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NEW LABOUR FORCE SAMPLE DESIGN


NEW LABOUR FORCE SAMPLE

Every five years the ABS reviews the Labour Force Survey (LFS) sample design to ensure that the sample continues to accurately represent the Australian population.

The new LFS sample is being phased-in over the four months from May to August 2013. During this phase-in, there will be a short-term impact on the standard errors of the labour force estimates. Introducing two rotation groups from the new sample per month (compared to the usual introduction of one rotation group each month) reduces the proportion of common selections each month over the period between May and August 2013. As a result, the standard errors on month-to-month movement estimates are predicted to increase by approximately 10% during this period. There is expected to only be a marginal impact on the quality of level estimates. Any impacts are reflected in the estimates published in this issue of the Labour Force publication, and the confidence intervals for the key estimates are presented in the Notes on page 2 of this publication.


BACKGROUND

Every five years, following the availability of data from the Census of Population and Housing (Census), the ABS reviews the LFS sample design. While the design has remained broadly the same since the introduction of the LFS, the review ensures that the survey sample continues to accurately represent the Australian population, and remains efficient and cost-effective. This review, based on 2011 Census data, has been completed and the new sample commenced implementation from the May 2013 LFS. For the key LFS estimates, the 2011 sample design generally maintains standard errors at the levels targeted under the 2006 sample design.

The Information Paper: Labour Force Survey Sample Design, May 2013 (cat. no. 6269.0) provides detailed information on the LFS sample design. It also outlines changes made for the 2011 design which include:

• the use of a new Australian Statistical Geography Standard (ASGS) for sample selection and output;
• the roll-out of the new sample over a four month period; and,
• the decoupling (separation) of the samples for the Monthly Population Survey (including the LFS) and for Special Social Surveys.

EXAMPLES OF MOVEMENTS IN SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SERIES BETWEEN TWO CONSECUTIVE MONTHS(a)
		Movement standard errors under the 2006 sample design			Estimated movement standard errors during the phase-in of the 2011 design			Predicted movement standard errors under the 2011 sample design
	Monthly change	95% Confidence interval			95% Confidence interval			95% Confidence interval
Total Employment	50 100	-5 100	to	105 300	-10 620	to	110 820	-6 900	to	107 100
Total Unemployment	-2 700	-36 900	to	31 500	-40 320	to	34 920	-38 700	to	33 300
Unemployment rate	0.0 pts	-0.2 pts	to	0.2 pts	-0.2 pts	to	0.2 pts	-0.2 pts	to	0.2 pts
Participation rate	0.2 pts	-0.2 pts	to	0.6 pts	-0.2 pts	to	0.6 pts	-0.2 pts	to	0.6 pts
(a) The example uses the results presented in April 2013 issue of Labour Force, Australia (cat no. 6202.0).