MAIN FEATURES


SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during March 2010 (489,700 movements) increased 0.3% when compared with February 2010 (488,100 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 4.9% higher than in March 2009.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during March 2010. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for March 2010 and March 2009 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded by Korea (18.8%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded by UK, CIs & IOM (3.7%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - March 2010
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Feb 10 to Mar 10	Mar 09 to Mar 10
Source countries(a)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	95.3	93.8	87.2	0.2	2.6
UK, CIs & IOM(b)	54.0	54.0	76.9	-0.6	-3.7
Japan	31.7	33.1	43.8	0.6	1.8
United States of America	40.5	40.6	42.9	-1.3	7.0
China	37.0	40.2	35.3	3.8	13.9
Singapore	24.9	25.3	25.6	0.3	4.0
Korea	18.0	19.1	20.6	3.9	18.8
Malaysia	18.3	18.5	18.8	0.6	-0.1
Germany	13.6	13.3	16.8	-0.9	3.2
Hong Kong	13.4	14.0	15.1	0.3	-2.8
(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.
(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals is presented:

1 The April 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than March 2010.
2 The April 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than March 2010.

The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during March 2010 (569,200 movements) increased 0.9% when compared with February 2010 (564,200 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 21.7% higher than in March 2009. Note that trend breaks were introduced from April 2009.

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during March 2010. Due to the breaks in series, care should be excercised when comparing year on year percentage change in the following table (see footnote (a) in the table for more information).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - March 2010
	Trend	Seasonally Adjusted	Original	Feb 10 to Mar 10	Mar 09 to Mar 10
Destination countries(a)(b)	'000	'000	'000	Trend % change	Trend % change
New Zealand	87.4	89.1	102.2	-0.1	9.8
Indonesia	60.1	60.6	52.1	2.3	62.0
United States of America	51.6	53.7	49.1	1.9	40.3
Thailand	41.8	42.4	39.6	2.7	40.6
China	27.7	28.6	32.2	2.4	31.1
UK, CIs & IOM(c)	35.0	36.7	28.0	-0.6	3.2
Fiji	23.1	24.1	23.4	1.0	24.6
Malaysia	20.1	20.1	20.9	-0.1	19.6
Hong Kong	17.1	18.5	20.8	-1.5	8.7
Singapore	20.7	20.4	19.0	-0.4	18.4
(a) Break in trend series from April 2009 for all listed countries; additional break for Fiji from July 2009 - see Explanatory Notes, paragraph 25.
(b) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.
(c) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures is presented:

1 The April 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% higher than March 2010.
2 The April 2010 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 2.9% lower than March 2010.

The figure of 2.9% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates see paragraph 27 of the Explanatory Notes.


PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Care should be taken when using permanent and long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders. For example in the financial year 2006-07 there were over 10 million multiple movements accounting for 44% of all movements (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Permanent and long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer to Australian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0) and Information Paper: Statistical Implications of Improved Methods for Estimating Net Overseas Migration, Australia, 2007 (cat. no. 3107.0.55.005).

There were 12,890 permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during March 2010, a decrease of 5.6% compared with March 2009 (13,660 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (14.5%), followed by people born in China (12.3%), India (11.1%) and the UK, CIs & IOM (10.0%).

There were 7,180 Australian residents who departed permanently from Australia during March 2010, an increase of 8.8% compared with March 2009 (6,600 movements).


STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.