JUNE KEY FIGURES
 | | Jun Qtr 04 | Mar Qtr 04 to Jun Qtr 04 | Jun Qtr 03 to Jun Qtr 04 | |
| | $m | % change | % change | |
| |
| Trend estimates(a) | | | | |
| Total new capital expenditure | 13,743 | 0.7 | 4.9 | |
| Buildings & structures | 3,775 | 1.2 | 10.3 | |
| Equipment, plant & machinery | 9,955 | 0.4 | 2.8 | |
| Seasonally adjusted(a) | | | | |
| Total new capital expenditure | 14,023 | 5.8 | 9.2 | |
| Buildings & structures | 3,835 | 4.1 | 14.1 | |
| Equipment, plant & machinery | 10,188 | 6.5 | 7.4 | |
| |
| (a) In volume terms. |
New Capital Expenditure, in volume terms
| |
JUNE KEY POINTS
ACTUAL EXPENDITURE
- The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure (in volume terms) increased by 0.7% in the June Quarter 2004. It increased 5.8% in seasonally adjusted terms.
- While the rate of growth in the trend estimate has been decreasing over the past two years, this decrease has slowed in recent quarters. Steady growth in equipment, plant and machinery has largely offset declining growth rates in building and structures.
- Trend estimates for expenditure by Mining have fallen for the past three quarters, while expenditure by Manufacturing has increased for the first time in four quarters. Expenditure by Other selected industries has continued to increase at a steady rate.
EXPECTED EXPENDITURE
- This issue includes the seventh estimate for 2003-04 and the third estimate for 2004-05.
- Estimate 7 for 2003-04 is $51,244m. This estimate is slightly higher than both the comparable estimate for 2002-03 and Estimate 6 for 2003-04.
- Estimate 3 for 2004-05 is $49,161m, which is slightly lower than the comparable estimate for 2003-04 but is 8.8% higher than Estimate 2 for 2004-05.
- See pages 5 and 6 for further commentary on expectations data
NOTES
CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE
This issue contains a feature article introducing a new experimental series on projected capital expenditure. The article also contains some information on the valuation basis businesses use to provide the ABS with data on expected expenditure.
A new base year, 2002-03, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which has resulted in revisions to growth rates in subsequent periods. In addition, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2002-03, thereby preserving additivity in the quarters after the reference year. Re-referencing affects the levels of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.
CHANGES IN NEXT ISSUE
The graphs and accompanying analysis of the various series in this release will be expanded from next quarter:
- seasonally adjusted estimates will be incorporated into the presentation of actual expenditure by asset type and industry, which currently focus on trend estimates only;
- the presentation of expected expenditure will be expanded to include an industry dissection, along with the current asset dissection; and
- the new series on projected expenditure will become a standard part of the release.
These changes are designed to provide users with more information to assist them in interpreting capital expenditure estimates.
EXPECTATIONS BY ASSET TYPE
Estimates of actual and expected capital expenditure in this release are produced by type of asset: buildings and structures; and equipment, plant and machinery. In the case of some large, customised mining and industrial developments, aligning the components of these developments with the ABS's asset classification can be problematic. The ABS works with businesses to gain a full understanding of the nature of these developments, with a view to ensuring that data feeding into estimates of gross fixed capital formation in the Australian National Accounts from different sources does not contain errors of duplication or omission. In the planning stages of these developments, however, it is sometimes the case that incomplete understanding of these developments can lead to a misclassification of assets. Given this, users should exercise some caution when interpreting expected expenditure by type of asset. In particular, these estimates are subject to higher rates of revision than other estimates in this release.
INQUIRIES
For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Fiona Cotsell on Sydney (02) 9268 4357.
ACTUAL NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE - TREND
QUARTERLY TREND ESTIMATES OF CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES
BY ASSET
The trend estimate for buildings and structures increased by 1% in the June quarter 2004, the tenth consecutive quarter of growth. The rate of growth has slowed considerably in recent quarters after reaching a peak in September quarter 2002. Manufacturing and Other selected industries both increased this quarter. The trend estimate for expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery increased slightly this quarter. The rate of growth (0.4%) was relatively unchanged from the previous two quarters. Manufacturing increased this quarter after three quarters of decreases, while Other selected industries continued several quarters of growth.
BY INDUSTRY
Trend estimates for expenditure by Mining have decreased over the past three quarters, although the levels of expenditure are still high after several years of strong growth. Decreased expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery has caused most of the recent falls. The trend estimate for expenditure by Manufacturing rose by 2% in June quarter 2004, the first increase in four quarters. Expenditure on both equipment, plant and machinery (up 1%) and buildings and structures (up 6%) has risen this quarter. The trend estimate for Other selected industries increased by a similar amount (2%) to recent quarters. The growth rate for equipment, plant and machinery has remained relatively unchanged whilst buildings and structures has slowed slightly.
ACTUAL AND EXPECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES
The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6. Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in paragraphs 24 to 27 of the Explanatory Notes.
The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:
TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
Estimate 7 for 2003-04 has increased slightly (by 0.8%) from the comparable estimate for 2002-03. An increase in Mining (up 6%) offset a decrease in Transport (down 2%). There has been a slight increase compared to Estimate 6 for 2003-04.
The third estimate for 2004-05 is $49,161m which is slightly lower (0.6%) than the comparable estimate for 2003-04, but is 9% higher than the second estimate for 2004-05. The increase from Estimate 2 was seen across most industries with Manufacturing (up 12%), Property and Business (up 15%) and Other Services (12%) all having strong growth, whilst Retail decreased slightly.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES
Estimate 7 for 2003-04 is 20% higher than the final estimate for 2002-03 but has decreased slightly compared to Estimate 6. Both Mining (up 8%) and Other services (up 49%) have contributed strongly to the growth from the comparable estimate for 2002-03.
Estimate 3 for 2004-05 is 9% higher than estimate 3 for 2003-04 and 10% higher than Estimate 2. The increase since Estimate 2 was across most industries, with only Retail showing a slight decrease.
CAPITAL EXPENDITURE ON EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY
Estimate 7 for 2003-04 fell 6% from the comparable estimate for 2002-03 but increased slightly from Estimate 6 for 2003-04. Transport (up 12%) and Property and business services (up 5%) have both increased since Estimate 6, whilst Mining has decreased (9%).
The third estimate for 2004-05 is 6% lower than the comparable estimate for 2003-04 but 8% higher than Estimate 2 for 2004-05. Manufacturing increased significantly compared to Estimate 2 (up 15%), whilst Wholesale (up 42%) and Finance and insurance (up 20%) also had strong growth.
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