POPULATION AGEING IN VICTORIA

Population ageing is an issue of national interest, and the trend of structural population ageing has been occurring in both Australia and Victoria as the median age of the population increases. Population ageing is characterised by an upwards shift in the age structure, with the proportion of younger people declining as the proportion of older people increases. At 30 June 2009, 13.6% of the population of Victoria was aged 65 years and over (Population by Age and Sex, Regions of Australia, 2009, cat. no. 3235.0) and this figure is expected to reach 23.1% in 2056 (Population Projections, Australia 2006-2101, cat. no. 3222.0, Series B). These proportions are greater outside of the Melbourne Statistical Division (MSD), where at June 2009, 16.2% of the population was aged 65 years and over, and by 2056, that proportion is projected to increase to 29.3% of the population.


Age Composition

The age composition of the Victorian population has changed in recent years. The graph below shows the proportion of population by age group for MSD and Balance of Victoria (BoV). It shows a higher proportion of the population in BoV are aged 45 years and over, when compared to MSD. Whereas, for people aged between 20 and 44 years the proportion of population is higher in MSD. At 30 June 2009, 12.6% of the population in MSD were aged 65 years and over compared to 16.2% of the population in BoV. Over the five years since 30 June 2004, the proportion of population aged 65 years and over in MSD increased by 0.2 percentage points compared to 1.0 percentage point in BoV, an indication that the population of BoV is ageing faster.

In contrast, the proportion of children (aged 0-14) declinied in both regions. Although the proportion of children was higher in BoV (19.4%) compared to MSD (18.2%) as at 30 June 2009, between 2004 and 2009 it declined faster in BoV, than in MSD (-1.5 and -0.7 percentage points, respectively).

The proportion of population aged 65 years and over varied among Statistical Divisions (SDs) in Victoria. In both 2004 and 2009, MSD recorded the lowest proportion of people aged 65 years and over (12.5% in 2004 and 12.6% in 2009). In both periods, the largest proportions of population aged 65 years and over were recorded in Wimmera and East Gippsland. In 2009, Wimmera had the highest proportion (19.9%) of population aged 65 years and over.

Between 2004 and 2009, all SDs experienced an increase in the proportion of population aged 65 years and over. The East Gippsland SD experienced the largest increase (1.7 percentage points) in proportion of population aged 65 years and over followed by Ovens Murray (1.4), and Goulburn and Gippsland (both 1.3). The smallest increases were experienced by Melbourne (0.2 percentage points), Barwon (0.4) and Western District (0.7).

Among Victoria's Local Government Areas (LGAs) the highest proportion of people aged 65 years and over at 30 June 2009 was recorded in Queenscliffe (B) (32.4%) followed by Hindmarsh (S) (24.9%) and Yarriambiack (S) (24.4%). Queenscliffe also recorded the highest proportion (30.0%) in 2004. The fifteen LGAs with the highest proportion of people age 65 years and over are all located in BoV. Melbourne (C) (5.6%), Melton (S) (5.9%) and Wyndham (C) (6.0%) recorded the lowest proportion of persons people aged 65 years and over in 2009.



Fertility Rates

The total fertility rate (TFR) is the sum of age-specific fertility rates (live births at each age of mother per female population of that age), divided by 1,000. It represents the number of children a female would bear during her lifetime if she experienced current age-specific fertility rates at each age of her reproductive life.

Since 1971 there has been an overall decrease in fertility rates for both Australia and Victoria. Fertility rates for Victoria have been slightly lower than the national rate for the entire period (1971 to 2008). From 1980 to 2002, the Victorian rate has shown volatility (from 1.610 in 2001 to 1.863 in 1990) and from 2003 it has started to increase, reaching 1.861 in 2008.

Life Expectancy

Life expectancy has an impact on the age profile of a community and the following graph shows the pattern of life expectancy at birth for males and females in Victoria from 1988 to 2008. Over the period, life expectancy at birth for males increased by 6.0 years, from 73.6 to 79.6 and female life expectancy increased by 4.0 years from 79.9 to 83.9. In 1988, the difference between male and female life expectancy was 6.3 years, however, the difference has narrowed over the last two decades to 4.3 years in 2008.

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