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Provisional Mortality Statistics

Latest release

Provisional deaths data for measuring changes in patterns of mortality

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Reference period
Jan - Sep 2024

Key statistics

  • 141,232 deaths occurred between January and September 2024, 2.6% more than 2023 but 3.0% fewer than 2022.
  • 14,932 deaths occurred in September 2024, comparable to 2023 but 5.4% fewer than 2022.
  • There were 148 deaths due to COVID-19 in September 2024, down from the June peak of 675 (see article).

Since April 2024 there have been changes in how provisional mortality data is presented. These changes have been outlined in previous publications. April 2024 was selected as the time frame to implement changes as it coincides with the beginning of the reporting period for deaths occurring in 2024. The format of these reports will take account of the following factors.  

  • Deaths are no longer compared to a "baseline average". The ABS now releases official Excess mortality estimates every six months. Estimates to December 2023 are included in this publication and can be accessed from the articles link. These estimates are modelled from a historical baseline accounting for age structure and population. With this report available, the baseline constructed from an average count of deaths which was previously included in the Provisional Mortality Report is no longer necessary. The latest excess mortality estimates are available in the article ‘Measuring Australia’s excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic until December 2023’, published on 28 June 2024. 
  • Mortality from influenza and respiratory syncytial virus is analysed alongside COVID-19. The Director-General of the World Health Organization called an end to the emergency phase of the pandemic in May 2023. In line with this, the information presented can be changed to reflect changing data needs. As the pandemic has progressed it is important to consider not only the impact of COVID-19 alone, but also that of other active acute respiratory infections. This additional information is included in the attached article: 'Deaths due to COVID-19, influenza and RSV in Australia - 2022 - November 2024'.

Previous year comparisons

Deaths for 2024 will have two comparisons points - they will be compared to deaths occurring in 2023 and 2022. 

This publication does not provide official estimates of excess mortality. The ABS publishes official excess mortality estimates in the report Measuring Australia’s excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic until December 2023’.

Age-standardised death rates can be accessed via the data downloads tab in this publication. 

Counts of deaths for 2015-2023 are included in the historical data cubes of the data downloads section of this report. Customised datasets are able to be created from these data cubes. 

Provisional mortality data

The ABS publishes two regular reports that provide preliminary information on mortality - Provisional Mortality Statistics and Deaths due to Selected acute respiratory infections. These reports provide information on different time periods and serve different purposes.

Provisional Mortality Statistics focus on monitoring patterns of mortality (by all-causes and specified leading causes of death) and highlight any changes potentially associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Data must be sufficiently complete to detect such changes, and as such these reports are only released once the majority of deaths that occurred in a particular period have been registered and reported.

Deaths due to COVID-19, influenza and RSV in Australia articles focus on all deaths registered and reported with these acute respiratory infections written on the death certificate up until a specified time. These articles include important information about these acute respiratory infection certified deaths, including demographic details. While it is recognised data will be incomplete, it can still indicate emerging trends or changes among these deaths. The most recent article on deaths due to these selected acute respiratory disease, that occurred and were registered up until 30 November 2024 can be accessed through the articles link on this page.

Australian deaths by week

All-cause deaths

For all deaths:

  • In 2024, there were 141,232 deaths that occurred by 30 September and were registered by 30 November. This is 3,600 deaths (2.6%) more than in 2023, but 4,300 (3.0%) fewer than in 2022.
  • 14,932 deaths occurred in September 2024. This is 45 deaths (0.3%) more than in 2023, but 851 (5.4%) fewer than in 2022.
  • 13,100 of the deaths occurring in September 2024 were doctor certified and 1,832 were coroner referred.
  • The age-standardised death rate (SDR) for September was 40.1 deaths per 100,000 people, below death rates for both 2022 (45.0) and 2023 (41.3). 

Deaths are presented by counts only. Counts of death do not account for changes in population. See data downloads for weekly and monthly age-standardised death rate calculations. 

  1. Data is by occurrence.
  2. Data is provisional and subject to change.
  3. Weeks are defined as seven-day periods which start on a Monday as per the ISO week date system. Refer to 'Weekly comparisons' on the methodology page of this publication for more information regarding the data in this graph. Week 1 ended 9 Jan 2022, 8 Jan 2023 and 7 Jan 2024.

Age-specific death rates

The following table shows age-specific death rates (deaths per 100,000 population) for different age groups by sex in September 2024, presented with both those from 2023 and 2022. All references to "death rates" in this section refer to age-specific death rates. 

September 2024

  • Across all age groups, death rates were lower in September 2024 compared to the same month in 2023 and 2022. For September 2022, death rates ranged between 8.7% to 17.0% lower across all ages groups. For September 2023, the largest decrease was in death rates for the three youngest age groups where the decreased ranged between 5.6% to 6.4%. The decrease in death rates for older age groups was much closer. Those aged 75 to 84 years recorded 1.0% decrease and the death rate for those aged 85 years or older was 1.3% lower. 
  • For males, death rates for all age groups in September 2024 were 7.1% to 17.0% lower than 2022 and 0.6% to 9.4% lower than in 2023.
  • For females, the death rate for those aged 45 to 64 years was 1.5% higher in September 2024 than in September 2022, but the death rates for all other age groups were 9.5% to 17.1% lower.  The death rate for those aged 45 to 64 years was 6.3% lower in September 2024 than in September 2023, while the death rates for all other age groups were broadly comparable.
  • For all age groups, the male death rate is higher than the female death rate, with the rate ratio being largest in the youngest age group and smallest in the oldest age group.

Year to date, January to September 2024

  • Across all age groups, death rates were 6.1% to 9.8% lower in the year to September for 2024 than in 2022. The death rate for those aged 75 to 84 years was 2.2% lower in 2024 than in 2023, while the death rates for all other age groups were comparable to those in 2023.
  • For males, death rates for all age groups were 5.4% to 10.9% lower in the year to September for 2024 than 2022. The death rate for those aged 75 to 84 years was 2.8% lower in 2024 than in 2023, while the death rate for those aged under 45 years was 1.7% higher. The death rates for all other age groups were comparable to those in 2023.
  • For females, death rates for all age groups were 7.0% to 9.2% lower in the year to September for 2024 than 2022. Death rates for all age groups were 0.3% to 4.9% lower in the year to September for 2024 than 2023, with the exception of those aged 85 and over (0.5% higher in 2024 than 2023). 
Age specific rates, 2024, 2023, 2022 (a) (b) (c) (d)
 SeptemberJanuary - September
 202420232022202420232022
Persons 
0-443.5983.8284.33437.00137.25839.666
45-6426.98428.81629.838259.021257.959275.755
65-7488.05593.27896.422851.335858.153913.660
75-84262.742265.422290.5872,463.1302,518.7462,718.245
85 and over1,056.3421,070.7251,209.4249,993.1049,974.77311,079.941
All ages54.57955.50460.329519.144516.465559.429
Males 
0-444.4304.8925.33547.76246.97150.544
45-6433.26835.52839.388326.733323.956345.555
65-74111.230122.662119.7171,073.1291,076.9581,146.645
75-84313.336315.314345.5542,917.4663,001.0443,275.755
85 and over1,131.0391,159.9641,294.47010,671.42410,708.47611,962.802
All ages57.36759.12563.439547.279544.884590.133
Females 
0-442.7402.7343.30625.91827.26528.496
45-6420.93222.34420.617193.788194.293208.335
65-7466.79066.21974.838647.624656.459697.357
75-84217.646220.802241.4412,057.5662,087.2762,219.764
85 and over1,005.8881,011.2441,153.7439,537.2429,487.86510,504.921
All ages51.83051.93357.265491.405488.446529.179

a. Data is by occurrence.
b. Data is provisional and subject to change.
c. Doctor certified and coroner referred deaths are included.
d. Age-specific death rates reflect deaths per 100,000 of the estimated resident population (ERP).

Mortality by selected causes of death

Cause-specific mortality

The following analysis is based only on doctor certified deaths (i.e. coroner referred deaths are not included). Any changes in patterns of coroner referral could affect counts of doctor certified deaths. Some conditions have higher coroner referral rates (ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases and to a lesser extent, respiratory diseases and diabetes) so counts for those conditions would be more likely to be affected by such changes.

COVID-19

  • In September 2024 there were 144 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor, down from the peak of 649 deaths in June. Deaths due to the virus in September 2024 were 3.4% lower than in September 2023 (149 deaths) and 66.2% lower than September 2022 (426 deaths). 
  • Between January and September 2024 there have been 3,179 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor. This is 7.5% fewer than in 2023 and 61.4% fewer than in 2022.
  • In September 2024 there were 47 people who died with COVID-19 being identified (via death certificates) as a contributing factor to their death (ie. COVID-19 was certified on the death certificate but it was not the underlying cause of death).

Other causes of death

  • Deaths due to respiratory diseases in September 2024 were 17.7% higher than in 2023 and 7.1% higher than in 2022. Deaths due to chronic respiratory infections were 18.5% higher than in 2023 and 5.8% higher than in 2022. Deaths due to influenza and pneumonia were 17.0% higher in September 2024 than September 2023 and 11.2% higher than September 2022.
  • For the year to September 2024, respiratory disease deaths were 14.5% higher than 2023 and 12.0% higher than in 2022.  Deaths due to influenza and pneumonia in 2024 were 33.6% higher than 2023 and 34.1% higher than 2022. Deaths due to chronic lower respiratory diseases in 2024 were 11.1% higher than in 2023 and 6.5% higher than in 2022.
  • Deaths due to ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular diseases were substantially lower in September 2024 than in September 2022.
Doctor certified deaths by cause, 2024, 2023, 2022 (a)(b)
 SeptemberJanuary - September
 202420232022202420232022
Cancer4,0534,1324,12538,57138,17937,923
Dementia1,4581,3831,40013,62312,93013,592
Respiratory diseases1,4091,1971,31512,16710,62510,866
 Chronic lower respiratory diseases7806587376,4145,7746,020
 Influenza and pneumonia2692302422,7102,0292,021
  Pneumonia2202022382,0321,7261,746
Ischaemic heart disease1,0131,1221,2779,55810,16811,513
Other cardiac conditions8919109237,8287,6787,765
Cerebrovascular diseases7137038116,5266,7237,145
Diabetes4584604804,0404,1234,301
COVID-191441494263,1793,4388,236

a. Only doctor certified deaths are included.
b. Data is by date of occurrence.

Timeliness and completeness of data

Each death registration in the national mortality dataset has 3 dates:

  • The date on which the death occurred.
  • The date on which the death was registered with the jurisdictional Registry of Births Deaths and Marriages (RBDM).
  • The date on which the death was lodged with the ABS. 

When looking to measure change over time, the completeness of data for the most recent period is important. When data is received each month by the ABS, the lag between the date of death and the date of registration means that approximately 40-50% of reported registrations are of deaths that occurred in the month being reported. The remainder are deaths that occurred in earlier months.

In November 2024, the ABS received 14,876 death registrations. Of these, 14,816 deaths occurred in 2024, 32 occurred in 2023 and the remaining 28 occurred in 2022 or earlier years.

For deaths which are doctor certified, approximately 95% of registrations are received after a second month of reporting, while for coroner certified deaths, the proportion of registrations reported after a second month is lower (approximately 80%). This is because it takes longer for coroners to certify deaths due to the complexity of investigations.

As coroner referred deaths make up a smaller proportion of all deaths (approximately 11-14%) their inclusion in all-cause data only reduces the overall completeness by around 2%. This should be considered when making comparisons with historical counts, noting also that the level of completeness will be higher for the start of any given month than the end of that month. 

This pattern of registration and reporting is highlighted in the table below, which also shows the slight variation in reporting timelines by cause of death.

Estimated completeness of death registrations received by the ABS (a)(b)(c)

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Estimated completeness of death registrations received by the ABS (a)(b)(c)
 Total proportion reported at the end of
Cause of deaththe month the death occurred (%)the month after the death occurred (%)two months after the death occurred (%)
All cause - doctor and coroner certified43.493.297.6
All cause - doctor certified only46.195.198.5
All cause - coroner certified only24.580.091.1
Ischaemic heart disease (I20 – I25)44.894.898.3
Other cardiac conditions (I26 – I51)46.095.498.7
Cerebrovascular diseases (I60 – I69)46.795.598.8
Respiratory diseases (J00 – J99)46.296.099.0
Chronic lower respiratory diseases (J40 – J47)45.294.298.1
Influenza and pneumonia (J09 – J18)46.395.398.6
Cancer (C00 – C97, D45, D46, D47.1, D47.3 – D47.5)47.495.798.7
Diabetes (E10 – E14)44.192.497.0
Dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease (F01, F03, G30, G31.0, G31.8)46.695.898.9

a. Percentages are based on the date registrations were received by the ABS for deaths that occurred in 2019-2023.
b. Only doctor certified deaths are included for cause-specific data.
c. Data is provisional and subject to change.

The graphs below show how numbers of deaths for each period have increased over time as additional registrations that occurred in previous months are reported to the ABS. Due to these increases, data for the most recently reported periods should be treated with caution.

Data downloads

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Provisional Mortality Statistics, Jan - Sep 2024

Data files

Previous catalogue number

This release previously used catalogue number 3303.0.55.004

Methodology

Provisional Mortality Statistics methodology, Jan - Sep 2024

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