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January Key Figures

		Jan 04	Dec 03 to Jan 04	Jan 03 to Jan 04
		no.	% change	% change
Trend
Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses	9,940	-1.0	10.6
	Total dwelling units	14,419	-2.1	2.0
Seasonally Adjusted
Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses	9,638	-4.4	5.9
	Total dwelling units	14,048	-3.3	-2.8

Dwelling units approved, Total number

Private sector houses approved, Total number

January Key Points


TREND ESTIMATES

• The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 2.1% in January 2004, following falls in the previous three months.
• The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 1.0% in January 2004. The trend has now fallen for five consecutive months.
• The trend estimate for other dwellings approved fell 4.9% in January 2004, the fourth consecutive monthly fall.

• The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 3.3%, to 14,048, in January 2004.
• The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved fell 4.4%, to 9,638, in January 2004.
• The seasonally adjusted estimate for other dwellings approved rose 2.4%, to 4,282, in January 2004. This was driven by a large rise in Victoria.
• The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 2.5%, to $4,421.0 million. Residential building fell 1.6%, to $2,854.4 million, with a 0.2% rise in new residential being offset by an 11.3% fall in alterations and additions. The value of non-residential building rose 11.0%, to $1,566.6 million.

	2002-03	2003-04	TOTAL
New South Wales	33	54	87
Victoria	-	112	112
Queensland	43	74	117
South Australia	-25	16	-9
Western Australia	5	13	18
Tasmania	-	10	10
Northern Territory	-	45	45
Australian Capital Territory	-	-	-
TOTAL	56	324	380

Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Andrea Woods on Adelaide (08) 8237 7350.


Summary Commentary


VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED

NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building has fallen for the last four months, following seven months of growth. The trend fell 0.5% in January 2004.

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 1.0% in January 2004. The trend fell in all states except Queensland (+0.5%).

		NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas.	NT	ACT	Aust.
Original
Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses (no.)	1,395	2,208	2,100	474	1,289	176	21	68	7,731
	Total dwelling units (no.)	2,710	3,644	2,941	692	1,551	198	72	114	11,922
Percentage change from previous month
	Private sector houses (%)	-29.7	-13.5	-12.2	-38.5	-22.0	-9.7	-43.2	-29.2	-20.1
	Total dwelling units (%)	-30.7	10.5	-9.4	-41.9	-19.5	-13.5	-20.0	-20.8	-15.1
Seasonally Adjusted
Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses (no.)	1,651	2,920	2,617	603	1,522	na	na	na	9,638
	Total dwelling units (no.)	3,315	4,087	3,490	879	1,784	230	na	na	14,048
Percentage change from previous month
	Private sector houses (%)	-17.7	10.6	-1.6	-24.1	-8.3	na	na	na	-4.4
	Total dwelling units (%)	-12.8	14.5	-2.1	-19.5	-12.9	6.3	na	na	-3.3
Trend
Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses (no.)	1,842	2,825	2,618	692	1,626	na	na	na	9,940
	Total dwelling units (no.)	3,488	3,918	3,521	926	1,988	230	103	139	14,419
Percentage change from previous month
	Private sector houses (%)	-2.6	-1.3	0.5	-2.6	-0.5	na	na	na	-1.0
	Total dwelling units (%)	-3.5	-	-2.0	-1.4	-1.6	-2.0	2.1	-3.5	-2.1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
na not available

The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the February seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the January estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved; and that the February seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the January estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.

PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: TREND AS PUBLISHED (1) rises by 4% on Jan 2004 (2) falls by 4% on Jan 2004 no. % change no. % change no. % change 2003 September 10,370 -0.1 10,384 -0.1 10,408 - October 10,280 -0.9 10,285 -1.0 10,296 -1.1 November 10,168 -1.1 10,164 -1.2 10,133 -1.6 December 10,039 -1.3 10,054 -1.1 9,951 -1.8 2004 January 9,940 -1.0 9,957 -1.0 9,763 -1.9 February - - 9,870 -0.9 9,578 -1.9 - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: TREND AS PUBLISHED (1) rises by 13% on Jan 2004 (2) falls by 13% on Jan 2004 no. % change no. % change no. % change 2003 September 4,933 1.1 4,927 1.1 4,965 1.5 October 4,872 -1.2 4,881 -0.9 4,900 -1.3 November 4,713 -3.3 4,744 -2.8 4,694 -4.2 December 4,524 -4.0 4,599 -3.1 4,434 -5.5 2004 January 4,301 -4.9 4,481 -2.6 4,170 -6.0 February - - 4,422 -1.3 3,953 -5.2 - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)