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INTRODUCTION

1 This publication presents quarterly estimates of production of selected major manufacturing commodities for Australia.


SCOPE AND COVERAGE

2 Data presented in this publication are collected from a number of different sources. The prime source is the ABS surveys of manufacturing production. Data are also obtained from surveys undertaken by the Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources (DITR), the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), Dairy Australia and from ABS agriculture collections. Scope and coverage varies slightly depending on the source of the information.

3 Production statistics sourced from ABS manufacturing production surveys are not collected from single establishment manufacturing businesses with fewer than four persons employed, nor from establishments predominantly engaged in non-manufacturing activities but which may carry out some manufacturing in a minor way. However, in general, the contribution of these small producers to statistical aggregates is only marginal and data contained in this publication provide reliable information for the evaluation of movements in commodity production.

4 The statistics on meat production include data collected from abattoirs and other major slaughtering establishments, plus estimates of animals slaughtered for human consumption on farms and by country butchers and other small slaughtering establishments. Further information about this series, including more detail, is available in the monthly publication Livestock and Meat, Australia – Electronic Publication (cat. no. 7218.0.55.001) and in the quarterly publication Livestock Products, Australia (cat. no. 7215.0).

5 The statistics on chicken meat have been collected from commercial poultry slaughtering establishments. Many very small producers and Tasmanian producers are excluded from the collection; however, the statistics represent a high level of coverage. Further information about this series, including more detail, is available in the quarterly publication Livestock Products, Australia (cat. no. 7215.0).

6 Data on the production of base metals and sawn timber are obtained from the ABARE publications Mineral Statistics and Australian Forest and Wood Products Statistics.

7 Data on the production of fuels are obtained from the DITR Petroleum and International Energy Division publication Australian Petroleum Statistics.

8 Data on the production of cheese and butter are obtained from the Dairy Australia as unpublished data.


COMPARABILITY WITH OTHER ESTIMATES

9 The quarterly production statistics presented in this publication account, in total, for less than one-fifth of the output of the manufacturing sector. For information on general trends in the manufacturing sector, refer to the publications shown in paragraphs 10, 11 and 19.

10 Details of the value of manufacturers' sales and inventories are published quarterly in Business Indicators, Australia (cat. no. 5676.0) (which has replaced Inventories and Sales, Selected Industries, Australia (cat. no. 5629.0)). Information about the manufacturing sector's contribution to the Australian economy is published quarterly in Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product (cat. no. 5206.0).

11 Details from the annual manufacturing collection are published in Manufacturing Industry, Australia (cat. no. 8221.0) and corresponding State publications.


SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

12 In the seasonal adjustment process, account has been taken not only of normal seasonal factors but also, where appropriate, of 'working day' effects (arising from the varying numbers of Sundays, Mondays, Tuesdays, etc. in the quarter) which may, in successive years, affect figures for different quarters. Details of the methods used in seasonally adjusting these series are available on request.

13 Seasonal adjustment procedures do not aim to remove the irregular or non-seasonal influences which may be present in any particular quarter, such as the non-systematic effect of strikes, holiday shutdowns, providers' inconsistent reporting periods (where, for example, a 'quarter' may variously represent 13 or 14 weeks production), or other factors which vary with the prevailing demand for products. Irregular influences that are highly volatile can make it difficult to interpret the movement of the series even after seasonal adjustment. Seasonally adjusted estimates of production for the series 8 Wood pulp, 14 Automotive diesel oil, 20 Silver, 21 Copper, 22 Lead and 23 Tin are more volatile than other series. Seasonally adjusted estimates for 7 Newsprint, 10 Hardwood woodchips, 18 Alumina and 19 Zinc are not sufficiently reliable to be published, while those for 12 Fuel oil and 24 Gold do not exhibit sufficient seasonal behaviour to be published.

14 From September quarter 2003, the seasonally adjusted estimates are produced by the concurrent seasonal adjustment method which takes account of the latest available original estimates. The concurrent method improves the estimation of seasonal factors, and therefore, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates for the current and previous quarters. As a result of this improvement, revisions to the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates will be observed for recent periods. The estimates that will improve the most will be for the current quarter, previous quarter and the same quarter one year ago. The concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology replaces the forward factor methodology previously used to adjust Manufacturing Production series, where seasonal factors were only revised following an annual reanalysis.

15 The smoothing of seasonally adjusted series to create trend estimates is a means of reducing the impact of the irregular component of the series. The trend estimates have been derived by applying a 7-term Henderson moving average to the quarterly seasonally adjusted series. The 7-term Henderson averages (like all Henderson averages) are symmetric but, as the end of a time series is approached, asymmetric forms of the average are applied. Unlike the weights of the standard 7-term Henderson moving average, the surrogate weights employed with the quarterly data have been tailored to suit the particular characteristics of individual series.

16 While the asymmetric weights enable trend estimates for recent quarters to be produced, it does result in revisions to the trend estimates for the most recent quarters as additional observations become available. Generally, subsequent revisions become smaller and after two quarters have little impact on the series. There will also be revisions as a result of changes to the original estimates and annual reviews of seasonal and 'working day' factors.

17 More detailed up-to-date information on smoothing of seasonally adjusted time series data is available in unpublished form. Interested users should contact the ABS's Time Series Analysis section, on Canberra 02 6252 6345 or by email through the internet to timeseries@abs.gov.au.


ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

18 ABS publications draw extensively on information provided freely by individuals, businesses, governments and other organisations. Their continued cooperation is very much appreciated: without it, the wide range of statistics published by the ABS would not be available. Information received by the ABS is treated in strict confidence as required by the Census and Statistics Act 1905.


RELATED PUBLICATIONS

19 Other ABS publications which may be of interest are:

• Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product (cat. no. 5206.0) Quarterly

• Business Indicators, Australia (cat. no. 5676.0) Quarterly

• Electricity, Gas, Water and Sewerage Industries, Australia, 1999–2000 (cat. no. 8208.0)

• Experimental Estimates, Australian Industry, a State Perspective (cat. no. 8156.0)

• Livestock and Meat, Australia–Electronic Publication (cat. no. 7218.0.55.001) Monthly

• Livestock Products, Australia (cat. no. 7215.0) Quarterly

• Manufacturing, Australia, 2002 (cat. no. 8225.0)

• Manufacturing Industry, Australia, 2000–01 (cat. no. 8221.0)

• Manufacturing Industry, Australia, Preliminary, 2000–01 (cat. no. 8201.0)

• Mining Operations, Australia, 2000–01 (cat. no. 8415.0)

• Information Paper: Availability of Statistics Related to Manufacturing, 1997 (cat. no. 8205.0)