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SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

		Sep Qtr 07	Jun Qtr 07 to Sep Qtr 07	Sep Qtr 06 to Sep Qtr 07
		$m	% change	% change
Trend estimates(a)
	Total new capital expenditure	20 406	1.2	12.2
	Buildings & structures	8 727	0.6	15.5
	Equipment, plant & machinery	11 713	1.8	9.9
Seasonally adjusted(a)
	Total new capital expenditure	19 638	-6.5	9.0
	Buildings & structures	8 272	-9.4	11.6
	Equipment, plant & machinery	11 495	-2.3	7.8
(a) In volume terms.

New Capital Expenditure, in volume terms

• The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure (in volume terms) increased by 1.2% in the September quarter 2007 while the seasonally adjusted estimate decreased by 6.5%.
• The equipment, plant and machinery trend volume estimate increased 1.8% in the September quarter 2007. In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate fell by 2.3%.
• The trend estimate for buildings and structures increased 0.6% this quarter while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 9.4%.

• This issue includes the fourth estimate for 2007-08.
• The fourth estimate for 2007-08 is $83,834m. This is 20.1% higher than the fourth estimate for 2006-07. Estimate 4 is 6.0% higher than the third estimate for 2007-08.
• See pages 6 to 9 for further commentary on expectations data.

Recently, the ABS has implemented improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. The revision properties of the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates can be improved by the use of ARIMA modelling. ARIMA modelling relies on the characteristics of the series being analysed to project future period data. The projected values are temporary, intermediate values, that are only used internally to improve the estimation of the seasonal factors. The projected data do not affect the original estimates and are discarded at the end of the seasonal adjustment process. This collection will use, from the 2007 annual seasonal reanalysis, concurrent seasonal adjustment with ARIMA modelling where applicable to reduce the level of revision to seasonally adjusted capital expenditure estimates.

REVISIONS IN THIS ISSUE

The trend break adjustment required for the March 2007 quarter volume estimates was not applied to the individual State building and structures series published last quarter. (Plant and equipment and total trend estimates were correct). The effect of this is that calculated movements for all quarters except the December to March movement were correct, but the levels prior to March quarter were too high. This is correct for all series except Northern Territory movements between December 1999 and March 2000 and December 2000 and March 2001 where the published movements were incorrect due to an error in sourcing these cells. December 2006 to March 2007 movements should not be used as estimates up to and including December 2006 exclude Telstra, whereas, the March 2007 and subsequent estimates include Telstra. Remaining revisions to December quarter data are a result of the replacement of previously imputed data, which is a normal occurrence, along with changes due to the introduction of the new reference year.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Scott Johnston on Sydney (02) 9268 4357.