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05/12/2007 12:40pm Note: Table 38 has been replaced as the original table was not updated to September quarter 2007.


SEPTEMBER KEY FIGURES

		% change Jun qtr 07 to Sep qtr 07	% change Sep qtr 06 to Sep qtr 07
GDP (Chain volume measure)
	Trend	0.9	4.0
	Seasonally adjusted	1.0	4.3
Final consumption expenditure (Chain volume measure)
	Trend	0.8	3.6
	Seasonally adjusted	1.2	3.7
Gross fixed capital formation (Chain volume measure)
	Trend	2.1	10.5
	Seasonally adjusted	-0.3	10.6
GDP chain price index
	Original	0.2	3.2
Terms of trade
	Seasonally adjusted	-0.8	2.9
Real net national disposable income
	Trend	1.0	4.8
	Seasonally adjusted	1.0	5.1

GDP growth rates, Volume measures, quarterly change

Contributions to GDP growth, Expenditure: Seasonally adjusted

SEPTEMBER KEY POINTS


KEY AGGREGATES

• In trend terms, both GDP and Non-farm GDP increased by 0.9% in the quarter. GDP per hour worked in the market sector fell 0.2% and the Household saving ratio was 3.3.
• In seasonally adjusted terms, GDP increased by 1.0% in the September quarter. Non-farm GDP increased by 0.6%. The terms of trade decreased 0.8%, the first fall since December quarter 2001. Real gross domestic income rose 0.8%.

• In seasonally adjusted terms, the main contributors to the increase in expenditure on GDP were Household final consumption expenditure (0.7 percentage points), exports of goods and services (0.5 percentage points) and changes in private non-farm inventories (0.3 percentage points). The largest negative contribution came from Imports of goods and services (-0.5 percentage points).

• In seasonally adjusted terms, Agriculture, forestry and fishing (0.4 percentage points) and Finance and insurance (0.2 percentage points) were the largest contributors to GDP growth. Mining detracted 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth.

• the quarterly series have been benchmarked to revised estimates from the annual supply and use tables for 2003-04 to 2005-06. The revised annual benchmarks were first published in the Australian System of National Accounts (cat. no. 5204.0) released on 2 November 2007.
• a new base year, 2005-06, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which has resulted in revisions to growth rates in subsequent periods. In addition, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2005-06, thereby preserving additivity in the quarters after the reference year. Re-referencing affects the levels of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.
• the normal quarterly revisions due to the incorporation of more up-to-date source data and concurrent seasonal adjustment. Of note are revisions to household consumption estimates of financial services in the quarters of 2006-07, and revisions to various expenditure components in June quarter 2007.

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Some changes to the indicators used for estimating the non-farm component of quarterly Gross mixed income (GMI) have been implemented as of September quarter 2007. Unincorporated Gross Operating Profit (UGOP), sourced from the Quarterly Business Indicators Survey (QBIS), has been introduced as a key indicator for estimating quarterly movements in Non-farm GMI.

A change to the indicator used for estimating quarterly public sector Compensation of employees (COE) has also been implemented as of September quarter 2007 due to the cessation of the quarterly Survey of Employment and Earnings (SEE), public sector. These estimates are now sourced from the dataset underpinning the quarterly Government Finance Statistics (cat. no. 5519.0.55.001).

A change has also been made to the indicator for the gross value added of the Government Administration and Defence industry. The indicator was based on employment data from the SEE but now uses hours worked in the Government Administration and Defence industry from the Labour Force Survey (LFS).

CHANGES NEXT ISSUE

The December quarter 2007 release will contain revisions to many series due to the annual seasonal reanalysis, typically updated annually in the September quarter issue. From this time, the annual reanalysis will be updated in the December quarter. This change is possible due to the use of concurrent seasonal adjustment techniques.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Steve Whennan on Canberra (02) 6252 6711, email national.accounts@ abs.gov.au.