5646.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure, State Estimates, Dec 2001
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 19/03/2002 Ceased
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INTRODUCTION
4 The survey excludes the following industries:
Government Administration and Defence Education Health and Community Services Other services (96) 5 The Survey of New Capital Expenditure, like most ABS economic collections, takes its frame from the ABS Business Register which is primarily based on registrations to the Australian Taxation Office’s Pay As You Go Withholding (PAYGW) scheme (and prior to 1 July 2000 its Group Employer scheme). The frame is updated quarterly to take account of new businesses, businesses which have ceased employing, changes in employment levels, changes in industry and other general business changes. 6 Businesses which have ceased employing are identified when the Australian Taxation Office cancels their PAYGW registration (or previously their GE registration). In addition, from September quarter 1999, businesses which did not remit under the GE scheme for the previous five quarters were removed from the frame. A similar process will be adopted to remove businesses who do not remit under the PAYGW scheme. 7 The statistics in this publication exclude non-employing businesses. Though there are a substantial number of these businesses, it is expected that they would not contribute significantly to the estimates, although the impact would vary from industry to industry. CHANGES TO ABS BUSINESS REGISTER 8 The introduction of The New Tax System has a number of significant implications for ABS business statistics, and these are discussed in the information paper ABS Statistics And The New Tax System (ABS Cat. no. 1358.0). The replacement of the GE registration process by PAYGW registration resulted in a number of changes to most business survey frames. However, an adjustment has been made to the New Capital Expenditure series so that these changes will not affect broader level estimates of level and movement. 9 From the September quarter 2002, the ABS will make further changes including adopting a new units model and expanding its Register to include all units on the Australian Business Register, including non-employers. Further information on the impact of these changes will be provided before they are implemented. SURVEY METHODOLOGY 10 The survey is conducted by mail on a quarterly basis. It is based on a random sample of approximately 6,800 units which is stratified by industry, state/territory and number of employees. The figures obtained from the selected businesses are supplemented by data from units which have large capital expenditure and/or large employment and which are outside the sample framework, or not adequately covered by it. 11 Respondents are asked to provide data on the same basis as their own management accounts. Where a particular business unit does not respond in a given survey period, an estimate is substituted. Revisions may be made to these estimates if data are provided subsequently from those businesses. Aggregates are calculated from all data using the ‘number raised’ estimation technique. Data are edited at both individual unit level and at aggregate level. TIMING AND CONSTRUCTION OF SURVEY CYCLE 12 State/Territory estimates of actual new capital expenditure by business units are compiled quarterly. Surveys are conducted in respect of each quarter and returns are completed in the 8 or 9 week period after the end of the quarter to which the survey data relate (e.g. March quarter survey returns are completed during April and May). 13 Businesses are requested to provide actual expenditure data by State/Territory each survey. Additionally in each December quarter survey they are requested to provide by State/Territory:
14 This survey cycle facilitates the formation of estimates of expenditure for financial years (12 months ending 30 June). For example, the first estimate for 2001-2002 by State/Territory was available from the December 2000 survey as a long term expectation (E2). It was subsequently revised in the December quarter 2001 survey as the sum of actual expenditure for September and December quarters (i.e. that part of the year completed) and short term expectation (for the remainder of the year). The final estimate from the June quarter 2002 survey, will be derived by summing the actual expenditure for each of the four quarters. SAMPLE REVISION 15 The survey frames and samples are revised each quarter to ensure that they remained representative of the survey population. The timing for creating each quarter's survey frame is consistent with that of other ABS business surveys. This provides for greater consistency when comparing data across surveys. 16 Additionally, with these revisions to the sample, some of the units from the sampled sector are rotated out of the survey and are replaced by others, to spread the reporting workload equitably. 17 Adjustments are included in the estimates to allow for lags in processing new businesses to the ABS Business Register, and the omission of some businesses from the register. The majority of businesses affected and to which adjustments apply are small in size. As an indication of the size of these adjustments, in December quarter 2001 they represented about 1.6% of the total estimate of new capital expenditure. STATISTICAL UNIT 18 This survey uses the Management Unit as the statistical unit. The management unit is the highest level accounting unit within a business, having regard to industry homogeneity, for which accounts are maintained. In nearly all cases it coincides with the legal entity owning the business (i.e. company, partnership, trust, sole operator, etc.). In the case of large diversified businesses, however, there may be more than one management unit, each coinciding with a ‘division’ or ‘line of business’. A division or line of business is defined when separate and comprehensive accounts are compiled for it. STATE DATA AVAILABILITY 19 Seasonally adjusted estimates for Tasmania, NT and ACT are not separately available because of the high sampling variability associated with them. They are included in totals for Australia and while a combined residual for them can be derived, the measure should not be considered reliable. 20 State estimates for expected expenditure are only collected in the December quarter survey. The expectations data relate to the 6 months ending the following June and to the following financial year. Australian estimates for expected expenditure are collected every quarter and released in Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia (Cat. no. 5625.0). CLASSIFICATION BY INDUSTRY 21 The Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) has been developed for use in both countries for the production and analysis of industry statistics. It replaces the Australian Standard Industrial Classification (ASIC) and the New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (NZSIC). 22 For more information, users are referred to Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) 1993 (Cat. no. 1292.0). 23 In order to classify new capital expenditure by broad industry, each statistical unit (as defined above) is classified to the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) industry in which it mainly operates. CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES 24 The chain volume measures appearing in this publication are annually reweighted chain Laspeyres indexes referenced to current price values in the chosen reference year (currently 1999-2000). The current price values may be thought as being the product of a price and quantity. The value in chain volume terms can be derived by linking together movements in volumes, calculated using the average prices of the previous financial year and applying compound movements to the current price estimates of the reference year. Each year's quarter-to-quarter growth rates in the chain volume series are based on the prices of the previous financial year, except for those quarters of the latest incomplete year which are based upon the second most recent financial year. Quarterly chain volume estimates are benchmarked to annual chain volume estimates, so that the quarterly estimates for a financial year sum to the corresponding annual estimate. 25 With each release of the June quarter issue of this publication, a new base year is introduced and the reference year is advanced one year to coincide with it. This means that with the release of the June quarter 2001 issue of this publication, the chain volume measures for 2000-2001 will have 1999-2000 (the previous financial year) as their base year rather than 1998-1999, and the reference year will be 2000-2001. A change in the reference year changes levels but not growth rates for all periods. A change in the base year can result in revisions, small in most cases, to growth rates for the last year. 26 Chain volume measures are not generally additive. In other words, component chain volume measures do not, in general, sum to a total in the way current price components do. In order to minimise the impact of this, the ABS uses the latest base year as the reference year. By adopting this approach, additivity does exist for the quarters following the reference year and non-additivity is relatively small for the quarters in the reference year and those immediately preceding it. However, the trending methodology means that the chain volume trend series may not be additive for the latest three quarters. For further information on chain volume measures refer to the Information Paper: Introduction of Chain Volume Measures in the Australian National Accounts (Cat. no. 5248.0). DERIVATION AND USEFULNESS OF REALISATION RATIOS 27 Once actual expenditure for a financial year is known, it is useful to investigate the relationship between the estimate and that actual. The resultant realisation ratios (subsequent actual expenditure divided by expected expenditure) then indicate how much expenditure was actually incurred against the amount expected to be incurred at the various times of reporting. Realisation ratios can also be formed separately for 6 month expectations as well as the 12 month E2 estimates or combinations of estimates containing at least some expectations components (e.g. 6 months actual and 6 months expected expenditure). 28 Realisation ratios provide an important tool in understanding and interpreting expectation statistics for future periods. The application of realisation ratios enables the adjustment of expectation data for known under (or over) realisation patterns in the past and hence provides a valid basis for comparison with actual expenditure estimates. For example, if one wished to predict actual expenditure for 2001-02 based on the December 2001 survey results and compare this with 2000-2001 expenditure, it is necessary to apply relevant realisation factors to the expectation to put both estimates on the same basis. Once this has been done the predictions can be validly compared with each other and with previously derived estimates of actual expenditure for earlier years. 29 In using realisation ratios to adjust expectations data, attention should be paid to the range of values that has occurred in the past. A wide range of values is indicative of volatility in the realisation patterns and hence greater caution should be exercised regarding the predictive value of the expectation, even after adjustment by application of the realisation ratios. This is particularly the case with the early 12 month expectations collected in the December quarter. 30 The December issue of this publication contains three sets of realisation ratios for each State. These are:
RELIABILITY OF ESTIMATES 31 Estimates provided in this publication are subject to non-sampling and sampling errors. 32 Since the estimates are based on data obtained from a sample rather than a complete enumeration, the data and the movements derived from them are subject to sampling variability; that is, they may differ from the figures that would have been obtained if all units had been included in the survey. One measure of the likely difference is given by the standard error, which indicates the extent to which an estimate might have varied by chance because only a sample of units was included. There are about two chances in three that a sample estimate will differ by less than one standard error from the figure that would have been obtained if all units had been included, and about 19 chances in 20 that the difference will be less than two standard errors. 33 Another measure of sampling variability is the relative standard error which is obtained by expressing the standard error as a percentage of the estimate to which it refers. The relative standard error is a useful measure in that it provides an immediate indication of the percentage errors likely to have occurred due to sampling. The sample estimates of quarter to quarter movement in the value of new capital expenditure are also subject to sampling variability. The relative standard error of the estimate of movement is expressed as a percentage of the quarterly estimate of the level of capital expenditure. Table 12 shows the relative standard errors by State/Territory. 34 Non-sampling errors may arise as a result of errors in the reporting, recording or processing of the data and can occur even if there is a complete enumeration of the population. These errors can be introduced through inadequacies in the questionnaire, non-response, inaccurate reporting by respondents, errors in the application of survey procedures, incorrect recording of answers, and errors in data entry and processing. 35 It is difficult to measure the size of non-sampling errors. However, every effort is made in the design of the survey and development of survey procedures to minimise their effects. In addition, respondents may have difficulties in allocating to the appropriate State(s), expenditure on some equipment items such as mobile assets (e.g. aircraft, bulk oil carriers, satellites, off-shore drilling platforms and large computer installations supporting a national network). Where such difficulties exist expenditure is allocated to the State of the businesses’ head office. SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT 36 The quarterly actual new capital expenditure series in this publication are affected to some extent by seasonal influences and it is useful to recognise and take account of this element of variation. 37 Seasonal adjustment is a means of removing the estimated effects of normal seasonal variation from the series so that the effects of other influences can be more clearly recognised. 38 Seasonal adjustment does not remove from the series the effect of irregular or non-seasonal influences (e.g. a change in interest rates), and reflect the sampling and other errors to which the original figures are subject. Particular care should be taken in interpreting quarterly movements in the adjusted figures in this publication, particularly for recent quarters. It should be noted that the seasonally adjusted figures necessarily reflect the sampling and other errors to which the original figures are subject. 39 Seasonal adjusted estimates in this publication have been derived by independently adjusting State estimates by type of asset and then adding them to form State/Territory capital expenditure estimates. This publication contains seasonally adjusted estimates by type of asset for all States except Tasmania, NT and ACT where only totals are available. Seasonally adjusted for Tasmania, NT and ACT have not been published at the type of asset level because of volatility within the series. 40 The seasonally adjusted Australian estimates of new capital expenditure included in the publication are consistent with those published in Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia (Cat. no. 5625.0). These estimates are derived independently of the seasonally adjusted State/Territory estimates and as such the residual difference between the States and Australia estimates should not be regarded as seasonally adjusted estimates for Tasmania, ACT and NT. 41 At least once each year the seasonally adjusted series are revised to take account of the latest available data. The most recent reanalysis takes into account data collected up to and including the March quarter 2001 survey. Data for periods after March 2001 are seasonally adjusted on the basis of extrapolation of historical patterns. The nature of the seasonal adjustment process is such that the magnitude of some revisions resulting from reanalysis may be quite significant, especially for data for more recent quarters. TREND ESTIMATES 42 The trend estimates are derived by applying a 7-term Henderson moving average to the seasonally adjusted series. The 7-term Henderson average (like all Henderson averages) is symmetric, but as the end of a time series is approached, asymmetric forms of the average are applied. Unlike the weights of the standard 7-term Henderson moving average, the weights employed here have been tailored to suit the particular characteristics of individual series. While the asymmetric weights enable trend estimates for recent quarters to be produced, it does result in revisions to the estimates for the most recent three quarters as additional observations become available. There may also be revisions because of changes in the original data and as a result of the re-estimation of the seasonal factors. 43 For further information, see Information Paper: A Guide to Interpreting Time Series-Monitoring Trends: an Overview (Cat. no. 1348.0) or contact the Assistant Director, Time Series Analysis on Canberra 02 6252 6345. DESCRIPTION OF TERMS 44 A description of the terms used in this publication is given below:
45 Some estimates are dissected by type of asset:
FRAME 46 A list of all members of the target population for a survey. The frame for this survey is a list of all businesses in the ANZSIC divisions, subdivisions and groups listed in paragraph 3. This is extracted from the ABS Business Register, which is a list of all employing Australian businesses, as described in paragraph 5&6. COMPARISON WITH OTHER ABS STATISTICS 47 The statistics for new capital expenditure shown in this publication differ from estimates of private gross fixed capital expenditure shown in the Australian National Accounts for the following reasons:
48 For a more detailed explanation of the concepts and methods used in compiling the National Accounts estimates see Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods (Cat. no. 5216.0). RELATED PUBLICATIONS 49 Users may also wish to refer to the following publications:
50 Current publications produced by the ABS are listed in the Catalogue of Publications and Products, Australia (Cat. no. 1101.0). The ABS also issues, on Tuesdays and Fridays, a Release Advice (Cat. no. 1105.0) which lists publications to be released in the next few days. The Catalogue and Release Advice are available from any ABS office. ABS DATA AVAILABLE ON REQUEST 51 In addition to the data contained in this publication, more detailed industry information may be made available on request. SYMBOLS AND OTHER USAGES
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