ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $12m in March 2013, a turnaround of $379m on the deficit in February 2013.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $307m in March 2013, a turnaround of $418m on the deficit in February 2013.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to March 2013 was a deficit of $946m, a fall of $3,861m (80%) on the deficit of $4,807m for the three months to December 2012. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary March quarter 2013 deficit was $306m, a fall of $4,952m (94%) on the revised December quarter 2012 deficit of $5,258m.

Revised quarterly estimates will be included in Balance of Payments – Goods and Services, Preliminary Quarterly Estimates (cat. no. 5302.0.55.004) and Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February and March 2013, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $241m (1%) to $25,632m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $148m (1%) to $25,746m. Non–rural goods rose $215m (1%) and rural goods rose $27m (1%). Net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $19m. Non–monetary gold fell $114m (9%). Services credits rose $21m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $20m (1%) to $3,017m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $27m (1%) to $3,074m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $58m (8%)
• meat and meat preparations, up $18m (3%).

Partly offsetting these rises was the other rural component, down $41m (3%).

NON–RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non–rural goods rose $263m (2%) to $17,019m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non–rural goods rose $215m (1%) to $17,122m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other mineral fuels, up $222m (11%)
• metal ores and minerals, up $123m (2%).

Partly offsetting these rises was the metals (excl. non–monetary gold) component, down $119m (11%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $19m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $19m.

NON–MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non–monetary gold fell $63m (5%) to $1,221m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non–monetary gold fell $114m (9%) to $1,169m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $19m to $4,355m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $21m to $4,363m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $23m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $20m (1%) to $2,804m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between February and March 2013, the trend estimate of goods and services debits fell $139m (1%) to $25,619m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $270m (1%) to $25,439m. Capital goods fell $574m (11%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $298m (3%), non–monetary gold rose $28m (8%) and consumption goods rose $6m. Services debits fell $27m (1%).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $53m (1%) to $5,957m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $6m to $5,932m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• non–industrial transport equipment, up $49m (3%)
• toys, books and leisure goods, up $11m (3%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $11m (1%)
• consumption goods n.e.s., up $11m (1%).

Partly offsetting these rises was the textiles, clothing and footwear component, down $77m (9%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods fell $137m (3%) to $5,114m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods fell $574m (11%) to $4,729m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• capital goods n.e.s., down $229m (18%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, down $144m (8%)
• ADP equipment, down $134m (18%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $7m to $8,963m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $298m (3%) to $9,146m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $195m (6%).

NON–MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non–monetary gold fell $29m (8%) to $320m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non–monetary gold rose $28m (8%) to $367m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits fell $18m to $5,266m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $27m (1%) to $5,265m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, down $40m (2%)
• transport, down $14m (1%), with freight transport down $16m (2%).

Partly offsetting these falls was the maintenance and repair services n.i.e. component, up $39m (108%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $38m (1%) to $2,696m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: International merchandise trade basis (a) – Original terms
		Change in
		Oct 2012	Nov 2012	Dec 2012	Jan 2013	Feb 2013	Mar 2013
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	9	–2	18	–16	–12	21
	Unit value	1	3	2	14	5	–
Fines
	Quantity	4	–3	23	–19	–4	17
	Unit value	2	7	3	14	8	–1
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	–11	20	8	–15	–5	–6
	Unit value	–15	–7	1	3	1	–
Semi–soft
	Quantity	–3	15	8	–15	–5	31
	Unit value	–8	–9	2	2	1	1
Thermal
	Quantity	10	–16	21	–9	–14	–6
	Unit value	1	–5	–3	–	1	–1
– nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between February and March 2013 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump rose $256m (22%), with quantities up 21%. Exports to China rose $253m (35%), with quantities up 36% and unit values down 1%.

Iron ore fines rose $585m (16%), with quantities up 17% and unit values down 1%. Exports to :

• China rose $351m (12%), with quantities up 12%
• Japan rose $139m (41%), with quantities up 46% and unit values down 4%.

Hard coking coal fell $58m (5%), with quantities down 6%. Exports to:

• Netherlands fell $30m (43%), with quantities down 39% and unit values down 6%
• Turkey fell $25m (100%), with quantities down 100%.

Semi–soft coal rose $165m (33%), with quantities up 31% and unit values up 1%. Exports to:

• Japan rose $69m (43%), with quantities up 36% and unit values up 6%
• China rose $63m (55%), with quantities up 64% and unit values down 5%.

Thermal coal fell $75m (6%), with quantities down 6% and unit values down 1%. Exports to Republic of Korea fell $74m (30%), with quantities down 33% and unit values up 4%.