|
|
JUNE KEY FIGURES
 | | Jun 04 | May 04 to Jun 04 | Jun 03 to Jun 04 |
| | no. | % change | % change |
Trend |
|
| Dwelling units approved | | | |
| Private sector houses | 9,364 | -0.4 | -6.4 |
| Total dwelling units | 14,650 | 0.2 | -0.4 |
Seasonally Adjusted |
|
| Dwelling units approved | | | |
| Private sector houses | 9,425 | 2.0 | -10.9 |
| Total dwelling units | 14,713 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
|
Dwelling units approved, Total number
| Private sector houses approved, Total number
|
JUNE KEY POINTS
TREND ESTIMATES
- The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved rose 0.2% in June 2004, the fourth consecutive monthly rise.
- The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.4% in June 2004. The trend has now fallen for nine consecutive months.
- The trend estimate for other dwellings approved has risen for the last six months, rising 0.9% in June 2004.
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved rose 1.5%, to 14,713, in June 2004.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved rose 2.0%, to 9,425, in June 2004.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate for other dwellings approved fell 0.5%, to 5,042, in June 2004.
- The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved fell 6.5%, to $4,251.8m, in June 2004.
NOTES
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates have been revised in this issue as a result of the annual reanalysis of seasonal factors. As advised in the last issue, this includes some changes to the method of aggregation used for seasonal adjustment. The value of Non-Residential building time series has been assessed to be non-seasonal. Tables 13,14 and 24, and corresponding time series spreadsheets, have been revised and no longer include the seasonally adjusted value of Non-Residential building. Additional information on the seasonal adjustment methods applied to Building Approvals time series is available on request by contacting the ABS Time Series Analysis section on telephone (02) 6252 6345 or email timeseries@abs.gov.au.
REVISIONS THIS MONTH
Revisions have been made to total dwelling units in this issue:
| 2002-03 | 2003-04 | TOTAL |
|
| New South Wales | - | 156 | 156 |
| Victoria | 3 | -55 | -52 |
| Queensland | 2 | 89 | 91 |
| South Australia | - | -10 | -10 |
| Western Australia | - | 17 | 17 |
| Tasmania | - | - | - |
| Northern Territory | - | - | - |
| Australian Capital Territory | - | - | - |
| TOTAL | 5 | 197 | 202 |
|
DATA NOTES
Estimates have been included in this issue for five councils unable to report all building work approved in their municipalities this month (Lake Macquarie and Parramatta in New South Wales, Noosa in Queensland, Adelaide Hills in South Australia, and Melville in Western Australia).
Two new articles ‘Focus on the South Australian Construction Industry’ and ‘Focus on the Tasmanian Construction Industry’ are available from the ABS website.
INQUIRIES
For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Andrea Woods on Adelaide (08) 8237 7350.
SUMMARY COMMENTARY
VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED
NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
The trend estimate of the value of new residential building has risen slowly over the last seven months, rising 0.4% in June 2004.
ALTERATIONS AND ADDITIONS TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
The trend estimate of the value of alterations and additions to residential building is now showing a rise over the last three months, following six months of decline. The trend rose 0.7% in June 2004.
NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING
The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building has fallen for the last ten months. The trend fell 3.5% in June 2004.
SUMMARY OF 2003-2004 BUILDING APPROVALS
DWELLING UNITS APPROVED
The total number of dwelling units approved in 2003-04 was 179,690, a rise of 1.1% from the previous year. Houses rose 3.3%, rising in all states and territories except New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. Other dwellings fell 3.2%, with falls in New South Wales and Victoria offsetting rises in other states and territories.
| HOUSES
| OTHER DWELLINGS
| TOTAL DWELLING UNITS
|
| | | | | | |
| no. | % change | no. | % change | no. | % change |
|
| NSW | 23,434 | -5.4 | 23,379 | -5.2 | 46,813 | -5.3 |
| Vic. | 34,587 | 3.2 | 11,853 | -19.3 | 46,440 | -3.7 |
| Qld | 29,350 | 7.3 | 14,442 | 4.2 | 43,792 | 6.2 |
| SA | 9,059 | 5.3 | 2,455 | 10.5 | 11,514 | 6.4 |
| WA | 19,508 | 8.1 | 4,131 | 10.4 | 23,639 | 8.5 |
| Tas. | 2,697 | 36.7 | 446 | 159.3 | 3,143 | 46.5 |
| NT | 588 | 13.5 | 625 | 44.7 | 1,213 | 27.7 |
| ACT | 1,373 | -27.3 | 1,763 | 37.6 | 3,136 | -1.1 |
| Aust. | 120,596 | 3.3 | 59,094 | -3.2 | 179,690 | 1.1 |
|
VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED
The value of total building approved in 2003-04 was $52,364.0 million, an increase of 4.5% from the previous year. Residential building rose 9.5% with rises in all states and territories. Non-residential building fell 5.0%, with rises only in Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
| Total residential building
| Total non-residential building
| Total building
|
| | | | | | |
| $m | % change | $m | % change | $m | % change |
|
| NSW | 10,208.5 | 4.2 | 5,023.0 | -13.6 | 15,231.5 | -2.5 |
| Vic. | 10,128.0 | 2.4 | 4,763.9 | -5.4 | 14,891.9 | -0.2 |
| Qld | 8,684.4 | 19.6 | 3,165.5 | 6.4 | 11,849.9 | 15.8 |
| SA | 1,831.0 | 10.6 | 1,154.9 | 14.3 | 2,985.8 | 12.0 |
| WA | 3,820.0 | 15.1 | 1,466.4 | -5.5 | 5,286.4 | 8.5 |
| Tas. | 554.2 | 70.7 | 187.0 | -7.2 | 741.3 | 40.9 |
| NT | 266.3 | 37.6 | 167.9 | 11.0 | 434.3 | 25.9 |
| ACT | 622.0 | 13.8 | 320.9 | -12.0 | 942.9 | 3.5 |
| Aust. | 36,114.4 | 9.5 | 16,249.5 | -5.0 | 52,364.0 | 4.5 |
|
DWELLING UNITS APPROVED - STATES AND TERRITORIES
SUMMARY COMMENTS
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved rose 0.2% in June 2004. The trend fell in New South Wales (-1.1%), Victoria (-0.1%), and Queensland (-0.1%), rising in other states and territories.
The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.4% in June 2004. The trend fell in Queensland (-3.3%) and Western Australia (-0.6%), but rose in all other states.
| | NSW | Vic. | Qld | SA | WA | Tas. | NT | ACT | Aust. | |
Original | |
| |
| Dwelling units approved | | | | | | | | | | |
| Private sector houses (no.) | 2,097 | 2,924 | 2,202 | 830 | 1,567 | 197 | 32 | 73 | 9,922 | |
| Total dwelling units (no.) | 3,697 | 3,637 | 3,813 | 1,081 | 2,156 | 234 | 139 | 193 | 14,950 | |
| Percentage change from previous month | | | | | | | | | | |
| Private sector houses (%) | 12.6 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 28.3 | -6.9 | -12.4 | 14.3 | -33.6 | 4.8 | |
| Total dwelling units (%) | -4.6 | -8.2 | 25.6 | 23.5 | -0.5 | -23.8 | 4.5 | -73.7 | -0.9 | |
Seasonally Adjusted | |
| |
| Dwelling units approved | | | | | | | | | | |
| Private sector houses (no.) | 1,963 | 2,775 | 2,075 | 762 | 1,512 | na | na | na | 9,425 | |
| Total dwelling units (no.) | 3,937 | 3,488 | 3,624 | 1,013 | 2,049 | 244 | na | na | 14,713 | |
| Percentage change from previous month | | | | | | | | | | |
| Private sector houses (%) | 10.3 | 1.2 | -0.9 | 18.4 | -6.7 | na | na | na | 2.0 | |
| Total dwelling units (%) | 10.2 | -11.7 | 26.0 | 16.3 | -0.4 | -22.8 | na | na | 1.5 | |
Trend | |
| |
| Dwelling units approved | | | | | | | | | | |
| Private sector houses (no.) | 1,881 | 2,752 | 2,093 | 701 | 1,569 | na | na | na | 9,364 | |
| Total dwelling units (no.) | 3,859 | 3,682 | 3,335 | 906 | 2,041 | 292 | 127 | 288 | 14,650 | |
| Percentage change from previous month | | | | | | | | | | |
| Private sector houses (%) | 0.6 | 0.9 | -3.3 | 1.1 | -0.6 | na | na | na | -0.4 | |
| Total dwelling units (%) | -1.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 0.2 | |
| |
| na not available |
DWELLING UNITS APPROVED
STATE TRENDS
NEW SOUTH WALES
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in New South Wales is now showing falls over the last three months, following four months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has risen slowly for the last three months.
VICTORIA
The trend estimate for total dwelling units in Victoria fell in June 2004, following three relatively flat months. The trend for private sector houses approved is now showing slight growth for the last two months.
QUEENSLAND
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland has fallen for the last nine months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last eight months.
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in South Australia is now showing growth over the last two months. The trend for private sector houses is now showing growth over the last three months.
WESTERN AUSTRALIA
The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Western Australia is now showing growth over the last nine months. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last three months.
WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
TREND REVISIONS
Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below. Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.
The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the July seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the June estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 14% for other dwelling units approved; and that the July seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the June estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 14% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.
PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED
| |
| | | | WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
| |
| | TREND AS PUBLISHED
| (1) rises by 4% on Jun 2004
| (2) falls by 4% on Jun 2004
| |
| | no. | % change | no. | % change | no. | % change | |
| |
| 2004 | | | | | | | |
| February | 9,651 | -1.5 | 9,633 | -1.6 | 9,656 | -1.5 | |
| March | 9,543 | -1.1 | 9,534 | -1.0 | 9,545 | -1.1 | |
| April | 9,465 | -0.8 | 9,490 | -0.5 | 9,459 | -0.9 | |
| May | 9,403 | -0.7 | 9,479 | -0.1 | 9,379 | -0.8 | |
| June | 9,364 | -0.4 | 9,490 | 0.1 | 9,301 | -0.8 | |
| July | - | - | 9,530 | 0.4 | 9,244 | -0.6 | |
| |
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
|
OTHER DWELLINGS
| |
| | | | WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE:
| |
| | TREND AS PUBLISHED
| (1) rises by 14% on Jun 2004
| (2) falls by 14% on Jun 2004
| |
| | no. | % change | no. | % change | no. | % change | |
| |
| 2004 | | | | | | | |
| February | 4,728 | 1.7 | 4,705 | 1.5 | 4,750 | 2.0 | |
| March | 4,845 | 2.5 | 4,832 | 2.7 | 4,855 | 2.2 | |
| April | 4,959 | 2.4 | 4,989 | 3.2 | 4,930 | 1.5 | |
| May | 5,061 | 2.1 | 5,130 | 2.8 | 4,936 | 0.1 | |
| June | 5,109 | 0.9 | 5,259 | 2.5 | 4,894 | -0.9 | |
| July | - | - | 5,376 | 2.2 | 4,824 | -1.4 | |
| |
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
|
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