ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $247m in June 2012, a fall of $143m on the deficit in May 2012.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $9m in June 2012, a turnaround of $322m on the deficit in May 2012.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to June 2012 was a deficit of $284m, a fall of $2,427m (90%) on the deficit of $2,711 for the three months to March 2012. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the June quarter 2012 deficit was $305m, a fall of $2,268m (88%) on the revised March quarter 2012 deficit of $2,573m. The main goods components contributing to this quarter-on-quarter result were:

• Goods credits
  • metal ores and minerals, up $1,919m (10%)
  • non-monetary gold, up $1,061m (31%).
• Goods debits
  • machinery and industrial equipment, up $470m (9%)
  • processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $396m (7%)
  • industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $395m (17%).

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May and June 2012 the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $321m (1%) to $26,411m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $99m to $26,629m. Non-rural goods fell $527m (3%). Non-monetary gold rose $246m (17%), rural goods rose $171m (6%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (5%) to $22m. Services credits rose $9m.


Exports of goods


RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $60m (2%) to $2,939m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $171m (6%) to $3,060m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $106m (15%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $180m (1%) to $17,673m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $527m (3%) to $17,553m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• coal, coke and briquettes, down $250m (7%)
• metal ores and minerals, down $215m (3%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting remained steady at $20m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (5%) to $22m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $72m (5%) to $1,483m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $246m (17%) to $1,703m.


Exports of services


In trend terms, services credits rose $9m to $4,295m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $9m to $4,290m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $11m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $9m to $2,770m.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May and June 2012, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $179m (1%) to $26,659m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits fell $422m (2%) to $26,619m. Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $568m (6%) and consumption goods fell $124m (2%). Capital goods rose $338m (6%) and non-monetary gold rose $18m (4%). Services debits fell $86m (2%).

Preliminary analysis shows that, in seasonally adjusted terms, goods imports volumes rose 1.2% and the implicit price deflator rose 2.0% during the June quarter 2012. In original terms, the chain Laspeyres price index rose 2.3% and the implicit price deflator rose 1.4%. The final volume and price outcomes will be published in the June quarter 2012 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0).


Imports of goods


CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $7m to $5,668m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $124m (2%) to $5,609m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• toys, books and leisure goods, down $81m (21%)
• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $61m (8%).

Partly offsetting these falls was the non-industrial transport equipment component, up $31m (2%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $123m (2%) to $6,199m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $338m (6%) to $6,456m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $252m (68%)
• telecommunications equipment, up $103m (16%).

Partly offsetting these rises was the capital goods n.e.s. component, down $127m (8%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $40m to $9,313m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $568m (6%) to $9,081m.

The main component contributing to the fall in the seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, down $729m (20%). Following a rise of $546m (18%) between April and May 2012.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $13m (3%) to $485m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $18m (4%) to $529m.


Imports of services


In trend terms, services debits fell $3m to $4,994m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $86m (2%) to $4,944m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $102m (5%).

Partly offsetting this fall was the other services component, up $13m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $115m (4%) to $2,585m.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, Quantity and unit value analysis: Recorded Trade Basis(a) - Original terms
		Change in
		Jan 2012	Feb 2012	Mar 2012	Apr 2012	May 2012	Jun 2012
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-28	17	-1	23	-17	2
	Unit value	-3	-3	1	3	4	-4
Fines
	Quantity	-22	17	-8	10	8	-2
	Unit value	-1	-1	4	4	2	-2
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	1	-25	-3	7	8	9
	Unit value	-10	-6	-2	-	1	-3
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-5	1	10	7	-4	-4
	Unit value	-5	-12	5	-	-	-4
Thermal
	Quantity	-13	-15	5	16	-7	8
	Unit value	-2	-4	-	-3	2	-3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) Data in this table are on a revised merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

On a recorded trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between May and June 2012 large value movements were recorded for the following selected commodities:

Iron ore lump fell $19m (1%) with quantities up 2% and unit values down 4%.
Exports to:

• Japan fell $61m (16%), quantities down 13% and unit values down 4%
• Taiwan rose $37m (95%), with quantities up 109% and unit values down 6%.

Iron ore fines fell $192m (5%) with quantities down 2% and unit values down 2%.
Exports to:

• China fell $215m (7%), with quantities down 5% and unit values down 2%
• Japan rose $76m (15%), with quantities up 20% and unit values down 4%.

Hard coking coal rose $89m (6%) with quantities up 9% and unit values down 3%.
Exports to:

• Japan fell $91m (20%), with quantities down 19% and unit values down 1%
• United Kingdom rose $86m, driven by quantities
• Taiwan rose $83m (139%), driven by quantities
• Republic of Korea, rose $81m (101%), with quantities up 110% and unit values down 4%.

Semi-soft coal fell $61m (8%) with quantities down 4% and unit values down 4%.
Exports to Japan fell $69m (23%), with quantities down 21% and unit values down 2%.

Thermal coal rose $68m (5%) with quantities up 8% and unit values down 3%.
Exports to:

• China rose $141m (55%), with quantities up 53% and unit values up 1%
• Republic of Korea fell $110m (43%) driven by quantities.