5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Sep 2006
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/11/2006
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SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS ACTUAL EXPENDITURE (VOLUME TERMS)
EXPECTED EXPENDITURE (CURRENT TERMS)
NOTES FORTHCOMING ISSUES
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE As happens each year, a seasonal re-analysis has been undertaken based on estimates up to and including the June quarter 2006. As part of this year's re-analysis, a number of the aggregation structures were amended to bring the seasonal adjustment methodology more into line with that used for the equivalent National Accounts series. This has resulted in revisions to seasonally adjusted estimates for most time series in this release.
ACTUAL NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE IN VOLUME TERMS TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE The trend estimate for total capital expenditure in the September quarter decreased 1.1%, but remains at a high level after 21 consecutive increases. Seasonally adjusted there was a large fall this quarter (6.0%), following five quarters of growth. Buildings and structures recorded the strongest decrease (down 12%) and is driven by Mining. BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES The trend estimate for buildings and structures decreased 0.5% this quarter, the first fall in 18 quarters. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate decreased 11.8% following strong growth in the last 4 quarters. The decrease this quarter is mainly driven by Mining. EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY The trend estimate for equipment, plant and machinery decreased 1.6% in the September quarter 2006, the second consecutive fall. In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate has decreased by 2.5%, the third consecutive decline, following three quarters of growth. There has been a fall across all the broad industries, with Mining recording the largest fall of 12%. MINING The trend estimate for Mining decreased 3.4% this quarter, the first decrease in eight quarters. In seasonally adjusted terms, there was a large fall of 16.6%, after five quarters of strong growth. Both asset types have declined, with building and structures falling 19% and equipment, plant and machinery 12%. MANUFACTURING The trend estimate for Manufacturing has decreased 4.3% this quarter, the third consecutive fall. In seasonally adjusted terms, the estimate has decreased 2.5% which is the fourth consecutive fall. A decrease in expenditure on both asset types contributed to the fall. OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES The trend estimate for Other selected industries has increased 0.2%. In seasonally adjusted terms the estimate decreased 1.3% with declines in expenditure on both asset types. FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6. Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in paragraphs 24 to 27 of the Explanatory Notes.
TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE The fourth estimate for 2006-07 is $69,870m which is 10.3% higher than the comparable estimate for 2005-06 and 9.8% higher than the third estimate for 2006-07. This increase has been in both building and structures and equipment, plant and machinery and is across the majority of industries with Mining (11%), Property and business services (11%) and Transport and storage (31%) recording the highest increases. BUILDING AND STRUCTURES Estimate 4 for 2006-07 is 28.6% higher than Estimate 4 for 2005-06 and 10.9% higher than Estimate 3. Mining (12%) and Transport and storage (69%) have had strong increases this quarter. Small increases in Property and business and Other Services, have been mainly offset by Retail and Wholesale. EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY The fourth estimate for 2006-07 is 1.8% lower than the comparable estimate for 2005-06 but 8.9% higher than Estimate 3 for 2006-07. With the exception of Construction, all industries have increased since Estimate 3, with Property and business (15%), Transport (12%), Retail (13%) and Wholesale (18%) recording the strongest increases. MINING Estimate 4 for 2006-07 is 38.3% higher than the comparable estimate for 2005-06 and 10.6% higher than Estimate 3 for 2006-07. Both building and structures (13%) and equipment, plant and machinery (6%) increased. MANUFACTURING Estimate 4 for 2006-07 is 13.3% lower than Estimate 4 for 2005-06 and 4.6% higher than Estimate 3 for 2006-07. The increase is driven by equipment, plant and machinery (7%), with a relatively flat result in buildings and structures. OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES Estimate 4 for 2006-07 is the highest estimate 4 on record and is 8.6% higher than the corresponding estimate for 2005-06. Estimate 4 has increased 11.3% from Estimate 3. Both buildings and structures (13%) and equipment, plant and machinery (10%) increased. All components of Other selected industries recorded increases, with the exception of Construction, the strongest movement coming from Transport (31%) and Property and business services (11%). IN CURRENT PRICE TERMS PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE SERIES The projected series below apply historical realisation ratios to contemporary expectations to convert these to quarterly figures. Trend estimates of resultant quarterly time series of actual and expected expenditure are produced.
BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES Current price trend estimates for buildings and structures have displayed sustained growth over the past few years, flattening out over the past two quarters. Expectations for the remainder of the financial year suggest that this growth rate is projected to increase towards the end of 2006-07. EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY Current price trend estimates for equipment, plant and machinery have shown strong growth over the past two financial years, with the growth rate falling over the past two quarters. Expectations indicate that expenditure will continue to fall over the remainder of the 2006-07 financial year. MINING Current price trend estimates for Mining have increased sharply over the 2005-06 financial year being driven by growth on buildings and structures. Expectations suggest that spending will flatten out over the first half of this financial year but will sustain recent high levels of expenditure throughout 2006-07. MANUFACTURING Current price trend estimates for Manufacturing look to have reached a peak in 2005-06. Recent quarters and expectations suggest that the expenditure will weaken considerably over the current financial year. OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES Current price trend estimates for Other selected industries have had a steady growth rate over recent years. Expectations suggest that this growth will continue steadily over the next financial year. Document Selection These documents will be presented in a new window.
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