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JANUARY KEY FIGURES

		Dec 2007	Jan 2008	Dec 07 to Jan 08		Jan 07 to Jan 08
Trend
	Employed persons ('000)	10 597.4	10 616.8	19.4		2.6	%
	Unemployed persons ('000)	475.6	473.8	-1.8		-3.4	%
	Unemployment rate (%)	4.3	4.3	0.0	pts	-0.3	pts
	Participation rate (%)	65.2	65.2	0.0	pts	0.4	pts
Seasonally Adjusted
	Employed persons ('000)	10 604.2	10 631.0	26.8		2.7	%
	Unemployed persons ('000)	472.4	458.5	-13.9		-5.9	%
	Unemployment rate (%)	4.3	4.1	-0.1	pts	-0.4	pts
	Participation rate (%)	65.2	65.2	0.0	pts	0.3	pts

Employed Persons

Unemployment rate

JANUARY KEY POINTS


TREND ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)

• EMPLOYMENT increased to 10,616,800
• UNEMPLOYMENT decreased to 473,800
• UNEMPLOYMENT RATE remained at 4.3%
• PARTICIPATION RATE remained at 65.2%

• increased by 26,800 to 10,631,000. Full-time employment decreased by 7,800 to 7,587,600 and part-time employment increased by 34,600 to 3,043,400.

• decreased by 13,900 to 458,500. The number of persons looking for full-time work decreased by 27,500 to 296,900 and the number of persons looking for part-time work increased by 13,600 to 161,600.

• decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.1%. The male unemployment rate decreased by 0.4% to 3.7%, and the female unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%.

• remained steady at 65.2%.

In order to reduce the potential impact of the change in sample on labour force statistics, the new sample will be introduced progressively, taking advantage of the existing rotation scheme. Using this scheme, the private dwelling sample in larger urban centres and less remote areas, representing approximately four-fifths of the total sample, will be phased in over the period November 2007 to June 2008. Within these areas, one-eighth of the new sample will be introduced each month under existing sample rotation arrangements. The rest of the sample (in remote, less populated areas and for non-private dwellings) will be introduced in two stages, March and April 2008. Detailed information about the new sample is provided in Information Paper: Labour Force Survey Sample Design (cat. no. 6269.0), which was released on 28 November 2007.

An analysis of the incoming and outgoing components of the sample indicates that the phasing in of the new sample has had minimal impact on the estimates.

FORTHCOMING CHANGES

Recently, the ABS has developed improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of ARIMA modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process. The ABS will implement the improved method into the Labour Force Survey during the annual seasonal reanalysis. The February issue of this publication to be released on 13 March, will be the first using the improved method.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Mary Piechowski on Canberra (02) 6252 6525.