues of 5368.0 with table 90 being withdrawn from the March 2007 issue.

CHANGES TO EXPORT AND IMPORT STATISTICAL CODES

As advised in previous issues, the implementation of an update to the international Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS) from January 2007 has resulted in revisions to statistical codes in the Australian Harmonized Export Commodity Classification (AHECC) and the Customs Tariff. Clients using detailed merchandise trade data will need to take these changes into consideration. Most of the data published are on an "as reported to Customs" basis as the ABS does not have the resources to check all import and export entries. While there have been some reporting issues identified, the ABS has found no evidence of a significant deterioration in the overall quality of reporting under the updated HS.

The HS changes could also impact on statistics presented according to related classifications. No significant impacts could be identified in series presented according to BOPBEC. However, it is not possible to be definitive about the impact on other series (such as SITC) because of the normal volatility in the series and the limitations of the available data.

Included with the Information Paper: Changes on 1 January 2007 to Statistical Codes in the AHECC and the Customs Tariff, 2007 (cat. no. 1233.0.55.001) are correspondences between the codes of the current and the updated version of the AHECC and Customs Tariff, and correspondences between the updated version of these classifications and related classifications. The correspondences can be used by clients to assess the impact on the detailed statistics.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Tom Jebbink on Canberra (02) 6252 5540.

SUMMARY COMMENTARY


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in January 2007 was a deficit of $1,192m, an increase of $35m on the deficit in December 2006.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in January 2007 was a deficit of $876m, a decrease of $503m on the deficit in December.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $69m between December 2006 and January 2007 to $17,967m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $346m (2%) to $18,119m. Non-rural goods rose $378m (3%) while other goods fell $47m (5%) and rural goods fell $28m (1%). Services credits rose $44m (1%).

Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods fell $28m (1%) to $2,094m.

The components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $45m (14%)
• other rural, down $21m (2%).

• wool and sheepskins, up $19m (8%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $18m (3%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

The trend estimate of non-rural goods exports rose $72m (1%) to $11,064m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $378m (3%) to $11,218m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, up $209m (12%)
• other manufactures, up $191m (15%)
• other non-rural, up $73m (6%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $1,401m (12%) to $10,113m.

OTHER GOODS

The trend estimate of other goods exports rose $14m (1%) to $962m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods fell $47m (5%) to $981m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted series was non-monetary gold, down $66m (7%), partly offset by goods for processing, up $22m.

In original terms, exports of other goods fell $47m (5%) to $975m.

Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS

Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $44m (1%) to $3,827m.

The components that contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel services, up $34m (2%)
• transportation services, up $12m (2%).

IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $105m (1%) between December 2006 and January 2007 to $19,160m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $156m (1%) to $18,995m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $181m (3%) and capital goods fell $121m (3%) while other goods rose $114m (22%) and consumption goods rose $10m. Services debits rose $21m (1%).

Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $10m to $4,646m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up $38m (3%)
• non-industrial transport equipment, up $18m (1%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $18m to $4,362m.

CAPITAL GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose $51m (1%) to $3,534m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $121m (3%) to $3,467m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was civil aircraft, down $219m.

Partly offsetting this effect were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, up $40m (3%)
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $40m (7%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $14m to $6,629m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $181m (3%) to $6,528m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, down $341m (18%), with volumes of crude oil imports down 10%
• other merchandise goods, down $70m (45%)
• food and beverages, mainly for industry, down $40m (39%).

• organic and inorganic chemicals, up $129m (48%)
• other parts for capital goods, up $125m (13%)
• iron and steel, up $52m (17%).

OTHER GOODS

The trend estimate of imports of other goods fell $7m (1%) to $601m.

In both original and seasonally adjusted terms, other goods imports rose $114m (22%) to $643m.

The main component contributing to the rise in these estimates was non-monetary gold, up $152m (57%), partly offset by goods for processing, down $36m (40%).

Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS

Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $21m (1%) to $3,711m.

The main components that contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel services, up $24m (2%)
• transportation services, up $12m (1%).

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits fell $35m (2%) to $1,919m. This series is seasonally adjusted independently to the series that comprise services debits.