Overseas Arrivals and Departures

NAME OF ORGANISATION
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS)

OVERVIEW
Overseas Arrivals and Departures statistics are compiled from information entered on incoming and outgoing passenger cards, visa and other information available to the Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs (DIMA). Detailed electronic unit record data is available from July 1975.

PURPOSE
Overseas arrivals and departures data are mainly used to compile statistics on Australia's population, balance of payments, and international tourism.

Population estimates are used by Governments in policy formulation, particularly those policies relating to service delivery. Estimates are also used to monitor existing Government programs. Population estimates are used in determining the number of seats in each State/Territory in the House of Representatives (Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918). They are also used in the allocation of Commonwealth funds for general financial assistance and hospital funding purposes, both for State/Territory governments (A New Tax System (Commonwealth-State Financial Arrangements) Act 1999 and Medicare agreements) and local governments (Local Government (Financial Assistance) Act 1995).

Overseas arrivals and departures data are an important source of data for Australia's balance of payments transactions. In 1995-96, the value of transactions calculated using overseas arrivals and departures data represented about 13 per cent of all credits and 7 per cent of all debits in Australia's current account. Travel services made up the majority of these transactions (broken down into Students' expenditure and Other). Per capita expenditure figures for these calculations are taken from the International Visitors Survey conducted by the Bureau of Tourism Research and the Survey of Returned Australian Travellers conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Passenger cards are essential for the Survey of Returned Australian Travellers as they provide the sample for the survey. Overseas arrivals and departures data are also used to calculate Income credits and debits, particularly Labour income (Earnings in Australia and earnings abroad), and Unrequited transfers credits and debits (particularly Migrants' transfers and Miscellaneous transfers). In addition overseas arrivals and departures data are indirectly used as input to other balance of payments calculations.

International tourism in Australia is currently experiencing rapid growth. Overseas arrivals and departures data are required by Governments to examine the impacts of tourism on policy issues such as infrastructure and the labour market, monitoring and analysing tourism trends for tourism marketing strategies and establishing future directions. Providers of services such as airlines and other transport groups, tourist attractions, hotel groups and tourism retailers are major users of overseas arrivals and departures data which are required, with other sources of data, for market research.

SCOPE
Movements of travellers into and out of Australia (i.e. multiple movements of an individual during a given reference period are each counted separately). The statistics exclude the movements of operational air and ships' crew, transit passengers who pass through Australia but are not cleared for entry and passengers on pleasure cruises commencing and finishing in Australia aboard ships not then engaged on regular voyages.

DATA DETAIL

Conceptual framework
Movements of travellers in and out of Australia.
For more information see Demographic Estimates and Projections (ABS Cat. No. 3228.0); Concepts, Sources and Methods and Demography Working Paper 2001/7 - Statistical Requirements for Overseas Arrivals and Departures Data at September 2001

Main outputs
Unit record file, containing the following variables:

• Citizenship (Nationality)
• Country of birth
• Age (Date of birth)
• Sex
• Marital status (not available for Australia or New Zealand citizens)
• Category of travel
• Permanent migrant
  • Previous/future country of residence
  • State of intended address/lived
• Overseas visitor
  • Intended/actual length of stay
  • Main reason for journey
  • Country of residence
  • State or territory of intended address on arrival
  • State or territory in which most time spent on departure
• Australian residents
  • Intended/actual length of stay overseas
  • Country spent/intend to spend most time abroad
  • State or Territory of intended address/State or Territory lived
• Occupation (not available for short-term movements)
• Country of embarkation/disembarkation
• Airport/Port of arrival/departure
• Arrival/departure date (as month)
• Intention to live in Australia for next 12 months (not available for short-term movements)

Other concepts (summary)
n.a.

GEOGRAPHIC DETAIL
Australia
New South Wales
Victoria
Queensland
South Australia
Western Australia
Tasmania
Northern Territory
ACT

Comments and/or Other Regions


COLLECTION FREQUENCY
Monthly

Frequency comments
n.a

COLLECTION HISTORY

July 1975 -

electronic unit record data available.

change in unit record format with the introduction of Australian Standard Classification of Occupation (ASCO) to code occupation.

change in unit record format with the introduction of Australian Standard Classification of Countries for Social Statistics (ASCCSS) to code country.

new passenger card introduced, to incorporate health and character details as required by the Migration Reform Act 1992.

separate identification for Australian External Territories introduced.

minor changes to passenger cards.

introduction of projected short term visitor arrivals by country of residence based on information supplied by DIMA from their TRIPS database.

change to passenger cards to delete questions for which data is available from other Immigration sources.

Introduction of time actually spent in/out of Australia using TRIPS data.

Only preliminary data available until DIMA's new data capture system is working. As yet, no firm date has been given for the arrival of August 2000 data and subsequent months.

DIMA implemented a new electronic scanning passenger card processing system, rather than manual data entry. This resulted in big delays in data delivery affecting 2000 and 2001 publications.

BREAK IN TREND SERIES -
Short-term Resident departures (trend series): Indonesia, Total South-east Asia and Total — Bali bombing of 12 October 2002 — Decrease in STRDs.

All backlog data published by November 2002 issue.

Introduction of Short-term Visitor Arrivals to Australia, Preliminary (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001) - This is a preliminary publication for short-term visitor arrivals only. These preliminary data are based on data provided by DIMA's Travel and Immigration Processing System (TRIPS). Final estimates are provided in the relevant 3401.0.

Outgoing passenger card revised with the introduction of tick boxes for state or territory where most time spent (Box D).This resulted in improved response rates.

BREAK IN TREND SERIES -
Short-term Resident Departures (trend series): Indonesia, Total South-east Asia and Total — return to the trend levels experienced prior to the Bali bombing of 12 October 2002.

Introduction of Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3410.0.55.001) - This publication replaces Short-term Visitor Arrivals to Australia, Preliminary. This is a preliminary publication for short-term visitor arrivals only.
These preliminary data are based on data provided by DIMA's Travel and Immigration Processing System (TRIPS). Final estimates are provided in the relevant 3401.0

Country classification (ASCCSS) replaced by Standard Australian Classification of Countries (SACC) (cat. no. 1269.0).

3401.0 released as a Portable document Format file (ie Adobe Acrobat.pdf format).

Introduction of an improved method for removing trading day effects from seasonally adjusted estimates.

The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami occurred and was notified as a possible emerging issue.

A new set of standard errors applied to sampled estimates. This was due to the sample for short-term movements being increased as a result of a review, resulting in smaller standard errors.

Introduction of Ramadan correction for seasonal and trend time series estimates (Malaysia, Indonesia and Total South-East Asia).

Introduction of new incoming passenger card. The changes incorporated were minor and did not affect the OAD data items detailed in 3401.0 or associated products.

Introduction of an Easter correction for the United Kingdom for the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates.
In the April 2005 issue it was advised that the impact of the 26 December earthquake and tsunami on the affected countries was considered to be 'not significant'.

Introduction of a new method of presenting time series data to the AusStats service. The AusStats Time Series Spreadsheets are now presented in Excel format (.xls) replacing the spreadsheets that were previously provided in Lotus 1-2-3 (.WKS). See Information Paper: Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia, New Format Time Series Spreadsheets released 6/7/2005.

The annual review of the seasonal adjustment process was undertaken after the release of June 2005 data . This annual review provided the opportunity to confirm the extent to which movements are due to seasonal or irregular influences. As a result, there were revisions to a small number of series along with the normal seasonally adjusted and trend series estimates revisions.
Additionally, some seasonally adjusted series that had not previously been considered of publishable standard were published. These series were released over the period July and August in the monthly publication, time series spreadsheets and time series data files. These series were:
Short-term visitor arrivals — Belgium, Brazil, Brunei Darussalam, China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province), Ireland, Mexico, Spain, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Vanuatu and Viet Nam
Short-term resident departures — Croatia, Egypt, Korea, Norfolk Island, Samoa, Serbia and Montenegro, Sweden, Taiwan (Province of China) and Vanuatu.

TAKE CARE included —
Short-term Visitor Arrivals for Malaysia — large movements in series
Short-term Resident Departures Indonesia — Bali bombing (2 October 2005) — decline in STRD — possible break in series being monitored.

TAKE CARE included — BREAK IN TREND SERIES
Short-term Resident Departures (trend series): Indonesia, Total South-east Asia and Total — Bali bombing of 1 October 2005 — decline in STRD.

Technical Note Trend Revisions — The estimate used in the short-term resident departures scenario has been revised from 3.1% to 3.2%. This figure represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years.

Data revision — On advice from DIMA, October 2005 revised upwards (approx 7,800 movements) — publication (calendar and financial years), spreadsheets, data files amended.

Annual reanalysis of seasonally adjusted series undertaken - a number of small revisions inserted - new seasonally adjusted and trend series to be added to time series spreadsheets for the month of August 2006.

The annual review of the seasonal adjustment process was undertaken after the release of June 2006 data. Additional series are now disseminated via time series spreadsheets and data files. Some of these series have been disseminated with a warning regarding the reliability of the seasonally adjusted series. These series are identified below.

For short-term visitor arrivals the additional seasonally adjusted and trend series are: Russian Federation, Other Oceania and Antarctica, Other North-West Europe, Other Southern and Eastern Europe, Other North Africa and the Middle East, Other South-East Asia, Other North-East Asia, Other Southern and Central Asia, Other Americas and Other Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, East Timor is disseminated for the trend series only.

For short-term resident departures the additional seasonally adjusted and trend series are: Argentina, Brazil, Cambodia, Chile, Cook Islands, Mauritius, Mexico, Nepal, Tonga, the United Arab Emirates, Other Oceania and Antarctica, Other North-West Europe, Other Southern and Eastern Europe, Other North Africa and the Middle East, Other South-East Asia, Other Southern and Central Asia, Other Americas and Other Sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, East Timor, French Polynesia and Other North-East Asia are disseminated for the trend series only.

Warnings

Care should be taken when interpreting the seasonally adjusted estimates for the following series. The original series for these countries are volatile relative to the magnitude of the seasonal pattern. The seasonally adjusted estimates may not be reliable for these time series. This warning applies to:

Short-term visitor arrivals: Other North-West Europe; Other North-East Asia.

Short-term resident departures: Brazil, Cook Islands, Mauritius, Mexico, Other South-East Asia, Tonga and the United Arab Emirates.

TECHNICAL NOTE: TREND REVISIONS — The 'what-if' analysis in the Technical Note is presented to give an indicative view of the possible revision of the current trend estimate based on the different scenarios of the future seasonally adjusted estimates. These trend scenarios should not be used as a prediction of future trend estimates. From the November 2006 issue of Overseas Arrivals and Departures, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0) future scenarios will no longer be presented in the 'what-if' analysis.

Short-term resident departures to Indonesia, Total South-east Asia and Total — Break in trend series inserted from December 2006
Trend series breaks due to the increase in movements to Indonesia to levels closer to, but still lower than, the movements experienced prior to the Bali bombing of 1 October 2005.

Advice that permanent departures of Australian residents were overstated prior to July 1998. See Appendix 2, Data Quality Issues, July 1998 Processing.

Advice on:
Annual seasonal adjustment reanalysis being undertaken on data up to and including June 2007. Results to be published in July 2007
Introduction of ARIMA modelling techniques.

Annual seasonal adjustment reanalysis: The seasonally adjusted and trend series have been updated following the annual review of the seasonal adjustment process. This review provides an opportunity to confirm the extent to which movements are affected by seasonal or irregular influences. As a result, the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of a number of series have been revised.
Introduction of ARIMA modelling techniques: From this issue the ABS has implemented improved methods of producing seasonally adjusted estimates, focused on the application of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling techniques. See paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.
Original series: While revisions were made to both the seasonally adjusted and trend series, no revisions were made to the previously published original series.

Country of birth for New Zealand passport holders: From August 2007 a new method of imputation has been implemented. For further information see APPENDIX 2: DATA QUALITY ISSUES, Country of birth for New Zealand passport holders

Layout changes include:
• Restructuring of the KEY POINTS
• Restructuring the MAIN FEATURES to enable the FEATURE ARTICLE to be displayed separately.
• Moving the 'What if' analysis for short-term visitor arrivals and short-term resident departures from the TECHNICAL NOTE to the MAIN FEATURES
• Removing the TECHNICAL NOTE from the publication
• Moving the SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES commentary to APPENDIX 3

Due to reductions in the ABS work program, publication of the monthly Feature Article ceased until further notice.

Introduction of the Standard Australian Classification of Countries (SACC), Second Edition necessitating two label changes: United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man to UK, CIs & IOM and Serbia and Montenegro changed to include Kosovo, hence Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo.