EXPERIMENTAL PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE


IN CURRENT PRICE TERMS


PROJECTED CAPITAL EXPENDITURE SERIES

The projected series below apply historical realisation ratios to contemporary expectations to convert these to quarterly figures. Trend estimates of resultant quarterly time series of actual and expected expenditure are produced.

The following graphs, with accompanying commentary, show the projected capital expenditure series based on September quarter 2008 data, which includes expected expenditure up to and including the June quarter 2009. Please see paragraphs 29 to 33 of the Explanatory Notes for further details about the methodology and cautionary notes for these series.


TOTAL CAPITAL EXPENDITURE

Continued strength in the trend series for total capital expenditure and stable 2008-09 expectations reported in the quarter project the total capital expenditure series to approach the $30,000m expenditure per quarter level by the end of the 2008-09 financial year.

BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES

The projections for buildings and structures remain strong for the coming nine months, as expenditure expectations increased, albeit slightly in the September quarter. The buildings and structures projections are the main driver behind the strength displayed in the projection for total Capex. The projections anticipate an upturn in the pace of growth in the building series in the year ahead.

EQUIPMENT, PLANT AND MACHINERY

The progress of actual trend equipment, plant and machinery in the September quarter continued to follow modelled projections. Projections indicate increasing strength before a possible tapering in the series towards the end of the financial year.

MINING

The Mining industry has experienced high growth since the start of 2005. Expectations data remained strong in the September quarter and the modelled projections suggest that this series will exceed the $10,000m level by the end of the financial year.

MANUFACTURING

The Manufacturing trend series fell slightly in the September quarter. The model is projecting a moderate rate of growth to a point marginally above current actual trend by June quarter 2009.

OTHER SELECTED INDUSTRIES

The Other selected industries series grew marginally in actual trend terms in the September quarter. Despite only slight upwards movement since June 2007, expectations data were steady in the September quarter and remain at high levels. The projections moving forward hence remain extremely strong, though the actual trend is diverging from the projected trend.