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December Key Figures

		Dec 03	Nov 03 to Dec 03	Dec 02 to Dec 03
		no.	% change	% change
Trend
Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses	10,221	-0.8	12.5
	Total dwelling units	15,022	-1.3	4.1
Seasonally Adjusted
Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses	10,159	-0.5	11.4
	Total dwelling units	14,578	-1.5	4.3

Dwelling units approved, Total number

Private sector houses approved, Total number

December Key Points

TREND ESTIMATES

• The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 1.3% in December 2003, and is now showing a fall over the last three months. The trend is now falling in all states and territories except South Australia and Western Australia. While those states are still showing growth, the rate of growth has slowed significantly.
• The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.8% in December 2003, following falls in October and November.
• The trend estimate for other dwellings approved fell 2.9% in December 2003, the third consecutive monthly fall.

• The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 1.5%, to 14,578, in December 2003.
• The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.5%, to 10,159, in December 2003.
• The seasonally adjusted estimate for other dwellings approved fell 6.9%, to 4,158, in December 2003. This follows a 17.3% fall in November.
• The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 18.7%, to $4,309.7 million, in December 2003, following a 21.6% fall in November. Residential building rose 1.5%, to $2,884.5 million, while non-residential building rose to $1,425.2 million, following the low value in November.

REVISIONS THIS MONTH

Revisions have been made to total dwelling units in this issue:

	2002-03	2003-04	TOTAL
New South Wales	40	21	61
Victoria	27	64	91
Queensland	-	16	16
South Australia	1	-	1
Western Australia	-	7	7
Tasmania	-	-	-
Northern Territory	-	-	-
Australian Capital Territory	-	-	-
TOTAL	68	108	176

A special article on ‘Average Floor Area of New Dwellings’ in the years 1984-85 to 2002-03 is included in this issue.

Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Andrea Woods on Adelaide (08) 8237 7350.

VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED

NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building has fallen for the last two months, following eight months of growth. The trend fell 0.7% in December 2003.

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.8% in December 2003. The trend fell in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, while rising in Queensland and Western Australia.

		NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas.	NT	ACT	Aust.
Original
Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses (no.)	2,013	2,554	2,383	770	1,640	195	37	96	9,688
	Total dwelling units (no.)	3,899	3,297	3,236	1,193	1,914	233	45	144	13,961
Percentage change from previous month
	Private sector houses (%)	0.1	-11.8	-1.7	11.3	3.3	-20.1	76.2	-20.0	-3.1
	Total dwelling units (%)	3.7	-7.1	-12.5	43.4	-4.5	-28.3	-10.0	15.2	-2.7
Seasonally Adjusted
Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses (no.)	2,025	2,651	2,663	782	1,701	na	na	na	10,159
	Total dwelling units (no.)	3,891	3,505	3,594	1,125	2,045	224	na	na	14,578
Percentage change from previous month
	Private sector houses (%)	4.6	-13.3	2.2	12.0	9.7	na	na	na	-0.5
	Total dwelling units (%)	7.8	-11.0	-6.3	25.5	0.4	-21.9	na	na	-1.5
Trend
Dwelling units approved
	Private sector houses (no.)	1,993	2,843	2,608	748	1,692	na	na	na	10,221
	Total dwelling units (no.)	3,808	3,797	3,648	980	2,114	242	79	140	15,022
Percentage change from previous month
	Private sector houses (%)	-0.7	-2.4	0.6	-0.6	1.3	na	na	na	-0.8
	Total dwelling units (%)	-1.7	-1.7	-1.4	0.1	1.2	-0.3	-3.5	-4.1	-1.3
na not available

The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the January seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the December estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved; and that the January seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the December estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.

PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES APPROVED

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: TREND AS PUBLISHED (1) rises by 4% on Dec 2003 (2) falls by 4% on Dec 2003 no. % change no. % change no. % change 2003 August 10,356 1.1 10,362 1.1 10,387 1.2 September 10,369 0.1 10,371 0.1 10,384 - October 10,341 -0.3 10,342 -0.3 10,309 -0.7 November 10,301 -0.4 10,325 -0.2 10,216 -0.9 December 10,221 -0.8 10,315 -0.1 10,110 -1.0 2004 January - - 10,343 0.3 10,035 -0.7 - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

WHAT IF NEXT MONTH‘S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATE: TREND AS PUBLISHED (1) rises by 13% on Dec 2003 (2) falls by 13% on Dec 2003 no. % change no. % change no. % change 2003 August 4,821 2.4 4,819 2.5 4,856 2.9 September 4,887 1.4 4,890 1.5 4,908 1.1 October 4,861 -0.5 4,874 -0.3 4,826 -1.7 November 4,766 -2.0 4,781 -1.9 4,621 -4.2 December 4,628 -2.9 4,667 -2.4 4,365 -5.5 2004 January - - 4,520 -3.1 4,065 -6.9 - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)