5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Dec 2003

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 26/02/2004

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Main Features
About this Release

December Key Figures


		Dec Qtr 03	Sep Qtr 03 to Dec Qtr 03	Dec Qtr 02 to Dec Qtr 03
		$m	% change	% change

Trend estimates(a)
	Total new capital expenditure	14,264	2.5	11.0
	Buildings & structures	3,335	0.2	6.3
	Equipment, plant & machinery	10,922	3.1	12.4
Seasonally adjusted(a)
	Total new capital expenditure	14,310	2.0	2.5
	Buildings & structures	3,303	-1.7	3.6
	Equipment, plant & machinery	11,007	3.1	2.1

(a) In volume terms.

New Capital Expenditure, in volume terms
Graph: cap_graphs_Key Fig Graph

December Key Points

ACTUAL EXPENDITURE

The trend estimate for total new capital expenditure (in volume terms) increased by 2.5% in the December quarter 2003. There have been increases in expenditure in each of the last nine quarters but the rate of growth in 2003 has not been as strong as in 2002.
The trend estimate for buildings and structures increased slightly, by 0.2%, in the December quarter 2003. However, the rate of growth has slowed significantly in recent quarters. Growth in Mining has been largely offset by falls in Manufacturing and Other selected industries.
The trend estimate for expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery continued to grow strongly in the December quarter 2003. Mining and Other selected industries contributed all the growth in the latest quarter.

EXPECTED EXPENDITURE

This issue includes the fifth estimate for 2003-04 and the first estimate for 2004-05.
Estimate 5 for 2003-04 is $51,006m. This estimate is relatively unchanged from the comparable estimate for 2002-03 and 0.4% lower than Estimate 4.
Estimate 1 for 2004-05 is $41,781m, which is 4.6% lower than the comparable estimate for 2003-04.
See pages 5 and 6 for further commentary on expectations data.

Notes

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Didier Rivet on Sydney 02 9268 4357.

ACTUAL NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE TREND

Quarterly trend Estimates of Chain Volume Measures

BY ASSET

The trend estimate for buildings and structures increased for the eighth consecutive quarter in the December quarter 2003. However, the rate of growth has slowed significantly in recent quarters. The trend estimate for Manufacturing and Other selected industries fell slightly, while Mining continued to increase at a steady rate. The trend estimate for expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery continued to grow strongly in the December quarter 2003. Manufacturing fell slightly for the first time following nine quarters of growth, while Mining and Other selected industries increased.

BY INDUSTRY

Trend estimates for expenditure by Mining continued to increase strongly following several quarters of steady growth. In trend terms expenditure on both buildings and structures (up 5%) and equipment, plant and machinery (up 6%) have continued to increase this quarter. The trend estimate for expenditure by Manufacturing fell by 1%, following nine quarters of growth. Expenditure on equipment fell by 1%, and building and structures fell for the third consecutive quarter, following five quarters of very strong growth. The trend estimate for Other selected industries increased for the tenth consecutive quarter. Expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery increased by 4%, while expenditure on buildings and structures fell by 2%.

ACTUAL AND EXPECTED NEW CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

FINANCIAL YEARS AT CURRENT PRICES

The graphs below show the seven estimates of actual and expected expenditure for each financial year. The estimates appearing below relate to data contained in tables 5 and 6. Advice about the application of realisation ratios to these estimates is in paragraphs 24 to 27 of the Explanatory Notes.

The timing and construction of these estimates are as follows:

Total Capital Expenditure

Estimate 5 for 2003-04 is relatively unchanged from the comparable estimate for 2002-03 and slightly lower than estimate 4 for 2003-04. Mining (up 16%) was the only significant increase from the previous year. This increase was offset by significant falls in and Transport and storage (down 13%), Construction (down 11%) and Other services (down 9%).

The first estimate of expenditure for 2004-05 is 5% lower than the first estimate for 2003-04. While Mining has very strong expectations (up 11%) for 2004-05, there are significant falls in expectations for Retail (down 23%), Other services (down 17%), Transport and storage (down 11%) and Manufacturing (down 8%).

Capital Expenditure on buildings and structures

Estimate 5 for 2003-04 is 8% higher than estimate 5 from 2002-03 and 3% lower than the 4th estimate recorded last quarter. Mining and Other services had strong increases from the previous year, while Retail, Construction and Transport and storage fell.

The first estimate for 2004-05 is 10% lower than for 2003-04, with Retail (down 48%) and Manufacturing (down 27%) contributing most significantly to this decrease.

Capital Expenditure on equipment, plant and machinery

Estimate 5 for 2003-04 is $35,691m, which is relatively unchanged from Estimate 4 for 2003-04. Estimate 5 is 3% lower than Estimate 5 for 2002-03. This was driven by an 18% decrease in Other services.

Estimate 1 for 2004-05 is $29,140m, which is 2% lower than estimate 1 for 2003-04. Most industries remained relatively unchanged, although Mining had a significant 30% increase, while Other services and Transport and storage fell, by 22% and 21% respectively.