5625.0 - Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia, Mar 2017 Quality Declaration 
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 01/06/2017   
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APPENDIX SAMPLING ERRORS


LEVEL ESTIMATES


INTRODUCTION

The estimates in this publication are based on a sample drawn from units in the surveyed population. Because the entire population is not surveyed, the published estimates are subject to sampling error. The most common way of quantifying such sampling error is to calculate the standard error for the published estimate or statistic.


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a level estimate.

Let us say that the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $24,949m and the calculated standard error in this case is $330m. The standard error is then used to interpret the level estimate of $24,949m.

For instance, the standard error of $330m indicates that:

  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real value falls within the range $24,619m to $25,279m ($24,949m ± $330m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real value falls within the range $24,289m to $25,609m ($24,949m ± $660m)

The real value in this case is the result we would obtain if we could enumerate the total population.

The following table shows the standard errors for March Quarter 2017 estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
40
49
70
Manufacturing
43
83
103
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
7
19
23
Construction
10
120
121
Wholesale Trade
15
62
65
Retail Trade
53
83
105
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
10
121
121
Information Media and Telecommunications
2
12
13
Financial and Insurance Services
11
67
69
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
123
71
129
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
33
85
90
Other Selected Services
77
105
128
Total
172
296
330
New South Wales
72
167
196
Victoria
60
122
143
Queensland
141
140
182
South Australia
28
94
103
Western Australia
32
90
97
Tasmania
17
18
25
Northern Territory
39
8
39
Australian Capital Territory
17
14
20
Australia
172
296
330



MOVEMENT ESTIMATES


EXAMPLE OF USE

The following example illustrates how to use the standard error to interpret a movement estimate.

Let us say one quarter the published level estimate for total capital expenditure is $30,776m and the next quarter the published level estimate is $24,949m.

In this example, the calculated standard error for the movement estimate is $469m. The standard error is then used to interpret the published movement estimate of $5,827m.

For instance, the standard error of $469m indicates that:
  • There are approximately two chances in three that the real movement over the two-quarter period falls within the range $5,358m to $6,296m ($5,827m ± $469m)
  • There are approximately 19 chances in 20 that the real movement falls within the range $4,889m to $6,765m ($5,827m ± $938m)

The following table shows the standard errors for March Quarter 2017 movement estimates.

Buildings and Structures
Equipment, Plant and Machinery
Total
$m
$m
$m
Mining
50
23
53
Manufacturing
40
95
106
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
8
17
15
Construction
17
251
253
Wholesale Trade
38
112
114
Retail Trade
83
95
136
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
12
150
152
Information Media and Telecommunications
69
39
103
Financial and Insurance Services
24
54
54
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services
173
120
203
Professional, Scientific and Technical Services
35
103
101
Other Selected Services
71
98
123
Total
245
400
469
New South Wales
71
229
238
Victoria
115
154
197
Queensland
146
184
241
South Australia
25
89
93
Western Australia
109
117
162
Tasmania
22
24
38
Northern Territory
39
15
43
Australian Capital Territory
9
23
26
Australia
245
400
469