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January Key Figures
January Key Points TREND ESTIMATES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
ORIGINAL ESTIMATES
Notes CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE There are no changes in this issue.
Estimates for sampled businesses in the first month of each quarter can be influenced by the quarterly rotation of sampled businesses. This rotation is done to spread the reporting load across retailers and to ensure the sample remains representative of the population. At times, the businesses rotated into the sample can perform differently from the businesses they replace or those already in the sample. The potential impact of the quarterly rotation is reflected in the sampling errors for the relevant months.
FOOD RETAILING There has been moderate trend growth for the last 12 months. The Australian Capital Territory has had moderate to strong growth in the last four months after 12 months of having weak growth or being in decline. Queensland and Tasmania both had moderate trend growth in January 2004 after a long period of strong growth. Victoria and Western Australia have had weak or no growth over the last six months. DEPARTMENT STORES The trend growth was moderate in January 2004 after being flat or in decline in the previous three months. Victoria, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline in this period, but all had growth in January 2004. New South Wales had strong growth in January 2004 after nine months of mostly weak growth. CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING There has been moderate to strong trend growth over the last seven months. New South Wales and South Australia have had strong growth in the last five months while Victoria has had moderate growth. Tasmania has had moderate to strong growth in the last four months after mainly being flat or in decline for the previous 11 months. HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING The trend growth rate has been slowing since June 2003 with weak trend growth in January 2004. South Australia has had strong growth over the last five months. Western Australia had moderate trend growth in January 2004 after 15 months of strong growth. New South Wales, Queensland and Tasmania were in decline in January 2004. RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING The trend growth rate has been slowing from strong trend growth in August 2003 to weak trend growth in January 2004. Queensland has the same pattern. Victoria has had strong growth in the last five months after having been in decline for 12 months. South Australia has had strong growth in the last five months after three months of being in decline. Western Australia has had strong trend growth over the last eight months. All other states were flat or in decline in January 2004. OTHER RETAILING Trend growth was strong for nine months to October 2003, but has been weak to moderate over the last three months. South Australia and Western Australia have had strong growth over the last four months and the Australian Capital Territory over the last five months. New South Wales has been in decline in the last two months and Victoria and Queensland were flat in January 2004. TOTAL RETAIL (excluding Hospitality and Services) The rate of trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been below that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services) for the last six months. HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES There has been strong trend growth over the last eight months. Queensland has had strong trend growth in each of the last 12 months and Victoria has had strong growth over the last eight months. The Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have been flat or in decline in each of the last six months and Tasmania over the last three months. Western Australia was in decline in January 2004. STATE TRENDS MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES NEW SOUTH WALES Trend growth was weak to moderate over the last three months after having been strong for the previous four months. Clothing and soft good retailing has shown strong trend growth over the last five months while Household good retailing, Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have been in decline in the last two months. VICTORIA Trend growth has been moderate in the last three months. Hospitality and services has shown strong trend growth over the last eight months, while Other retailing was flat in January 2004 after a long period of mostly strong growth. Recreational good retailing has had strong trend growth in the last five months, but had been in decline since September 2002. Food retailing has had weak trend growth over the last eight months. QUEENSLAND After strong trend growth for nine months,there was moderate trend growth in January 2004. Food retailing showed this same pattern of trend growth, while Recreational good retailing had weak trend growth in January 2004 after nine months of strong trend growth. Hospitality and services has had twelve months of strong trend growth. SOUTH AUSTRALIA The trend has shown strong growth in the last four months. Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Recreational good retailing have shown strong growth over the last five months and Other retailing over the last four months. Food retailing and Department stores showed moderate growth in January 2004. WESTERN AUSTRALIA For the last six months there has been moderate trend growth. The trend growth for Household good retailing had been strong since October 2002, although the rate of growth has been slowing since July 2003 and became moderate in January 2004. Recreational good retailing has had strong growth for the last eight months. Hospitality and services was in decline in January 2004. TASMANIA The trend growth has been weak to moderate for the last three months after seven months of strong growth. After eight months of strong trend growth, Food retailing has had moderate growth in January 2004. Clothing and soft good retailing has had moderate to strong growth in the last four months.
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