5609.0 - Housing Finance, Australia, Oct 2004  
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 08/12/2004   
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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Readers should exercise care when interpreting the trend estimates of recent months because they will be revised when next month’s seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information, see paragraphs 28 to 29 in the Explanatory Notes.


The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates:


1 The November 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is higher than the October 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.


2 The November 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate of number of dwellings financed is lower than the October 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.0%.


The percentage change of 4.0% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change of the seasonally adjusted series, based on the last 10 years of data, has been 4.0%.


Number of Dwellings Financed

Graph: What if?

What if next month's seasonally adjusted estimate:
Trend as published
(1) rises by 4% on this month
(2) falls by 4% on this month
no.
% change
no.
% change
no.
% change
May 2004
49,258
-0.4
49,193
-0.5
49,251
-0.4
June 2004
49,304
0.1
49,211
-
49,311
0.1
July 2004
49,357
0.1
49,324
0.2
49,374
0.1
August 2004
49,391
0.1
49,465
0.3
49,332
-0.1
September 2004
49,429
0.1
49,659
0.4
49,220
-0.2
October 2004
49,464
0.1
49,875
0.4
49,048
-0.3
November 2004
-
-
50,135
0.5
48,887
-0.3
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)