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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2014 March 149 466 -0.6 149 466 -0.6 149 466 -0.6 June 149 677 0.1 149 574 0.1 149 743 0.2 September 150 288 0.4 150 308 0.5 150 251 0.3 December 150 903 0.4 150 897 0.4 150 083 -0.1

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.2% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.2% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2014 March 68 202 -0.7 68 202 -0.7 68 202 -0.7 June 66 410 -2.6 66 191 -2.9 66 524 -2.5 September 64 826 -2.4 64 921 -1.9 64 805 -2.6 December 63 670 -1.8 65 113 0.3 63 509 -2.0