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POPULATION

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POPULATION CHANGE (a)

In the year to June 2007, Tasmania's population grew by 3,400 to a total of 493,300 people. This growth must be considered in the context of Tasmania's historical pattern of population change and the nature of Tasmania's components of population change. The components of population change are natural increase, interstate migration and overseas migration. In Tasmania, natural increase is the main source of population growth, while net interstate migration is usually the main source of population loss.

After experiencing population decline between 1996 and 2000 due to large interstate migration losses, Tasmania did not exceed its 1996 population until June 2003. The net growth experienced between June 2002 and 2004, seen in the graph below, was due to higher than average levels of net interstate migration. Between June 2005 and 2007, net interstate migration returned to its longer term trend of net loss; however, Tasmania did not return to population decline. This was due to larger than average gains from net overseas migration and natural increase over that period.

NATURAL INCREASE (a)

Natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) contributed 2,600 people to Tasmania's population growth of 3,400 people in the year to June 2007, and was therefore the main component of population change. The number of births per annum increased markedly from 2004 to 2007, from 5,800 to 6,600. The number of deaths over the 2003 to 2007 period remained relatively steady at around 4,000 deaths per annum.

NATURAL INCREASE, Tasmania	BIRTHS & DEATHS, Tasmania

At December 2006, Tasmania's standardised death rate was 6.8 deaths per 1,000 standard population. Even though Tasmania's population is ageing, the falling standardised death rate means Tasmanians are increasingly less likely to die at younger ages.


The total fertility rate (the number of babies a woman could expect to bear in her reproductive lifetime) varies by region within Tasmania. Mersey-Lyell Statistical Division (SD) had the highest fertility rate over the 2002 to 2006 period, reaching 2.13 babies per woman at December 2006, while the Northern SD had the lowest fertility rate (1.98).


NET MIGRATION (a)

Tasmania experiences a high flow of people to and from the State, with 12,300 people arriving and 12,800 departing in the year to June 2007, leading to a net loss of 450 people. This loss comes after a recent net migration high of 2,600 in the year to June 2004, coinciding with the peak of the housing boom. Tasmania attracts a low proportion of Australia's overseas migrants; however, we consistently receive a net gain. Over the 2005 to 2007 period, Tasmania gained more in net terms from overseas than from interstate migrants, with 1,300 overseas migrants arriving in the year to June 2007.




AGE STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION (a)

Tasmania's regions have different age structures which affect the current and future needs of the populations (as well as reflecting the current needs of the populations). The population pyramids below illustrate that Southern SD and Mersey-Lyell SD have low proportions of 20 to 29 year olds relative to the other age groups, while Greater Hobart SD has a relatively large proportion of 15 to 24 year olds. This affects where resources may be needed and may reflect the availability of tertiary education and employment opportunities.

POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (%), Greater Hobart		POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (%), Southern
Source: Population by Age and Sex, Australia, 2006 (cat. no. 3235.0)		Source: Population by Age and Sex, Australia, 2006 (cat. no. 3235.0)

POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (%), Northern		POPULATION BY AGE GROUP (%), Mersey-Lyell
Source: Population by Age and Sex, Australia, 2006 (cat. no. 3235.0)		Source: Population by Age and Sex, Australia, 2006 (cat. no. 3235.0)

Footnote: (a) Numbers in this section of commentary have been rounded, and will not exactly match those in the related spreadsheets.


SOURCES

Australian Demographic Statistics (ABS cat. no. 3101.0)

Births, Australia (ABS cat. no. 3301.0)

Deaths, Australia (ABS cat. no. 3302.0)

Demographic Estimates and Projections: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 1999 (ABS cat. no. 3228.0)