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Feature Article - Work in the pipeline
The main purpose of the Building Activity Survey is to measure the value of building work done on a quarterly basis. The collection is a sample survey of approved building work. Another output available from the survey is a measure of the value of building work that has been approved, but as yet, has not been undertaken. This is often referred to as 'work in the pipeline'.
Work in the pipeline has two components. Firstly, there is an estimate of the amount of building work still to be done on projects that have already commenced. This is referred to as 'work yet to be done' and is defined as the difference between the anticipated completion value of the project and the estimated value of work already done up to the end of the reference period.
The second component is the building work that has been approved, but had not commenced by the end of the reference period. This is referred to as 'work approved but not yet commenced' and is defined as the anticipated completion value of the project, or if that is not known, the approval value. For residential building, 'work approved but not yet commenced' also provides a measure of the number of dwellings that have been approved, but have not commenced by the end of the reference period. Information on 'work in the pipeline' is available from the June quarter 2003.
1. WORK IN THE PIPELINE |
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 |  | New houses | New other residential building | New residential building | Alterations and additions to residential building | Total residential building | Non-residential building | Total building |  |
 |  | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | $m |  |
WORK YET TO BE DONE AT END OF QUARTER |  |
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2003 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
 | June | 4,807.2 | 6,670.8 | 11,478.0 | 1,221.5 | 12,699.5 | 8,209.2 | 20,908.7 |  |
 | September | 5,537.6 | 6,507.4 | 12,045.0 | 1,347.9 | 13,392.9 | 8,154.6 | 21,547.5 |  |
 | December | 5,958.3 | 6,949.6 | 12,907.9 | 1,355.0 | 14,262.9 | 8,462.1 | 22,725.0 |  |
2004 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
 | March | 6,178.2 | 6,839.6 | 13,017.7 | 1,374.9 | 14,392.7 | 9,052.1 | 23,444.8 |  |
 | June | 6,409.3 | 7,094.3 | 13,443.6 | 1,428.6 | 14,941.4 | 8,870.2 | 23,811.6 |  |
WORK APPROVED BUT NOT YET COMMENCED AT END OF QUARTER |  |
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2003 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
 | June | 2,229.1 | 1,084.1 | 3,313.2 | 807.9 | 4,121.1 | 1,774.9 | 5,896.0 |  |
 | September | 2,333.1 | 1,174.0 | 3,507.1 | 824.4 | 4,331.5 | 1,822.4 | 6,153.9 |  |
 | December | 2,498.2 | 1,370.5 | 3,868.7 | 903.4 | 4,772.1 | 1,678.8 | 6,450.9 |  |
2004 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
 | March | 2,425.1 | 1,523.7 | 3,948.7 | 879.6 | 4,828.3 | 1,575.6 | 6,403.9 |  |
 | June | 2,371.6 | 1,648.3 | 4,019.9 | 865.5 | 4,885.4 | 1,555.4 | 6,440.9 |  |
WORK IN THE PIPELINE AT END OF QUARTER |  |
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2003 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
 | June | 7,036.3 | 7,754.9 | 14,791.2 | 2,029.4 | 16,820.6 | 9,984.1 | 26,804.7 |  |
 | September | 7,870.7 | 7,681.4 | 15,552.1 | 2,172.3 | 17,724.4 | 9,977.0 | 27,701.4 |  |
 | December | 8,456.5 | 8,320.1 | 16,776.6 | 2,258.4 | 19,035.0 | 10,140.9 | 29,175.9 |  |
2004 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
 | March | 8,603.3 | 8,363.3 | 16,966.4 | 2,254.5 | 19,221.0 | 10,627.7 | 29,848.7 |  |
 | June | 8,780.9 | 8,742.6 | 17,463.5 | 2,294.1 | 19,826.8 | 10,425.6 | 30,252.5 |  |
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Table 1 provides estimates of the value of building work in the pipeline for Australia. When considering this information the following should be taken into account:
- values are in current prices;
- the anticipated completion value is often revised upwards in future quarters as a result of price increases and/or changes in specifications;
- some approvals may not proceed to commencement;
- the approval value is not always an accurate indication of the completion value; and
- the data are not seasonally adjusted.
The table shows that the value of new residential work in the pipeline continued to rise in the June quarter 2004 for both houses and other residential building. However, the value of approval of new houses that have not yet commenced has fallen over the last two quarters, whereas other residential building is still rising strongly. This latter point is also evident in table 2. Non-residential work in the pipeline fell in the June quarter, after rising in the previous two quarters.
2. Number of Dwellings Approved but Not Yet Commenced at end of quarter |
|  |
 |  | New houses | New other residential building | Conversions | Total dwellings |  |
|  |
2003 |  |  |  |  |  |
 | June | 13,185 | 7,294 | 541 | 21,020 |  |
 | September | 13,641 | 7,579 | 471 | 21,691 |  |
 | December | 14,146 | 8,978 | 554 | 23,679 |  |
2004 |  |  |  |  |  |
 | March | 13,409 | 9,399 | 572 | 23,380 |  |
 | June | 12,897 | 10,178 | 687 | 23,761 |  |
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The number of dwellings yet to be commenced rose sharply in the December quarter 2003 and has remained close to that level for the last two quarters. However, a fall in houses has been matched by a rise in other residential buildings.
3. Number of Dwellings Approved but Not Yet Commenced at end of quarter, by States |
|  |
 |  | NSW
| Vic.
| Qld
|  |
 |  | New houses | New other residential building | New houses | New other residential building | New houses | New other residential building |  |
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2003 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
 | June | 4,549 | 4,565 | 3,668 | 1,102 | 1,844 | 869 |  |
 | September | 4,735 | 4,364 | 3,394 | 1,226 | 1,615 | 1,174 |  |
 | December | 4,766 | 5,580 | 3,328 | 1,530 | 1,698 | 1,125 |  |
2004 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
 | March | 4,733 | 5,455 | 2,813 | 2,025 | 1,678 | 877 |  |
 | June | 4,745 | 5,811 | 2,280 | 2,418 | 1,471 | 795 |  |
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In New South Wales new houses and other residential buildings not yet commenced have remained relatively constant, in contrast to Victoria where there has been a sharp rise in other residential buildings and a fall in houses. In Queensland there have been falls in both types of dwellings.
4. Number of Dwellings Approved but not yet commenced at end of quarter, by States and territories |
|  |
 |  | SA
| WA
| Tas., NT & ACT
|  |
 |  | New houses | New other residential building | New houses | New other residential building | New houses | New other residential building |  |
|  |
2003 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
 | June | 1,149 | 362 | 1,654 | 382 | 321 | 14 |  |
 | September | 1,330 | 396 | 2,191 | 369 | 376 | 50 |  |
 | December | 1,370 | 475 | 2,582 | 174 | 403 | 95 |  |
2004 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
 | March | 1,605 | 709 | 2,252 | 298 | 328 | 35 |  |
 | June | 1,572 | 630 | 2,421 | 360 | 408 | 164 |  |
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Table 4 shows data for the remaining states. Separate data is not available for Tasmania, the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory.
Updated data on this topic will be included in future issues of this publication.
For more information about these statistics contact Jeff Allen on 08 8237 7302.
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