ANALYSIS OF RESULTS


GROWTH IN GSP VOLUME MEASURES

The volume measure of Gross state product (GSP) increased in all states in 2014-15. Northern Territory experienced the strongest growth (10.5%), while Western Australia (3.5%), Victoria (2.5%) and New South Wales (2.4%) all exceeded the national Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 2.3%.

GSP, Chain Volume measures
		Annual growth	Average annual compound growth rate (2005-06 to 2014-15)
2014-15
	New South Wales	2.4	2.0
	Victoria	2.5	2.1
	Queensland	0.5	3.1
	South Australia	1.6	2.0
	Western Australia	3.5	5.3
	Tasmania	1.6	1.2
	Northern Territory	10.5	4.1
	Australian Capital Territory	1.4	2.5
	Australia(a)	2.3	2.7
(a) Gross domestic product.

GSP PER CAPITA

For analytical purposes it is important to allow for the impact of population growth on movements in GSP. Queensland (QLD) was the only state to record negative GSP per capita growth (-0.8) while all other states had positive growth in GSP per capita with GSP growth rates exceeding their state population growth rates for 2014-15. The Northern Territory (NT) recorded the highest GSP per capita growth (10.1%) while New South Wales (NSW) and Western Australia (WA) had increases in GSP per capita for the sixth consecutive year.


REAL GROSS STATE INCOME

Volume estimates of GSP measure the volume of goods and services produced in each state. If the Terms of trade for a state change significantly (i.e. the prices for international exports and imports change at different rates) then GSP will not accurately reflect the change in real purchasing power of the income generated within a state. For this reason, Real gross state income (RGSI) captures the Terms of trade (for details on the calculation method see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 26 - 28).

The following graph shows annual percentage changes in RGSI per capita in 2014-15. NT (9.7%), Tasmania (TAS) (1.7%), Victoria (VIC) (0.7%), NSW (0.4%) and the Australian Capital Territory (ACT)(0.2%) reported positive RGSI per capita in 2014-15. The highest fall in RGSI per capita was reported by WA (-10.3%) while South Australia (SA) was flat (0.0%)


GROSS VALUE ADDED (GVA)

Volume growth in GVA was strongest in the NT (10.4%) and WA (3.5%) while QLD (0.5%) recorded the weakest growth.

Growth in NT was driven by Construction (61.7%), Public administration and safety (5.0%) and Rental hiring and real estate services (9.1%). Offsetting the growth in these industries were Manufacturing (-9.3%) and Mining (-1.6%).  Growth in WA was driven by Mining (9.9%) and Financial and insurance services (9.9%) with Construction (-5.0%) and Professional, scientific and technical services (-10.6%) detracting from growth.

The low growth in QLD was driven by falls in Construction (-12.5%) and Professional, scientific and technical services (-5.9%) while Mining (8.3%) and Financial and insurance services (5.8%) contributed to growth.

INDUSTRY GVA CONTRIBUTION TO GROSS STATE PRODUCT GROWTH
		NSW	Vic.	Qld	SA	WA	Tas.	NT	ACT	Aust.(a)
		% pts	% pts	% pts	% pts	% pts	% pts	% pts	% pts	% pts
2014-15
	Agriculture, forestry and fishing	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	-0.4	0.7	-0.2	-	-
	Mining	-	0.1	0.6	-0.1	3.0	-0.2	-0.2	-	0.6
	Manufacturing	-0.4	0.1	0.1	-0.3	0.2	-	-0.4	-	-0.1
	Electricity, gas, water and waste services	-0.1	0.1	0.2	-0.1	0.1	-0.1	-	0.1	-
	Construction	0.3	0.5	-1.5	-0.3	-0.6	0.8	8.7	0.3	-0.1
	Wholesale trade	0.2	-	-	0.1	0.1	-0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1
	Retail trade	0.2	0.2	-	0.2	-	0.2	-	-	0.1
	Accommodation and food services	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2	-	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2
	Transport, postal and warehousing	-0.1	-0.2	-	0.1	0.2	-	-	0.3	-
	Information media and telecommunications	0.4	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.3
	Financial and insurance services	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4
	Rental, hiring and real estate services	0.2	0.2	-	0.2	-0.1	-	0.4	0.1	0.1
	Professional, scientific and technical services	-0.1	-0.2	-0.3	-0.2	-0.5	0.1	0.1	-0.6	-0.3
	Administrative and support services	0.1	-	-0.1	-	0.1	-	0.1	-	-
	Public administration and safety	-	-	0.1	0.1	0.1	-0.5	0.5	0.1	-
	Education and training	0.2	0.1	0.1	-	-	-	-0.1	0.3	0.1
	Health care and social assistance	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.3
	Arts and recreation services	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.1	-
	Other services	-	-	0.1	0.1	0.1	-	-	0.1	0.1
	Ownership of dwellings	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2
	Taxes less subsidies on products	0.1	-	-	-	-0.1	-0.2	-0.1	-	-
	Statistical discrepancy (P)	0.1	0.1	-	0.3	0.2	-	0.5	-0.1	0.1
	Gross state product	2.4	2.5	0.5	1.6	3.5	1.6	10.5	1.4	2.3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Gross domestic product.

At a national level, the main industries contributing to the 2014-15 GVA growth of 2.3% were Mining (7.6%), Financial and insurance services (4.6%), Health Care and Social Assistance (4.5%) and Information media and telecommunications (9.4%). Professional, scientific and technical services (-4.0%), Manufacturing (-1.2%) and Construction (-0.7) were the main detractors from growth.

From a state perspective, there are differing industry impacts in GVA growth. In 2014-15, the largest contributor(s) to results in each state were:

• NSW - Financial and insurance services (0.5% pts);
• VIC - Construction (0.5% pts);
• QLD - Mining (0.6% pts);
• SA - Financial and insurance services and Health care and social assistance (0.3% pts each);
• WA - Mining (3.0% pts);
• TAS - Construction (0.8% pts);
• NT - Construction (8.7% pts);
• ACT - Construction, Transport, postal and warehousing and Education and training (0.3% pts each).

STATE FINAL DEMAND (SFD)

Volume SFD in 2014-15 recorded growth for five out of eight states. The strongest growth was in NT (8.3%), followed by NSW (3.2%) and VIC (2.5%). Growth in these states was driven by strong Private gross fixed capital formation.

WA (-3.5%), QLD (-3.0%) and TAS (-0.3%) recorded negative SFD growth. The falls in QLD and WA was driven by a fall in Private gross fixed capital formation while a fall in Public gross fixed capital formation contributed to the fall in TAS.

SA and the ACT (0.9% each) both had moderate growth in SFD with Private gross fixed capital formation contributing to growth.

NSW and VIC contributed the most to Australia's DFD growth with NSW adding 1.0 percentage points and VIC adding 0.6 percentage points.

STATE FINAL DEMAND, Chain volume measures
			2014-15
	2013-14	2014-15	SFD Growth	Contribution to DFD
			%	% pts
New South Wales	471 198	486 482	3.2	1.0
Victoria	361 571	370 504	2.5	0.6
Queensland	323 438	313 889	-3.0	-0.6
South Australia	99 822	100 738	0.9	0.1
Western Australia	222 042	214 230	-3.5	-0.5
Tasmania	28 305	28 207	-0.3	-
Northern Territory	29 506	31 941	8.3	0.2
Australian Capital Territory	58 280	58 832	0.9	-
Australia(a)	1 594 162	1 604 823	0.7	0.7
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Domestic final demand.

GOVERNMENT FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE (GFCE)

GFCE in volume terms rose for all states in 2014-15 except the ACT (-0.3%). WA recorded the strongest growth in volume terms with an increase of 2.7% while NSW (1.9%) and QLD (1.7%) also experienced strong growth.


HOUSEHOLD FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE (HFCE)

HFCE in volume terms rose in all states in 2014-15. The strongest growth was in NSW (3.4%), followed by QLD (2.4%), VIC (2.3%), WA (2.1%) and SA (2.1%).


PRIVATE GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION

Private gross fixed capital formation in volume terms rose in six states in 2014-15. NT had the strongest growth (16.1%) due to strength in Non-dwelling construction. TAS, VIC and NSW also showed positive growth with 6.8%, 6.4% and 4.5% respectively. The largest negative growth was recorded in QLD (-15.4%) and WA (-9.8%).


PUBLIC GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION

NT, ACT and NSW were the only states to record rises in Public gross fixed capital formation with 23.4%, 8.7%, and 0.6% respectively.


TOTAL FACTOR INCOME (TFI)

Total factor incomes grew in seven of the eight states with NT (12.8%) and VIC (4.2%) recording the strongest growth. WA (-7.2%) recorded a fall in Total factor income.

Australia's Compensation of employees (COE) rose by 2.4% with NT (4.5%) and SA (3.2%) recording the strongest growth. ACT was the state to record the weakest growth (-1.8%).

Gross operating surplus (GOS) plus gross mixed income (GMI) rose 1.0% for Australia. All states except WA experienced growth in GOS plus GMI with the strongest growth in NT (22.2%), VIC (6.7%) and ACT (6.7%). WA was the only state to experience negative growth with a fall of 13.8%.


GROSS HOUSEHOLD DISPOSABLE INCOME PER CAPITA

GSP per capita concentrates on the level of economic production and its growth. It does not provide a measure of incomes received by residents of a particular state, because a proportion of income generated in the production process may be transferred to other states or overseas (and conversely income may be received from other states or overseas). A measure that takes these flows into account is gross household disposable income per capita.

The highest Gross household disposable income per capita in 2014-15 was in ACT and the lowest was in TAS. Differences between the states reflect differences in the impact of a range of factors including the average level of compensation of employees received per employee, the proportion of the population in employment, the age distribution of the population and differences in the level of dwelling rent (including that imputed to owner occupiers). For example, a significant reason for the high level of gross household disposable income per capita in the ACT compared with other states is that the labour force participation rate is much higher there than in the rest of Australia. More detail on household income by state can be found in the Household Income Account and Per Capita tables.