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OCTOBER KEY FIGURES

		Oct '06	Sep '06 to Oct '06	Oct '05 to Oct '06
		'000	% change	% change
Short-term visitor arrivals
	Trend	460.3	0.7	0.9
	Seasonally adjusted	467.2	0.9	. .
	Original	476.2	. .	. .
Short-term resident departures
	Trend(a)	417.0	-0.1	5.9
	Seasonally adjusted	423.7	2.9	. .
	Original	391.0	. .	. .
. . not applicable
(a) Break in trend series from October 2005.

Visitor arrivals, Short-term

Resident departures, Short-term

OCTOBER KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES

• Trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during October 2006 (460,300 movements) increased by 0.7% compared with September 2006. This followed monthly increases of 0.4% for August 2006 and 0.6% for September 2006.
• Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 1.7% higher than when the series last troughed in June 2006 (452,600 movements) and 0.9% higher than in October 2005.
• During October 2006, short-term resident departures (417,000 movements) were marginally lower than in September 2006. This followed monthly increases of 0.4% for August 2006 and 0.3% for September 2006.
• The marginal decrease in short-term resident departures in October 2006 followed eight months of growth, which slowed in recent months. A break in series was introduced in October 2005 following the Bali bombing in that month.

• Seasonally adjusted estimates for short-term visitor arrivals during October 2006 (467,200 movements) increased by 0.9% compared with September 2006 and followed a monthly decrease of 0.2% for August 2006 and a monthly increase of 3.5% for September 2006.
• Short-term resident departures for October 2006 (423,700 movements) increased by 2.9% compared with September 2006 and followed a monthly increase of 0.3% for August 2006 and a minimal decrease for September 2006.

• In original movement terms, there were 476,200 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 391,000 short-term resident departures from Australia during October 2006.

DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

The statistics in this publication have been rounded to the nearest 100 for short-term movements and to the nearest 10 for permanent and long-term movements. As a result, sums of the components may not add exactly to totals. Analysis featured in the Key Points and Main Features of this publication is based on unrounded data. Calculations made on rounded data may differ to those published.

CHANGES IN THE ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.

MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in October 2006 (460,300 movements) were 0.7% higher than in September 2006 and 0.9% higher than in October 2005. Short-term visitor arrivals are currently 1.7% higher than when the series last troughed in June 2006 (452,600 movements).

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during October 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with September 2006 and October 2005.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - October 2006
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Sep 06 to Oct 06	Oct 05 to Oct 06
	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	87.2	88.8	97.0	-0.1	-3.3
United Kingdom	56.6	57.7	60.4	0.1	-2.3
Japan	55.3	55.5	55.0	2.0	-5.7
United States of America	37.3	36.9	33.3	-0.5	2.9
China	27.4	27.8	23.9	1.7	14.3
Korea	24.2	25.1	23.4	3.0	21.8
Singapore	23.3	22.3	20.9	1.6	5.4
Malaysia	12.4	13.9	15.2	0.7	-7.6
Germany	11.8	11.7	15.1	-1.6	-4.7
Indonesia	6.9	6.8	12.7	1.1	-0.4

The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during October 2006. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the percentage change in trend compared with September 2006 and October 2005.

A trend break was introduced from October 2005 (see Explanatory Note 22). In original terms, short-term resident departures to Indonesia ranked 4th in September 2005 and fell from the top ten in December 2005. In October 2006 (the first anniversary of the October 2005 Bali bombing) short-term resident departures to Indonesia were ranked in 9th position.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - October 2006
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Sep 06 to Oct 06	Oct 05 to Oct 06
	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	75.3	76.7	68.6	1.2	7.8
United States of America	37.5	38.2	34.9	0.3	1.9
Thailand	23.9	23.9	30.6	-0.3	25.8
United Kingdom	35.0	34.6	25.8	-1.3	4.1
China	21.4	21.9	25.5	-1.3	6.4
Fiji	17.9	18.6	21.5	0.4	7.9
Hong Kong	17.6	17.9	17.5	2.2	12.5
Singapore	16.9	17.4	16.2	-	2.4
Indonesia(a)	13.7	13.7	15.4	-3.5	-20.7
Malaysia	13.2	13.7	13.2	-	-0.9
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Break in trend series from October 2005.

SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - CANADA

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates for October 2006 show the number of short-term visitor arrivals from Canada represented 2% (9,200 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Over the ten year period to October 2006 the trend, while fluctuating, has been upward. The high point during this period was in April 2006 (9,500 movements) and the low point was in October 1996 (4,900). The October 2006 trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals from Canada was similar to September 2006 and 9% higher than in October 2005.

CANADA, Short-term Visitor Arrivals

New South Wales (46%), Queensland (22%) and Victoria (18%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitors from Canada in October 2006. The main destinations for all short-term visitors to Australia were New South Wales (39%), Queensland (28%) and Victoria (17%).

Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates for October 2006 show that the number of short-term resident departures to Canada represented 2% (8,100 movements) of all short-term resident departures. Between October 1996 and October 2006 the trend series, while fluctuating, was upwards. In March 2003 the series fell abruptly (to 5,100 movements) but quickly regained its upwards momentum. This fall coincided with the anticipation and commencement of military action in Iraq and the emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). The highest points in the series over the past ten years were recorded between June 2006 and October 2006 (each 8,100 movements) while the low point was in January 1997 (3,900 movements). The October 2006 trend estimate was similar to September 2006 and 12% higher than in October 2005.

CANADA, Short-term Resident Departures

PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 11,470 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during October 2006, an increase of 3.7% compared with October 2005 (11,050 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (20%), followed by people born in New Zealand (15%), India (9%) and China (7%).

There were 5,010 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during October 2006, an increase of 1.8% compared with October 2005 (4,920 movements).

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of overseas arrivals and departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graph for the United States of America shows the large increase in the seasonally adjusted series for short-term visitor arrivals in September 2000, during the Olympic Games in Sydney. For New Zealand the graph shows a small decline in the trend series following the recent plateau in growth after strong increases which commenced in early 2003. The graph for Japan shows the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the seasonally adjusted arrivals series in mid-2003.

United States of America

New Zealand

Japan

United States of America

New Zealand

Indonesia