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MAY KEY FIGURES

	March 2005	April 2005	May 2005	Apr 05 to May 05
	$m	$m	$m	% change
Trend
Balance on goods & services	-2,340	-1,672	-1,596	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	13,603	14,365	14,516	1
Debits (imports of goods & services)	15,943	16,037	16,112	-
Seasonally Adjusted
Balance on goods & services	-2,508	-1,558	-1,556	. .
Credits (exports of goods & services)	13,355	14,484	14,727	2
Debits (imports of goods & services)	15,863	16,042	16,283	2
. . not applicable
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

Balance on goods and services

• The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,596m in May 2005, a decrease of $76m on the deficit in April.
• Goods and services credits rose $151m (1%) to $14,516m. Non-rural and other goods rose $155m (2%) and rural goods rose $14m (1%). Services credits fell $18m (1%).
• Goods and services debits rose $75m to $16,112m. Intermediate and other goods rose $63m (1%) and capital goods rose $38m (1%), while consumption goods fell $11m. Services debits fell $15m.

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,556m in May, a marginal decrease of $2m on the deficit in April.
• Goods and services credits rose $243m (2%) to $14,727m. Non-rural and other goods rose $218m (2%), and rural goods rose $8m. Services credits rose $17m (1%).
• Goods and services debits rose $241m (2%) to $16,283m. Intermediate and other goods rose $222m (4%), consumption goods rose $26m (1%) and capital goods rose $1m. Services debits fell $8m.

• In original terms, the May balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,336m, a decrease of $206m on the deficit in April. Goods and services credits rose $401m (3%) and goods and services debits rose $195m (1%).
• In the eleven months to May, exports of non-rural and other goods were up $15.1b (20%) and rural goods were up $1.6b (7%) on the corresponding period in 2003-04.

FEATURE ARTICLE

A feature article providing updated information on export and import currencies will be released on the ABS web site <https://www.abs.gov.au> with the June issue of this publication.

This article will identify the major invoice currencies used for Australia's exports and imports and analyse any changes in their composition over the last five calendar years. Additionally, for the five quarters from March quarter 2004 to March quarter 2005, the article will examine currency invoices for major commodities and commodity groups, classified to the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC Rev 3).

Similar articles have appeared in the March quarter 1998, March quarter 2001 and March quarter 2003 issues of International Merchandise Trade, Australia (ABS cat. no. 5422.0). To access these articles on the web site select: Themes then Economy then International Trade then Topics of Interest.

TREND ESTIMATES

As advised in the previous issue of this publication, an estimated trend break correction of $600m has been applied in April 2005 as a result of the significant increase in the price of some non-rural export commodities. Once a minimum of three months data after the trend break are available, the size of the trend break will be measured using time series techniques and may be revised.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Tom Jebbink on Canberra (02) 6252 5540.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in May 2005 was a deficit of $1,596m, a decrease of $76m on the deficit in April.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in May 2005 was a deficit of $1,556m, a marginal decrease of $2m on the deficit in April.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $151m (1%) between April and May to $14,516m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $243m (2%) to $14,727m. Non-rural and other goods rose $218m (2%), rural goods rose $8m and services credits rose $17m (1%).

Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $8m to $2,097m.

In original terms, exports of rural goods rose $125m (6%) to $2,221m.

The main movement in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms was wool and sheepskins, up $39m (17%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of 2% over the previous three years.

Offsetting this effect were:

• other rural, up $83m (9%), compared with an average April to May rise of 16% over the previous three years
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $52m (14%), compared with an average April to May fall of (4%) over the previous three years
• meat and meat preparations, up $55m (9%), compared with an average April to May rise of (12%) over the previous three years.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $218m (2%) to $9,729m.

In original terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $512m (5%) to $9,929m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• other goods, up $258m (42%), compared with an average April to May rise of 8% over the previous three years (largely driven by increased volumes of non-monetary gold between April and May)
• other non-rural, up $132m (16%), compared with an average April to May rise of 1% over the previous three years
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $96m (5%), compared with an average April to May rise of 2% over the previous three years
• other mineral fuels, up $43m (4%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of 1% over the previous three years.

• metals (excluding gold), down $151m (18%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 5% over the previous three years
• transport equipment, down $92m (17%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 12% over the previous three years.

SERVICES CREDITS

Seasonally adjusted, services credits rose $17m (1%) to $2,901m.

Movements in the seasonally adjusted component contributing to the rise were:

• travel services, up $12m (1%)
• other services, up $11m (1%).

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services credits rose $12m (1%) to $1,787m.

IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $75m between April and May to $16,112m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $241m (2%) to $16,283m.

Intermediate and other goods rose $222m (4%), consumption goods rose $26m (1%) and capital goods rose $1m while services debits fell $8m.

Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $26m (1%) to $3,998m.

In original terms, imports of consumption goods fell $197m (5%) to $3,684m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up marginally, in contrast to an average April to May fall of 6% over the previous three years
• toys, books and leisure goods, up $56m (22%), compared with an average April to May rise of 8% over the previous three years.

• non-industrial transport equipment, down $128m (11%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 3% over the previous three years
• food and beverages, down $33m (7%), compared with an average April to May fall of 1% over the previous three years.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose marginally to $3,144m.

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $369m (13%) to $3,201m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the marginal rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• machinery and industrial equipment, up $133m (13%), compared with an average April to May rise of 5% over the previous three years
• ADP equipment, up $79m (16%), compared with an average April to May rise of 1% over the previous three years
• civil aircraft, up $88m, compared with lower April to May rises over the previous three years.

• industrial transport equipment n.e.s, up $45m (10%), compared with an average April to May rise of 42% over the previous three years
• telecommunications equipment, up $11m (3%), compared with an average April to May rise of 24% over the previous three years.

In seasonally adjusted terms, intermediate and other goods imports rose $222m (4%) to $6,033m.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods rose $114m (2%) to $6,096m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $123m (9%), compared with an average April to May rise of 1% over the previous three years (while crude petroleum imports fell in both price and volume terms between April and May, there were large increases in imports of refined petroleum oils)
• other goods, up $62m (16%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of 8% over the previous three years
• iron and steel, up $50m (17%), compared with an average April to May rise of 9% over the previous three years
• primary industrial supplies n.e.s., up $3m (3%), in contrast to an average April to May fall of 13% over the previous three years.

• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., down $134m (10%), compared with an average April to May fall of 6% over the previous three years
• parts for transport equipment, down $18m (3%), in contrast to an average April to May rise of 1% over the previous three years.

SERVICES DEBITS

Seasonally adjusted, services debits fell $8m to $3,108m.

The main movement in the seasonally adjusted component contributing to this fall was freight transportation services, down $19m (3%).

Partly offsetting this effect was other services, up $6m (1%).

Seasonally adjusted, tourism related services debits fell $26m (2%) to $1,561m.