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INTRODUCTION Have you ever wondered which regions in Australia have the grown the most between 2001 and 2006? Or which regions have the highest turnover of people moving into and out of them? This article uses data from the 2001 and 2006 Censuses of Population and Housing to examine these important questions. It uses common concepts of ‘growth’ and ‘turnover’ to explore:
This article will be of particular interest to policy analysts and planners involved in the planning, design and delivery of services and infrastructure, and for understanding regional labour markets. REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN POPULATION GROWTH, 2001 TO 2006 The average annual population growth rate in Australia, based on Census counts, was 1.3% between 2001 and 2006. Across the 515 different LGAs with a Census population count of more than 1500 in 2001, average annual population growth varied between an increase of 9.1% in Capel (S) in Western Australia, 212 kms south of Perth, to a decrease of 6.1% in Leonora (S), in the gold fields region of Western Australia. Map 1 and Table 2 show the regional variations in the average annual population growth rates in Australia between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts. The LGA with the second highest average annual growth rate between 2001 and 2006 was Melton (S) in Victoria with 8.8%, probably associated with the expansion of new housing development within a commutable distance to Melbourne. The capital city LGAs of Perth (C) and Melbourne (C) had the third and fourth highest population growth with average annual growth rates of 8.6% and 7.1% respectively. The Perth suburb of Wanneroo (C) had the fifth highest growth rate of 6.5%. Those LGAs with the lowest rates of average annual population growth include remote areas of Australia such as Leonora (S) and Dalwallinu (S) in the wheatbelt region of Western Australia, Cloncurry (S) in the far northwest of Queensland, Cooper Pedy (DC) in outback South Australia and the Central Darling (A) region of New South Wales. Map 1. AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH - Local Government Areas, 2001 to 2006
Table 1. AVERAGE ANNUAL POPULATION GROWTH RATES - Top Ten and Bottom Ten LGAs, 2001 to 2006 (a)
(a) Based on 2006 Census boundaries and excludes Unincorporated areas and LGAs with 2001 population of under 1500 (b) Average annual growth rate in usual resident population between the 2001 and 2006 Census is calculated as a percentage using the following formula where P0 is the population at the start of the period, Pn is the population at the end of the period and n is the length of the period between P0 and Pn in years: [(Pn/P0)1/n-1] x 100. Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2001 and 2006 Note: This table is based on place of usual residence. Cells in this table have been randomly adjusted to avoid the release of confidential data REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN POPULATION TURNOVER, 2001 TO 2006 In contrast to growth rates, turnover rates measure the extent to which there is movement of people into and out of a region. Population turnover rates are an indicator of change in the composition of a region, and are of strong interest because they can help understand, for example, why the characteristics and needs of a region are changing significantly within the context of having a relatively stable population count. Population turnover rates differ quite significantly across Australia as shown in Map 2 and Table 2, and areas of high turnover are frequently regions where people are moving for work such as mining regions and inner city areas of major capitals. The Local Government Areas of Perth (C) , Melbourne (C) and Adelaide (C) together with Ashburton (M) in the Pilbara region of Western Australia and Nebo (S) and Weipa (T) in Queensland, make up the top six LGAs in terms of population turnover rates. Nebo (S) is in the Bowen Basin and Weipa (T) is the site of the world’s largest bauxite mine. Map 2. POPULATION TURNOVER RATES - Local Government Areas, 2001 to 2006 The LGAs with lowest population turnover rates include regional and remote areas including Yugul Mangi (CGC), Thamarrurr (CGC) and the Tiwi Islands (CGC) in the Northern Territory, Palm Island (S) and Yarrabah (C) in Queensland and Anangu Pitjantjatjara (AC) in South Australia. The turnover rate of each of these six LGAs is less than half the median turnover rate for all LGAs in Australia (499.6 per thousand population). Other LGAs with a low population turnover rate include urban areas such as Wollongong (C) in New South Wales, and Greater Geelong (C) in Victoria. Table 2. POPULATION TURNOVER RATES, Top Ten and Bottom Ten LGAs - 2001 to 2006 (a)
(a) Based on 2006 Census boundaries and excludes Unincorporated areas and LGAs with 2001 population of under 1500 (b) Excludes people in the 2006 Census who were aged 0-4 years and therefore would not have been counted in the 2001 Census, and those who did not state where they lived 5 years ago (c) Excludes people in the 2006 Census who were aged 0-4 years and therefore would not have been counted in the 2001 Census, those who did not state where they lived 5 years ago, and overseas departures, (d) Calculated relative to a 2001 Census count, modified to exclude people in the 2006 Census who were aged 0-4 years and therefore would not have been counted in the 2001 Census, those who did not state where they lived 5 years ago, and overseas departures Source: Census of Population and Housing, 2001 and 2006 Note: This table is based on place of usual residence. Cells in this table have been randomly adjusted to avoid the release of confidential data POPULATION GROWTH AND TURNOVER, 2001 TO 2006 LGAs that experienced high population growth, based on Census counts, between 2001 and 2006 did not necessarily have high population turnover in that same period. For example, Ballarat (C) had an annual average population growth rate of 1.4% between 2001 and 2006, (compared to a median growth rate of 0.7% across all LGAs), but a population turnover rate of 347.8 per thousand between 2001 and 2006 (compared with a median turnover rate of 499.6 for all LGAs in Australia). To examine LGAs from both a population growth and a population turnover perspective, each LGA can be grouped into one of the following four categories: 1. Category one: high annual average population growth rate between 2001 and 2006, and a high population turnover rate between 2001 and 2006: 2. Category two: high growth and low turnover; 3. Category three: low growth and high turnover; 4. Category four: low growth and low turnover; For the purpose of this article, LGAs were classified as high/low population growth if their average annual population growth rate between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts was above/below the median annual average population growth rate for all LGAs in Australia (0.7%). LGAs were classified as high/ low turnover between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts if their population turnover rate between 2001 and 2006 was above/below the median turnover rate for all LGAs in Australia (499.6 per thousand). Map 3 presents the results of classifying LGAs into one of these four categories. Map 3. POPULATION GROWTH AND POPULATION TURNOVER RATES - Local Government Areas, 2001 to 2006 Table 3 illustrates examples of LGAs that fall into each of these four categories. Table 3. POPULATION TURNOVER AND GROWTH RATES - Selected Local Government Areas, 2001 to 2006
In category one, LGAs with high annual average population growth rates and high population turnover rates between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts typically include mining areas and inner city locations. For example, East Pilbara (S) in Western Australia had a population growth rate of 4.5 % (compared with a median of 0.7% for all LGAs) and a population turnover rate of 1075.9 per thousand (compared with a median of 499.6 for all LGAs). In category two, LGAs with high population growth and low population turnover between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts include larger regional centres and areas of new housing. For example, Gold Coast (C) in Queensland had a population growth rate of 3.1 % (compared with a median of 0.7%) and a population turnover rate of 464.6 per thousand (compared with a median of 499.6). In category three, LGAs with low population growth and high population turnover between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts are typically in rural and remote areas. For example, Longreach (S) in Queensland had a population growth rate of - 0.8% (compared with a median of 0.7%) and a population turnover rate of 697.6 per thousand (compared with a median of 499.6). In category four, LGAs with low population growth and low population turnover between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts are typically regional areas with older populations. For example, Broken Hill (C) in New South Wales had a population growth rate of - 0.1% (compared with a median of 0.7%) and a population turnover rate of 300.8 per thousand (compared with a median of 499.6). In 2006, Broken Hill had a median age of 42 compared with the median age of 37 for all of Australia. (Source: 2006 Census Community Profiles). The following sections of this article examine each of these categories in greater detail. LGAs with high population growth and high population turnover rates between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts are predominantly in Western Australia and Queensland. A total of 193 LGAs fell into this category; the majority of LGAs, 128 (or 65.8%, were located in Queensland (69) and Western Australia (59) (see Map 4). Other LGAs included Emerald (S), Chinchilla (S) and Warroo (S) which cover the area north of Brisbane up to the Bowen Basin region of Queensland (including Nebo (S)). Map 4. CATEGORY 1 LGAs: HIGH POPULATION GROWTH AND HIGH POPULATION TURNOVER RATES, 2001 TO 2006 In Western Australia, LGAs with high population growth and high population turnover are in expanding mining areas of East Pilbara (S), Ashburton (S) and Roebourne (S). There are also many in and around Perth and its environs including Perth (C), Swan (C), York (S) and Wanneroo (C). LGAs with high population growth and high population turnover in other states and territories include the mining town of Roxby Downs (M) in South Australia and inner city LGAs in Adelaide (C) in South Australia, Darwin(C) and Palmerston (C) in the Northern Territory, Melbourne (C), Stonnington (C) and Maribyrnong (C) in Victoria, and inner city Sydney (C) together with Auburn (A) and Parramatta (C) in New South Wales. CATEGORY 2 LGAs: HIGH POPULATION GROWTH AND LOW POPULATION TURNOVER RATES, 2001 TO 2006 A total of 140 LGAs fell into the category of high population growth and low population turnover rates between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts. The majority (104 or 74.3%) were in New South Wales (48), Victoria (27) and Queensland (29) (see Map 5). LGAs in this category include several with a high proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, including Thamarrurr (CGC) (92.7% Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people) in the Northern Territory, Mer (S) (96.5% Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people) and Wujal Wujal (S) in Queensland (94.2% Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people). (Source: Community Profiles 2006 Census). Several large regional centres had high population growth and low population turnover between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts including Greater Bendigo (C), Horsham (RC) and Warrnambool (C) in Victoria, Albury (C), Wagga Wagga (C) and Tamworth Regional (A) in New South Wales, together with the suburban growth region of Hume (C) in Victoria, and the local government area of Brisbane (C) in Queensland. Areas on the outskirts of major capitals that experienced high population growth and low population turnover between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts include Salisbury (C) and Playford (C) in Adelaide; Frankston (C) and Hume (C) in Melbourne; and Bankstown (C), Liverpool (C), Hornsby (A), and Blacktown (C) in Sydney. Map 5. CATEGORY 2 LGAs: HIGH POPULATION GROWTH AND LOW POPULATION TURNOVER RATES, 2001 TO 2006 . CATEGORY 3 LGAs: LOW POPULATION GROWTH AND HIGH POPULATION TURNOVER RATES, 2001 T0 2006 Similar to category 2, a total of 140 LGAs fell into the category of low population growth and high turnover between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts, with the majority, 125 (or 89.3%) in Western Australia (67), Queensland (41) and New South Wales (17). These LGAs include capital city LGAs of Sydney (C) and Perth (C), together with many rural and remote areas of Australia (see map 6). Map 6. CATEGORY 3 LGAs: LOW POPULATION GROWTH AND HIGH POPULATION TURNOVER RATES, 2001 TO 2006 CATEGORY 4 LGAs: LOW POPULATION GROWTH AND LOW POPULATION TURNOVER RATES, 2001 TO 2006 A total of 194 LGAs fell into the category of low population growth and low turnover between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts; the majority (141 or 72.7%) were in New South Wales (70), Victoria (36) and South Australia (35) (see Map 7). LGAs in the category of low population growth and low turnover between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts were mostly in regional areas in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Map 7. CATEGORY 4 LGAs: LOW POPULATION GROWTH AND LOW POPULATION TURNOVER RATES, 2001 TO 2006 LGAs with low population growth and low turnover between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts include Broken Hill (C) and Gundagai (A) in New South Wales, Ararat, (RC), Hepburn (S) and Southern Grampians (S) in Victoria, and Renmark Paringa (DC) and Whyalla (DC) in South Australia. The LGA of Launceston (C) in Tasmania is also in the category of low population growth and low turnover between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Local government areas were categorised into one of four categories based on varying population growth (high – low) and turnover (high – low). Using this categorisation, a number of key differences between regions can be observed. Many LGAs with high population growth and high turnover between 2001 and 2006 based on Census counts were in regional Western Australia and Queensland. Category two LGAs are typically larger regional centres. Category three LGAs are typically in rural and remote areas while category four LGAs are typically in regional areas with older populations. All data used in this article can be found in the datacube in the Downloads tab. This analysis is not without its limitations. The data used comes from the 2001 and 2006 Censuses of Population and Housing, It makes use of information about where people responded they lived five years ago to calculate turnover. Not all Australians respond to the Census, or complete this question. Furthermore, the Census itself is not the source of Australia’s official estimates of population growth or turnover. Official statistics regarding Australia's population, known as the Estimated Resident Population (ERP), are found in 'Australian Demographic Statistics' (cat. no. 3101.0). The average annual population growth and population turnover rates in this article are therefore indicators or proxies for actual population growth and turnover. More detail about these data and methodological limitations can be found in Appendix 2.
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1380.0.55.007 - Perspectives on Regional Australia: Population Growth and Turnover in Local Government Areas (LGAs), 2001 to 2006
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 29/10/2012 First Issue
This page last updated 15 March 2016