ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in September 2008 was a surplus of $894m, an increase of $155m (21%) on the revised surplus in August 2008.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in September 2008 was a surplus of $1,460m, an increase of $220m (18%) on the revised surplus in August 2008.

The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to September 2008 was a surplus of $2,150m, a turnaround of $3,249m on the deficit of $1,099m for the three months to June 2008. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the September quarter 2008 surplus was $1,433m a turnaround of $2,698m on the revised June quarter 2008 deficit of $1,265m.

The Australian dollar depreciated by 7% against the United States dollar between August and September 2008 (on a period average basis).


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $519m (2%) between August and September to $25,226m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,851m (8%) to $26,507m. Non-rural goods rose $1,671m (10%) and other goods rose $39m (3%), while rural goods fell $12m (1%). Services credits rose $152m (3%).


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $21m (1%) to $2,236m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, export of rural goods fell $12m (1%) to $2,250m.

The component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, down $82m (16%).

Partly offsetting this were:

• meat and meat preparations, up $39m (7%)
• other rural, up $26m (3%).

In original terms, exports of rural goods fell $36m (2%) to $2,248m.

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $441m (3%) to $16,738m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,671m (10%) to $17,959m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $941m (19%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $626m (14%)
• other manufactures, up $60m (4%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the machinery component, down $42m (5%).

In original terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,306m (8%) to $17,998m. Non-agglomerated iron ore increased by $433m with volumes up 4% and prices up 10%. Metallurgical coal increased by $290m with volumes down 3% and prices up 11%.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, exports of other goods rose $68m (5%) to $1,502m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of other goods rose $39m (3%) to $1,512m with non-monetary gold, up $37m (3%).

In original terms, exports of other goods rose $40m (3%) to $1,521m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $32m (1%) to $4,750m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $152m (3%) to $4,786m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• travel services, up $117m (5%)
• transportation services, up $27m (3%)
• other services, up $8m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $140m (5%) to $3,024m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $364m (2%) between August and September to $24,332m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,631m (7%) to $25,047m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $1,132m (13%), capital goods rose $216m (5%), other goods rose $175m (16%) and consumption goods rose $27m (1%). Services debits rose $80m (2%).

Details of preliminary goods debits chain volume measures and price outcomes are not available for the release of this issue. These details will be available from the ABS web site on 13 November 2008 as Additional Information on the summary tab to this issue.


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $5m to $5,044m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $27m (1%) to $5,077m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $51m (7%)
• toys, books and leisure goods, up $39m (10%).

The only component to decrease was non-industrial transport equipment, down $109m (8%).

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $510m (10%) to $5,582m.

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $87m (2%) to $4,291m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $216m (5%) to $4,459m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was civil aircraft, up $130m (34%). Refer to Changes in this issue on page 4 for details of the changed treatment of confidential items which impacts on the civil aircraft component.

In original terms, imports of capital goods rose $347m (8%) to $4,558m.

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $185m (2%) to $9,166m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $1,132m (13%) to $9,586m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $547m (20%)
• other merchandise goods, up $217m due to military equipment
• iron and steel, up $123m (26%)
• processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $115m (6%).

In original terms, crude petroleum oils increased $81m (5%) with volumes up 6% and prices down 2%. Refined petroleum oils increased $409m (44%) with volumes up 54% and prices down 7%. Contributing to the increase in refined petroleum oils were:

• gasoline, up $154m
• fuel oils, up $132m.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $1,447m (17%) to $9,890m.

OTHER GOODS

In trend terms, imports of other goods rose $53m (5%) to $1,186m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of other goods rose $175m (16%) to $1,240m. The main component contributing to the rise was non-monetary gold, up $168m (20%).


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $44m (1%) to $4,645m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $80m (2%) to $4,685m.

All components contributed to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates with:

• transportation services, up $36m (2%)
• travel services, up $31m (2%)
• other services, up $14m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $32m (1%) to $2,297m.