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This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.


NOVEMBER 2003 KEY POINTS

Trend

The rate of growth of the trend estimate for total sales of new motor vehicles has slowed over the last six months. The trend estimate decreased by 0.2% to 79,332 in November 2003 compared with October 2003. From November 2002 to November 2003 the trend estimate increased by 12.3%.

Tasmania (2.8%), Queensland (0.5%) and South Australia (0.3%) were the only states to record a growth in the trend estimate for sales of total new motor vehicles in November 2003. The Australian Capital Territory (0.7%) recorded the largest fall.

Trend estimates for the sales of total passenger vehicles fell by 0.5% and total other vehicles rose by 0.5%.

Seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjusted estimates of total new motor vehicle sales rose by 0.1% in November 2003 compared with October 2003. The largest increase was recorded for Victoria (1.8%) and the largest decrease was recorded for Tasmania (15.5%).


NOTES


CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

As advised in the October 2003 issue, concurrent seasonal adjustment has been introduced from November 2003. An explanation can be found in Explanatory Notes paragraph 8.


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

		Passenger vehicles (No.)	Other vehicles (No.)	Total vehicles (No.)	Change Passenger vehicles (%)	Change Other vehicles (%)	Change Total vehicles (%)
Original
2002	September	43,396	22,638	66,034	-3.8	-7.7	-5.2
	October	48,269	24,063	72,332	11.2	6.3	9.5
	November	47,229	24,346	71,575	-2.2	1.2	-1.0
	December	45,317	22,656	67,973	-4.0	-6.9	-5.0
2003	January	40,015	21,155	61,170	-11.7	-6.6	-10.0
	February	43,677	23,058	66,735	9.2	9.0	9.1
	March	49,921	26,192	76,113	14.3	13.6	14.1
	April	44,602	24,263	68,865	-10.7	-7.4	-9.5
	May	49,646	28,616	78,262	11.3	17.9	13.6
	June	57,086	34,972	92,058	15.0	22.2	17.6
	July	51,450	28,071	79,521	-9.9	-19.7	-13.6
	August	49,869	26,304	76,173	-3.1	-6.3	-4.2
	September	51,749	26,042	77,791	3.8	-1.0	2.1
	October	52,180	27,045	79,225	0.8	3.9	1.8
	November	48,482	27,630	76,112	-7.1	2.2	-3.9
Seasonally Adjusted
2002	September	45,698	25,009	70,707	1.3	0.8	1.1
	October	45,614	24,507	70,121	-0.2	-2.0	-0.8
	November	46,086	24,223	70,309	1.0	-1.2	0.3
	December	42,109	21,532	63,641	-8.6	-11.1	-9.5
2003	January	47,471	26,138	73,609	12.7	21.4	15.7
	February	46,876	24,892	71,768	-1.3	-4.8	-2.5
	March	48,196	25,697	73,893	2.8	3.2	3.0
	April	48,866	26,062	74,928	1.4	1.4	1.4
	May	50,048	26,881	76,929	2.4	3.1	2.7
	June	50,390	27,410	77,800	0.7	2.0	1.1
	July	49,950	27,832	77,782	-0.9	1.5	0.0
	August	51,563	27,356	78,919	3.2	-1.7	1.5
	September	53,021	27,813	80,834	2.8	1.7	2.4
	October	49,358	27,665	77,023	-6.9	-0.5	-4.7
	November	48,753	28,366	77,119	-1.2	2.5	0.1
Trend
2002	September	45,397	24,569	69,966	0.5	0.4	0.5
	October	45,653	24,629	70,282	0.6	0.2	0.5
	November	45,960	24,710	70,670	0.7	0.3	0.6
	December	46,345	24,837	71,182	0.8	0.5	0.7
2003	January	46,851	25,046	71,897	1.1	0.8	1.0
	February	47,472	25,382	72,854	1.3	1.3	1.3
	March	48,145	25,825	73,970	1.4	1.7	1.5
	April	48,856	26,291	75,147	1.5	1.8	1.6
	May	49,646	26,740	76,386	1.6	1.7	1.6
	June	50,378	27,148	77,526	1.5	1.5	1.5
	July	50,933	27,510	78,443	1.1	1.3	1.2
	August	51,243	27,786	79,029	0.6	1.0	0.7
	September	51,336	28,012	79,348	0.2	0.8	0.4
	October	51,246	28,209	79,455	-0.2	0.7	0.1
	November	50,987	28,345	79,332	-0.5	0.5	-0.2

		NSW (No.)	Vic. (No.)	Qld (No.)	SA (No.)	WA (No.)	Tas. (No.)	NT (No.)	ACT (No.)	Aust. (No.)
Original
2002	September	22,236	18,765	12,497	4,187	5,493	1,239	507	1,110	66,034
	October	24,618	20,185	13,456	4,499	6,627	1,203	580	1,164	72,332
	November	24,349	19,829	13,224	4,641	6,320	1,398	628	1,186	71,575
	December	21,741	19,706	12,672	4,531	5,989	1,584	585	1,165	67,973
2003	January	20,648	16,490	11,632	3,988	5,762	1,025	534	1,091	61,170
	February	21,965	18,152	12,956	4,754	6,164	1,069	582	1,093	66,735
	March	25,541	20,408	14,843	5,147	6,917	1,218	769	1,270	76,113
	April	23,588	18,368	13,386	4,507	5,948	1,177	728	1,163	68,865
	May	26,259	21,053	14,967	5,273	7,127	1,454	789	1,340	78,262
	June	31,168	24,132	18,084	6,089	8,662	1,549	866	1,508	92,058
	July	26,983	21,248	15,716	5,298	6,973	1,407	635	1,261	79,521
	August	25,391	19,799	15,248	5,263	7,048	1,589	555	1,280	76,173
	September	25,738	21,200	15,293	5,222	6,894	1,639	593	1,212	77,791
	October	25,533	21,337	15,521	5,430	7,487	2,008	607	1,302	79,225
	November	25,099	20,254	15,058	5,214	6,925	1,717	630	1,215	76,112
Seasonally Adjusted
2002	September	23,873	19,451	13,712	4,497	6,051	1,299	590	1,234	70,707
	October	23,765	18,951	13,579	4,459	6,406	1,223	606	1,132	70,121
	November	23,821	19,381	13,175	4,535	6,321	1,282	623	1,171	70,309
	December	20,805	18,235	11,898	4,247	5,616	1,089	626	1,125	63,641
2003	January	24,955	19,903	13,902	4,909	6,721	1,299	661	1,259	73,609
	February	23,993	19,519	13,687	5,010	6,446	1,275	669	1,169	71,768
	March	24,526	20,097	14,467	4,992	6,572	1,315	695	1,229	73,893
	April	25,537	20,151	14,470	5,048	6,391	1,381	693	1,257	74,928
	May	25,707	20,888	14,804	5,099	7,045	1,420	678	1,288	76,929
	June	26,049	21,140	14,738	5,111	7,305	1,484	665	1,308	77,800
	July	25,736	20,834	15,482	5,191	7,157	1,495	644	1,243	77,782
	August	26,502	20,534	15,861	5,367	7,206	1,574	605	1,270	78,919
	September	27,349	21,236	15,840	5,445	7,348	1,635	680	1,301	80,834
	October	24,676	20,104	15,775	5,331	7,263	1,977	631	1,266	77,023
	November	24,861	20,473	15,775	5,314	7,144	1,671	642	1,239	77,119
Trend
2002	September	23,843	19,037	13,437	4,442	6,163	1,261	606	1,177	69,966
	October	23,898	19,173	13,454	4,472	6,243	1,257	609	1,176	70,282
	November	23,987	19,295	13,465	4,541	6,326	1,257	620	1,179	70,670
	December	24,116	19,419	13,528	4,646	6,390	1,262	637	1,184	71,182
2003	January	24,309	19,577	13,670	4,769	6,444	1,274	656	1,198	71,897
	February	24,569	19,809	13,898	4,888	6,508	1,296	672	1,214	72,854
	March	24,864	20,092	14,178	4,985	6,607	1,329	681	1,234	73,970
	April	25,188	20,373	14,484	5,060	6,742	1,364	682	1,254	75,147
	May	25,581	20,624	14,795	5,120	6,908	1,409	677	1,272	76,386
	June	25,972	20,811	15,085	5,174	7,061	1,468	667	1,288	77,526
	July	26,271	20,913	15,350	5,233	7,182	1,537	659	1,298	78,443
	August	26,412	20,942	15,570	5,294	7,248	1,610	652	1,301	79,029
	September	26,430	20,933	15,745	5,340	7,273	1,681	647	1,299	79,348
	October	26,347	20,906	15,874	5,371	7,278	1,742	644	1,293	79,455
	November	26,202	20,837	15,947	5,388	7,242	1,790	642	1,284	79,332