ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,166m in June 2017, a decrease of $409m on the surplus in May 2017.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $856m in June 2017, a decrease of $1,168m on the surplus in May 2017.

The sum of seasonally adjusted balances for the three months to June 2017 was a surplus of $2,804m, a decrease of $4,653m on the surplus of $7,457m for the three months to March 2017. However, if seasonal factors used in compiling the quarterly balance of payments are applied, the preliminary June quarter 2017 surplus was $3,278m, a decrease of $4,067m on the March quarter 2017 surplus of $7,345m.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Apr 2017	May 2017	Jun 2017	Jun 2017	Jun 2017
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				-76	2 024	856	-1 168	-58
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			30 058	32 218	31 779	-439	-1
		Total goods		23 756	25 953	25 644	-309	-1
			Rural goods(b)	4 022	4 107	4 133	26	1
			Non-rural goods(b)	18 234	20 304	19 564	-740	-4
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	27	27	26	-1	-4
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 473	1 515	1 921	406	27
		Total services		6 302	6 264	6 135	-129	-2
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-30 133	-30 193	-30 923	730	2
		Total goods		-23 682	-23 777	-24 536	759	3
			Consumption goods	-8 277	-8 368	-8 562	194	2
			Capital goods	-5 899	-5 571	-6 304	733	13
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 090	-9 525	-9 119	-406	-4
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-415	-313	-551	238	76
		Total services		-6 452	-6 417	-6 387	-30	-
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				2 004	1 575	1 166	-409	-26
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			32 268	32 083	31 866	-217	-1
		Total goods		26 061	25 860	25 637	-223	-1
			Rural goods(b)	4 075	4 089	4 089	-	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	20 372	20 084	19 802	-282	-1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	26	25	24	-1	-4
			Non-monetary gold	1 589	1 662	1 722	60	4
		Total services		6 207	6 223	6 230	7	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-30 264	-30 508	-30 701	193	1
		Total goods		-23 907	-24 117	-24 285	168	1
			Consumption goods	-8 334	-8 400	-8 450	50	1
			Capital goods	-5 915	-6 015	-6 108	93	2
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-9 196	-9 250	-9 282	32	-
			Non-monetary gold	-463	-452	-445	-7	-2
		Total services		-6 357	-6 391	-6 415	24	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May and June 2017, the trend estimate of goods and services credits fell $217m (1%) to $31,866m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits fell $439m (1%) to $31,779m. Non-rural goods fell $740m (4%) and net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (4%). Non-monetary gold rose $406m (27%) and rural goods rose $26m (1%). Services credits fell $129m (2%).


Exports of goods

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Apr 2017	May 2017	Jun 2017	Jun 2017	Jun 2017
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				23 756	25 953	25 644	-309	-1
	General merchandise			22 256	24 411	23 697	-714	-3
		Rural goods		4 022	4 107	4 133	26	1
			Meat and meat preparations	932	984	1 024	40	4
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	782	901	919	18	2
			Wool and sheepskins	385	295	272	-23	-8
			Other rural(a)	1 923	1 927	1 918	-9	-
		Non-rural goods		18 234	20 304	19 564	-740	-4
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	7 835	6 955	6 485	-470	-7
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	3 162	5 282	4 942	-340	-6
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	2 375	3 185	3 156	-29	-1
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	947	990	1 028	38	4
			Machinery	811	837	867	30	4
			Transport equipment	423	398	454	56	14
			Other manufactures	1 594	1 660	1 644	-16	-1
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	959	860	860	-	-
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	129	138	129	-9	-7
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			27	27	26	-1	-4
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 473	1 515	1 921	406	27
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods remained steady at $4,089m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $26m (1%) to $4,133m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was meat and meat preparations, up $40m (4%).

Partly offsetting this rise was wool and sheepskins, down $23m (8%).


NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $282m (1%) to $19,802m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods fell $740m (4%) to $19,564m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, down $470m (7%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, down $340m (6%).

Partly offsetting these falls was transport equipment, up $56m (14%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.


NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (4%) to $24m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (4%) to $26m.


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $60m (4%) to $1,722m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $406m (27%) to $1,921m.


Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Apr 2017	May 2017	Jun 2017	Jun 2017	Jun 2017
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			6 302	6 264	6 135	-129	-2
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		2	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		6	6	5	-1	-17
	Transport		624	624	615	-9	-1
		Passenger(b)	227	226	215	-11	-5
		Freight(c)	24	24	25	1	4
		Other	245	246	247	1	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	128	128	129	1	1
	Travel		4 017	3 973	3 864	-109	-3
	Other services		1 653	1 661	1 651	-10	-1
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		4 244	4 200	4 078	-122	-3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $7m to $6,230m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits fell $129m (2%) to $6,135m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, down $109m (3%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits fell $122m (3%) to $4,078m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 19% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between May and June 2017, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $193m (1%) to $30,701m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $730m (2%) to $30,923m. Capital goods rose $733m (13%), non-monetary gold rose $238m (76%) and consumption goods rose $194m (2%). Intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $406m (4%). Services debits fell $30m.


Imports of goods

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Apr 2017	May 2017	Jun 2017	Jun 2017	Jun 2017
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-23 682	-23 777	-24 536	759	3
	General merchandise			-23 267	-23 464	-23 985	521	2
		Consumption goods		-8 277	-8 368	-8 562	194	2
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 220	-1 089	-1 262	173	16
			Household electrical items	-548	-546	-534	-12	-2
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 862	-2 225	-2 079	-146	-7
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 514	-1 511	-1 494	-17	-1
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-573	-550	-573	23	4
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 560	-2 446	-2 620	174	7
		Capital goods		-5 899	-5 571	-6 304	733	13
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-1 692	-1 753	-1 731	-22	-1
			ADP equipment	-780	-849	-883	34	4
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 044	-590	-1 052	462	78
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-248	-98	-500	402	410
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-874	-787	-973	186	24
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-1 261	-1 494	-1 164	-330	-22
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-9 090	-9 525	-9 119	-406	-4
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-144	-155	-150	-5	-3
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-229	-207	-198	-9	-4
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-2 187	-2 543	-2 080	-463	-18
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 042	-1 056	-1 085	29	3
			Parts for ADP equipment	-56	-66	-52	-14	-21
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 244	-1 303	-1 327	24	2
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-399	-374	-381	7	2
			Paper and paperboard	-197	-203	-202	-1	-
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-125	-127	-129	2	2
			Iron and steel	-238	-257	-247	-10	-4
			Plastics	-354	-357	-354	-3	-1
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-2 741	-2 726	-2 767	41	2
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-29	-46	-45	-1	-2
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-104	-104	-103	-1	-1
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-415	-313	-551	238	76
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $50m (1%) to $8,450m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods rose $194m (2%) to $8,562m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• consumption goods n.e.s., up $174m (7%)
• food and beverages, mainly for consumption, up $173m (16%).

Partly offsetting these rises was non-industrial transport equipment, down $146m (7%).


CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $93m (2%) to $6,108m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $733m (13%) to $6,304m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• telecommunications equipment, up $462m (78%)
• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $402m
• industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $186m (24%).

Partly offsetting these rises was capital goods n.e.s., down $330m (22%).


INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $32m to $9,282m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods fell $406m (4%) to $9,119m.

The main component contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, down $463m (18%).

Partly offsetting this fall was processed industrial supplies n.e.s., up $41m (2%).


NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $7m (2%) to $445m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $238m (76%) to $551m.


Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Apr 2017	May 2017	Jun 2017	Jun 2017	Jun 2017
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-6 452	-6 417	-6 387	-30	-
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-72	-66	-42	-24	-36
	Transport		-1 424	-1 406	-1 411	5	-
		Passenger(c)	-620	-624	-615	-9	-1
		Freight	-732	-710	-724	14	2
		Other(b)	-66	-66	-67	1	2
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-6	-6	-5	-1	-17
	Travel		-2 892	-2 863	-2 844	-19	-1
	Other services		-2 064	-2 081	-2 090	9	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-3 512	-3 488	-3 459	-29	-1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits rose $24m to $6,415m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits fell $30m to $6,387m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., down $24m (36%)
• travel, down $19m (1%).

Partly offsetting these falls was other services, up $9m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $29m (1%) to $3,459m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 21% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in
		Jan 2017	Feb 2017	Mar 2017	Apr 2017	May 2017	Jun 2017
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	-22	15	2	5	2	-2
	Unit value	-1	-	1	-9	-10	-3
Fines
	Quantity	-14	-8	16	-	5	-8
	Unit value	1	4	3	-13	-13	-10
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-15	-10	9	-63	177	1
	Unit value	-8	-9	p-6	p-1	p-3	p-4
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-37	19	-5	-32	62	5
	Unit value	-	2	-4	p7	p-1	p-11
Thermal
	Quantity	-16	-8	13	-6	1	1
	Unit value	-5	-4	2	-	p3	p-4
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	3	-10	6	-8	23	6
	Unit value	5	-2	-2	7	-3	6
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to DIBP. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to DIBP. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to DIBP and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between May and June 2017 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, down $67m (5%), with quantities down 2% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $103m (11%), with quantities down 6% and unit values down 5%
• Japan rose $25m (11%), with quantities up 14% and unit values down 2%
• the Republic of Korea rose $16m (20%), with quantities up 6% and unit values up 13%.

Iron ore fines, down $675m (18%), with quantities down 8% and unit values down 10%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $576m (18%), with quantities down 8% and unit values down 11%
• Japan fell $79m (25%), with quantities down 21% and unit values down 5%.

Hard coking coal, down $61m (3%), with quantities up 1% and unit values down 4%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $164m (34%), with quantities down 31% and unit values down 5%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) fell $35m (7%), with quantities down 8% and unit values up 2%
• India rose $180m (37%), with quantities up 48% and unit values down 7%.

Semi-soft coal, down $66m (7%), with quantities up 5% and unit values down 11%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $104m (25%), with quantities down 19% and unit values down 7%
• the Republic of Korea fell $96m (40%), with quantities down 27% and unit values down 19%
• India rose $113m, with unit values up 5%.

Thermal coal, down $46m (3%), with quantities up 1% and unit values down 4%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $180m (21%), with quantities down 18% and unit values down 3%
• the Republic of Korea rose $53m (25%), with quantities up 16% and unit values up 8%
• India rose $28m (87%), with quantities up 77% and unit values up 6%
• Chile rose $22m, with unit values up 8%
• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $20m (6%), with quantities up 18% and unit values down 10%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $265m (12%), with quantities up 6% and unit values up 6%.