MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during October 2015 (631,300 movements) increased 0.8% when compared with September 2015. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 8.8% higher than in October 2014.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during October 2015. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for October 2014 and October 2015 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (26.1%), followed by Hong Kong (17.1%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - October 2015
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Sep '15 to Oct '15	Oct '14 to Oct '15
Country of Residence(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	109.4	108.0	131.2	-0.2	5.3
China	94.0	96.6	75.5	2.6	26.1
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	56.5	55.7	56.6	0.1	4.3
United States of America	52.0	53.7	51.0	1.6	9.8
Singapore	33.8	33.2	31.0	0.7	9.1
Japan	28.4	27.9	29.0	0.5	6.7
Malaysia	29.6	27.1	22.7	-0.1	6.8
Germany	16.0	16.3	19.6	1.0	1.8
Korea, South	18.2	19.1	18.9	1.6	4.2
Hong Kong	19.6	19.6	17.5	1.4	17.1
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:

1 The November 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% higher than October 2015.
2 The November 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.2% lower than October 2015.

The figure of 2.2% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during October 2015 (795,000 movements) increased 0.6% when compared with September 2015 (790,000 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 4.9% higher than in October 2014.

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures in October 2015. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for October 2014 and October 2015 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Japan (23.2%), followed by the United Kingdom (19.7%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Indonesia (0.2%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - October 2015
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Sep '15 to Oct '15	Oct '14 to Oct '15
Country of Stay(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
Indonesia	92.4	94.9	106.6	0.6	-0.2
New Zealand	104.7	104.7	95.1	-0.2	3.7
United States of America	86.1	87.4	88.8	0.7	4.8
Thailand	47.5	46.7	50.2	0.2	5.2
China	35.2	36.4	43.5	0.0	7.2
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	54.5	58.5	36.1	3.4	19.7
Singapore	31.4	31.3	33.0	0.9	3.6
Fiji	28.1	28.3	32.9	-0.3	2.7
India	22.8	23.9	24.7	-0.6	0.3
Japan	26.4	26.3	23.3	2.3	23.2
(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:

1 The November 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% higher than October 2015.
2 The November 2015 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.4% lower than October 2015.

The figure of 2.4% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 30 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example, in the year 2011, there were over 14 million multiple movements accounting for 46% of all movements (see paragraph 7 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0); the Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005); and the Technical Note: '12/16 month rule' Methodology for Calculating Net Overseas Migration from September quarter 2006 onwards in Migration, Australia (cat. no. 3412.0) under the Explanatory Notes tab.

There were 9,360 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during October 2015, a decrease of 8.4% compared with October 2014 (10,220 movements). People born in India accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (14.8%), followed by people born in China (14.7%), and people born in New Zealand (10.6%).

There were 7,530 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during October 2015, an increase of 8.8% compared with October 2014 (6,920 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas.


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of numeric and/or percentage changes between two estimates does not take into account whether the change is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage changes by taking into consideration the size of the standard error of these estimates changes. Please see the Standard Errors section (under the Explanatory Notes tab) of this issue for more detail.