WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES
EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 29 to 30 in the Explanatory Notes.
The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates:
1 The May 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is higher than the April 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.
2 The May 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is lower than the April 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.
The percentage change of 4.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 4.0%.
Number of Dwellings Financed
|  |
| | | What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
| |
| Trend as published
| (1) rises by 4% on this month
| (2) falls by 4% on this month
| |
| no. | % change | no. | % change | no. | % change | |
| |
| November 2003 | 57,753 | -2.4 | 57,747 | -2.4 | 57,805 | -2.3 | |
| December 2003 | 55,813 | -3.4 | 55,771 | -3.4 | 55,873 | -3.3 | |
| January 2004 | 53,801 | -3.6 | 53,767 | -3.6 | 53,818 | -3.7 | |
| February 2004 | 52,047 | -3.3 | 52,173 | -3.0 | 52,038 | -3.3 | |
| March 2004 | 50,598 | -2.8 | 51,072 | -2.1 | 50,626 | -2.7 | |
| April 2004 | 49,545 | -2.1 | 50,352 | -1.4 | 49,511 | -2.2 | |
| May 2004 | - | - | 50,014 | -0.7 | 48,745 | -1.5 | |
| |
| - nil or rounded to zero (including null cells) |
|
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