ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,988m in December 2009, an increase of $198m on a revised deficit in November 2009.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $2,252m in December 2009, an increase of $524m on a revised deficit in November 2009.

The sum of the seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to December 2009 was a deficit of $5,974m, an increase of $1,976m on the deficit of $3,998m for the three months to September 2009. However, if the seasonal factors used in compiling quarterly Balance of Payments are applied, the December quarter 2009 deficit was $6,062m, an increase of $1,838m on the revised September quarter 2009 deficit of $4,224m.


EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between November 2009 and December 2009 the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $38m to $19,457m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $675m (4%) to $19,767m. Non-rural goods rose $571m (5%), rural goods rose $135m (7%) and non-monetary gold fell $46m (4%). Services credits rose $15m.


Exports of goods

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods fell $9m to $1,948m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, export of rural goods rose $135m (7%) to $2,093m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was other rural, up $137m (16%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $46m to $11,840m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $571m (5%) to $12,092m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke & briquettes, up $256m (10%)
• metals (excl. non-monetary gold), up $178m (25%)
• other mineral fuels, up $174m (13%)
• other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages), up $54m (6%).

Partly offsetting these increases was the metal ores and minerals component, down $76m (2%).

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $3m (10%) to $28m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $27m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $9m (1%) to $1,155m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold fell $46m (4%) to $1,079m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $9m to $4,485m .

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $15m to $4,476m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was other services, up $7m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $4m to $2,998m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between November 2009 and December 2009 the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $159m (1%) to $21,444m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $1,198m (6%) to $22,018m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $760m (11%), capital goods rose $246m (7%), non-monetary gold rose $224m (51%) and consumption goods fell $74m (1%). Services debits rose $42m (1%).

Preliminary analysis shows that goods imports volumes, in seasonally adjusted terms, increased about 7.1% during the December quarter 2009. The Chain Laspeyres price index fell about 4.4% and the implicit price deflator fell about 4.7%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the December quarter 2009 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (5302.0).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods fell $25m to $4,990m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $74m (1%) to $4,971m.

The main components contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $69m (12%)
• toys, books and leisure goods, down $29m (7%).

Partly offsetting these falls was the food and beverages, mainly for consumption component, up $40m (6%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $28m (1%) to $3,848m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $246m (7%) to $3,998m.

The main component contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates was capital goods n.e.s., up $336m (42%).

This rise was partly offset by the machinery and industrial equipment component, down $132m (10%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $81m (1%) to $7,381m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $760m (11%) to $7,787m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• fuels and lubricants, up $535m (26%). In original terms, crude petroleum increased $377m (33%) with prices up 2% and volumes up 31%. Refined petroleum increased $146m (17%) with prices up 2% and volumes up 15%.
• other parts for capital goods, up $127m (12%)
• parts for transport equipment, up $42m (7%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $41m (7%) to $648m.

In both original terms and seasonally adjusted terms, non-monetary gold debits rose $224m (51%) to $665m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits rose $35m (1%) to $4,578m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $42m (1%) to $4,597m.

The main components contributing to the rise in the seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• travel, up $45m (2%)
• transport, up $20m (2%).

Partly offsetting these increases were the maintenance and repair services n.i.e. component, down $12m (57%) and the other services component, down $11m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits rose $46m (2%) to $2,524m.