EXPLANATORY NOTES
INTRODUCTION
1 This publication contains information on livestock slaughterings, meat production, exports of live sheep and live cattle, exports of fresh, chilled, frozen and processed meat, and whole milk intake by factories, market milk sales by factories and receivals of taxable wool by wool brokers and dealers.
2 The figures shown in this publication have been revised where necessary and as a consequence may not agree with similar data shown in previous publications.
3 Where figures have been rounded, discrepancies may occur between sums of the component items and totals.
4 Unless indicated otherwise, Australian totals include data for all states and both territories. Where states and territories do not appear in tables, this is for reasons of confidentiality.
LIVESTOCK SLAUGHTERINGS AND MEAT PRODUCTION
5 The statistics on slaughterings for red meat production are based on a monthly collection from abattoirs and other major slaughtering establishments and include estimates of animals slaughtered on farms and by country butchers and other small slaughtering establishments.
6 Red meat is shown in carcass weight and excludes offal.
7 Care should be taken when using this information as the figures only relate to slaughterings for human consumption and do not include animals condemned, slaughtered for pet food or those killed for boiling down.
8 Poultry slaughterings and meat produced statistics have been compiled from quarterly returns supplied by commercial poultry slaughtering establishments and comprise boilers, fryers and roasters. Many small producers are excluded from the collection; however, the statistics represent a high level of coverage. Tasmanian, Northern Territory and Australian Capital Territory data are excluded from the Australian total.
9 Chicken meat is shown in dressed weight of whole birds, pieces and giblets. Some slaughterings and meat production statistics for ‘Ducks and Drakes’ and ‘Other Fowls and Turkeys’ are available by contacting the ABS on Hobart (03) 6222 5838 or by writing to GPO Box 66, Hobart Tasmania 7001 (Attention: Agriculture Section).
EXPORTS OF FRESH, CHILLED, FROZEN AND PROCESSED MEAT
10 Table 20 shows exports of fresh, chilled, frozen and processed meat. International trade statistics are compiled by the ABS from information submitted by exporters and importers or their agents to the Australian Customs Service. Factors can be applied to beef, veal, mutton and lamb bone-out figures to derive bone-in carcass weight which, when added to bone-in figures, shows total exports in carcass weight. The factor for beef and veal is 1.5 and for mutton and lamb, 2.0. This information is sourced from Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry - Australia.
11 Beef also includes buffalo meat. Bacon and ham shown is the cured carcass weight of smoked or cooked bacon and ham. It also includes the stated net weight of packs of canned bacon and ham. Canned meat is shown as the canned weight and excludes canned bacon and ham.
LIVE SHEEP AND CATTLE EXPORTS
12 Table 21 contains statistics of the number of live sheep and cattle exported, the gross weight, gross value and unit value. The unit value is obtained by dividing the gross value by the number of animals exported. Sheep and cattle exported for breeding are excluded.
MILK
13 Tables 2, 22, 23 and 25 contain statistics collected by Dairy Australia. Whole milk intake by factories includes the whole milk equivalent of farm cream intake. Market milk sales includes white, flavoured, high and low fat milk and UHT milk. Interstate transfers of UHT milk have been included in their state of destination.
WOOL RECEIVALS
14 The statistics in tables 2, 24 and 25 show the amount of taxable wool received by brokers and purchased by dealers from wool producers. It excludes wool received by brokers on which tax has already been paid by other dealers (private buyers) or brokers.
15 The information shown is on the basis of the state in which wool has actually been received and does not necessarily reflect the production of wool in that state.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
16 Seasonal adjustment is a means of removing the estimated effects of normal seasonal variation from the series so that the effects of other influences can be more clearly recognised.
17 In the seasonal adjustment of the livestock estimates, account has been taken of both normal seasonal factors and ‘trading day’ effects, where significant, (arising from the varying length of each quarter and the varying numbers of Sundays, Mondays, Tuesdays etc. in the quarter). Adjustments are also made for the effects of change in the date of Easter holidays, again, where significant. Seasonal adjustment does not remove from the series the effect of irregular influences (e.g. abnormal weather, industrial disputes).
18 The state component series have been seasonally adjusted independently. Therefore, the adjusted components may not add to the Australian group totals.
19 In this publication, the seasonally adjusted estimates are produced by the concurrent seasonal adjustment method which takes account of the latest available original estimates. This method improves the estimation of seasonal factors and therefore, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates for the current and previous quarters. As a result of this improvement, revisions to the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates will be observed for recent periods. In most instances the only noticeable revisions will be to the previous quarter and the same quarter one year ago. A more detailed review is conducted annually prior to the September quarter release, using data up to and including the June quarter. The concurrent seasonal adjustment methodology replaces the forward factor methodology used previously.
20 More recently, the ABS has implemented improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. ARIMA modelling is a technique that can be used to extend original estimates beyond the end of a time series. For more information on the details of ARIMA modelling, see the feature article 'Use of ARIMA modelling to reduce revisions' in the October 2004 issue of Australian Economic Indicators (cat. no. 1350.0).
TREND ESTIMATES
21 A trend estimate is obtained by reducing the irregular component from the seasonally adjusted series. In this publication trend estimates are generally derived by applying a 7-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted series. The 7-term Henderson (like all Henderson averages) is symmetric, but as the end of a time series is approached, asymmetric forms of the average are applied. Unlike the weights of the standard 7-term Henderson moving average, the weights employed here have been tailored to suit the particular characteristics of individual series. While the asymmetric weights enable the trend to be calculated for recent quarters, it does result in revisions to the estimates for the most recent three quarters as additional observations become available. Revisions of trend estimates will also occur with revisions to the original data and re-estimation of seasonal factors.
22 Sensitivity analysis indicates the potential magnitude and direction of revisions created to the last three estimates. It aims to show how a specified movement in the seasonally adjusted data in the next period will affect the trend path of the time series. By showing how sensitive the trend estimates are to the addition of new data, the analysis provides information which can be used in the assessment of the trend's stability.
23 The state component series have been adjusted independently. Therefore, the adjusted components may not add to the Australian group totals.
24 For further information, see Information Paper: A Guide to Interpreting Time Series - Monitoring ‘Trends’, an Overview (cat. no. 1348.0) or contact the Assistant Director, Time Series Analysis on Canberra (02) 6252 6345.
RELATED PUBLICATIONS
25 Current publications and other products released by the ABS are listed in the Catalogue of Publications and Products (cat. no. 1101.0). The Catalogue is available from any ABS office or the ABS web site <https://www.abs.gov.au>. The ABS also issues a daily Release Advice on the web site which details products to be released in the week ahead.
GENERAL ACKNOWLEDGMENT
26 ABS publications draw extensively on information provided freely by individuals, businesses, governments and other organisations. Their continued cooperation is very much appreciated. Without it, the wide range of statistics published by the ABS would not be available. Information received by the ABS is treated in strict confidence as required by the Census and Statistics Act 1905.
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