ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS


BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $6,089m in May 2019, an increase of $169m on the surplus in April 2019.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $5,745m in May 2019, an increase of $925m on the surplus in April 2019.

GOODS AND SERVICES SUMMARY(a), Seasonally Adjusted and Trend
							Change in:
				Mar 2019	Apr 2019	May 2019	May 2019	May 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Seasonally Adjusted
BALANCE on goods and services				4 990	4 820	5 745	925	19
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			39 524	40 143	41 585	1 442	4
		Total goods		31 297	31 905	33 288	1 383	4
			Rural goods(b)	4 079	4 030	4 076	46	1
			Non-rural goods(b)	25 813	26 191	27 507	1 316	5
			Net exports of goods under merchanting(c)	11	19	18	-1	-5
			Non-monetary gold(c)	1 393	1 665	1 687	22	1
		Total services		8 227	8 239	8 297	58	1
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-34 534	-35 324	-35 839	515	1
		Total goods		-26 209	-27 088	-27 496	408	2
			Consumption goods	-8 602	-8 941	-8 868	-73	-1
			Capital goods	-6 276	-6 613	-6 961	348	5
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 881	-11 123	-11 189	66	1
			Non-monetary gold(c)	-450	-410	-478	68	17
		Total services		-8 325	-8 236	-8 343	107	1
Trend(d)
BALANCE on goods and services				5 611	5 920	6 089	169	3
CREDITS
	Total goods and services			40 629	41 059	41 398	339	1
		Total goods		32 404	32 792	33 098	306	1
			Rural goods(b)	4 067	4 085	4 089	4	-
			Non-rural goods(b)	26 613	26 975	27 302	327	1
			Net exports of goods under merchanting	14	14	15	1	7
			Non-monetary gold	1 710	1 718	1 693	-25	-1
		Total services		8 225	8 267	8 300	33	-
DEBITS
	Total goods and services			-35 018	-35 139	-35 310	171	-
		Total goods		-26 687	-26 831	-27 022	191	1
			Consumption goods	-8 782	-8 826	-8 864	38	-
			Capital goods	-6 558	-6 614	-6 686	72	1
			Intermediate and other merchandise goods	-10 896	-10 939	-11 023	84	1
			Non-monetary gold	-451	-452	-450	-2	-
		Total services		-8 332	-8 308	-8 287	-21	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Non-rural goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) Caution should be used when interpreting recent trend estimates as they may be affected by unusual economic factors. For more details on trend estimates, see paragraph 19 of the Explanatory Notes.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between April and May 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $339m (1%) to $41,398m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $1,442m (4%) to $41,585m. Non-rural goods rose $1,316m (5%), rural goods rose $46m (1%) and non-monetary gold rose $22m (1%). Net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (5%). Services credits rose $58m (1%).


Exports of goods


GOODS CREDITS

GOODS CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Mar 2019	Apr 2019	May 2019	May 2019	May 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods credits				31 297	31 905	33 288	1 383	4
	General merchandise			29 893	30 221	31 583	1 362	5
		Rural goods		4 079	4 030	4 076	46	1
			Meat and meat preparations	1 324	1 368	1 254	-114	-8
			Cereal grains and cereal preparations	500	488	572	84	17
			Wool and sheepskins	365	381	350	-31	-8
			Other rural(a)	1 890	1 793	1 899	106	6
		Non-rural goods		25 813	26 191	27 507	1 316	5
			Metal ores and minerals(b)	8 878	9 732	11 036	1 304	13
			Coal, coke and briquettes(c)	6 111	5 544	5 719	175	3
			Other mineral fuels(b)(d)	5 253	5 152	5 161	9	-
			Metals (excl. non-monetary gold)	1 172	1 269	1 095	-174	-14
			Machinery	992	991	1 007	16	2
			Transport equipment	423	395	395	-	-
			Other manufactures	2 028	2 068	1 993	-75	-4
			Other non-rural (incl. sugar and beverages)(a)	804	880	944	64	7
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(d)	152	158	158	-	-
	Net exports of goods under merchanting(e)			11	19	18	-1	-5
	Non-monetary gold(e)			1 393	1 665	1 687	22	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For all time periods, estimates for sugar, sugar preparations and honey are included in Other non-rural.
(b) From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(c) From July 1971 to June 2005, only a length-of-month adjustment has been applied to this component. From July 2005, this component is seasonally adjusted using seasonal factors derived from a monthly volume series.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) This component is not seasonally adjusted.

RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of rural goods rose $4m to $4,089m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of rural goods rose $46m (1%) to $4,076m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• other rural, up $106m (6%)
• cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $84m (17%).

Partly offsetting these rises was meat and meat preparations, down $114m (8%).

NON-RURAL GOODS

In trend terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $327m (1%) to $27,302m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural goods rose $1,316m (5%) to $27,507m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• metal ores and minerals, up $1,304m (13%)
• coal, coke and briquettes, up $175m (3%).

Partly offsetting these rises was metals (excl. non-monetary gold), down $174m (14%).

For price and volume details, see the Selected commodities section.

NET EXPORTS OF GOODS UNDER MERCHANTING

In trend terms, net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (7%) to $15m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, net exports of goods under merchanting fell $1m (5%) to $18m.

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, exports of non-monetary gold fell $25m (1%) to $1,693m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-monetary gold rose $22m (1%) to $1,687m.


Exports of services


SERVICES CREDITS

SERVICES CREDITS, Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Mar 2019	Apr 2019	May 2019	May 2019	May 2019
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services credits			8 227	8 239	8 297	58	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(a)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(a)		3	3	3	-	-
	Transport		660	662	664	2	-
		Passenger(b)	260	256	259	3	1
		Freight(c)	21	22	22	-	-
		Other	244	243	243	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)	135	142	141	-1	-1
	Travel		5 319	5 383	5 439	56	1
	Other services		2 246	2 191	2 191	-	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services credits(e)		5 579	5 639	5 697	58	1
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(b) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(c) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services credits rose $33m to $8,300m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services credits rose $58m (1%) to $8,297m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was travel, up $56m (1%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services credits rose $58m (1%) to $5,697m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services credits contributed 20% of total goods and services exported.


IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

Between April and May 2019, the trend estimate of goods and services debits rose $171m to $35,310m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services debits rose $515m (1%) to $35,839m. Capital goods rose $348m (5%), non-monetary gold rose $68m (17%) and intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $66m (1%). Consumption goods fell $73m (1%). Services debits rose $107m (1%).


Imports of goods


GOODS DEBITS

GOODS DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
							Change in:
				Mar 2019	Apr 2019	May 2019	May 2019	May 2019
				$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total goods debits				-26 209	-27 088	-27 496	408	2
	General merchandise			-25 759	-26 678	-27 018	340	1
		Consumption goods		-8 602	-8 941	-8 868	-73	-1
			Food and beverages, mainly for consumption	-1 355	-1 393	-1 425	32	2
			Household electrical items	-537	-531	-506	-25	-5
			Non-industrial transport equipment	-1 932	-2 046	-1 987	-59	-3
			Textiles, clothing and footwear	-1 448	-1 613	-1 503	-110	-7
			Toys, books and leisure goods	-515	-542	-535	-7	-1
			Consumption goods n.e.s.	-2 815	-2 816	-2 912	96	3
		Capital goods		-6 276	-6 613	-6 961	348	5
			Machinery and industrial equipment	-2 089	-2 092	-2 200	108	5
			ADP equipment	-915	-942	-954	12	1
			Telecommunications equipment	-1 129	-1 077	-1 141	64	6
			Civil aircraft and confidentialised items(b)(c)	-354	-401	-670	269	67
			Industrial transport equipment n.e.s.	-1 016	-1 210	-1 257	47	4
			Capital goods n.e.s.(d)	-773	-892	-739	-153	-17
		Intermediate and other merchandise goods		-10 881	-11 123	-11 189	66	1
			Food and beverages, mainly for industry	-168	-173	-162	-11	-6
			Primary industrial supplies n.e.s.(d)	-174	-123	-105	-18	-15
			Fuels and lubricants(c)	-3 345	-3 290	-3 562	272	8
			Parts for transport equipment	-1 102	-1 212	-1 164	-48	-4
			Parts for ADP equipment	-55	-53	-51	-2	-4
			Other parts for capital goods	-1 601	-1 739	-1 626	-113	-6
			Organic and inorganic chemicals	-272	-264	-284	20	8
			Paper and paperboard	-202	-206	-204	-2	-1
			Textile yarn and fabrics	-121	-127	-122	-5	-4
			Iron and steel	-275	-265	-264	-1	-
			Plastics	-373	-371	-372	1	-
			Processed industrial supplies n.e.s.	-3 060	-3 173	-3 132	-41	-1
			Other merchandise goods(b)(e)	-27	-24	-39	15	63
			Goods procured in ports by carriers(c)	-106	-104	-104	-	-
	Non-monetary gold(c)			-450	-410	-478	68	17
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) From July 2008, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Civil aircraft and confidentialised items. For earlier periods, commodities subject to a 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' restriction are included in Other merchandise goods.
(c) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(d) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(e) From July 1981, this component is not seasonally adjusted.

CONSUMPTION GOODS

In trend terms, imports of consumption goods rose $38m to $8,864m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of consumption goods fell $73m (1%) to $8,868m.

The main components contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• textiles, clothing and footwear, down $110m (7%)
• non-industrial transport equipment, down $59m (3%).

Partly offsetting these falls was consumption goods n.e.s., up $96m (3%).

CAPITAL GOODS

In trend terms, imports of capital goods rose $72m (1%) to $6,686m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of capital goods rose $348m (5%) to $6,961m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• civil aircraft and confidentialised items, up $269m (67%)
• machinery and industrial equipment, up $108m (5%)
• telecommunications equipment, up $64m (6%).

Partly offsetting these rises was capital goods n.e.s., down $153m (17%).

INTERMEDIATE AND OTHER MERCHANDISE GOODS

In trend terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $84m (1%) to $11,023m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, imports of intermediate and other merchandise goods rose $66m (1%) to $11,189m.

The main component contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates was fuels and lubricants, up $272m (8%).

Partly offsetting this rise were:

• other parts for capital goods, down $113m (6%)
• parts for transport equipment, down $48m (4%).

NON-MONETARY GOLD

In trend terms, imports of non-monetary gold fell $2m to $450m.

In original and seasonally adjusted terms, imports of non-monetary gold rose $68m (17%) to $478m.


Imports of services


SERVICES DEBITS

SERVICES DEBITS(a), Seasonally Adjusted
						Change in:
			Mar 2019	Apr 2019	May 2019	May 2019	May 2019
			$m	$m	$m	$m	%
Total services debits			-8 325	-8 236	-8 343	107	1
	Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others(b)		-	-	-	-	-
	Maintenance and repair services n.i.e.(b)		-116	-75	-123	48	64
	Transport		-1 545	-1 545	-1 578	33	2
		Passenger(c)	-626	-651	-623	-28	-4
		Freight	-833	-807	-868	61	8
		Other(b)	-80	-79	-79	-	-
		Postal and courier services(d)(e)	-6	-8	-8	-	-
	Travel		-4 195	-4 136	-4 152	16	-
	Other services		-2 469	-2 480	-2 490	10	-
Memorandum item
	Tourism related services debits(f)		-4 821	-4 787	-4 775	-12	-
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
(a) For sign conventions, see paragraph 15 of the Explanatory Notes.
(b) This component is not seasonally adjusted.
(c) Passenger services includes agency fees and commissions for air transport.
(d) Postal and courier services includes indirect commissions for sea transport.
(e) In using these seasonally adjusted series, care should be exercised because of the difficulties associated with reliably estimating the seasonal pattern.
(f) For a more detailed explanation of tourism related services, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

In trend terms, services debits fell $21m to $8,287m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, services debits rose $107m (1%) to $8,343m.

The main components contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted estimates were:

• maintenance and repair services n.i.e., up $48m (64%)
• transport, up $33m (2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, tourism related services debits fell $12m to $4,775m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, total services debits contributed 23% of total goods and services imported.


Selected commodities

Selected commodities, quantity and unit value analysis - International merchandise trade basis(a): Original terms
		Change in:
		Dec 2018	Jan 2019	Feb 2019	Mar 2019	Apr 2019	May 2019
		%	%	%	%	%	%
Iron ore
Lump
	Quantity	18	-18	4	-15	17	19
	Unit value	-2	11	11	1	6	2
Fines
	Quantity	16	-16	4	-14	20	11
	Unit value	-3	9	15	8	5	4
Coal
Hard coking
	Quantity	-5	5	-28	55	-25	25
	Unit value	1	p-1	-4	3	p-	p-3
Semi-soft
	Quantity	-	-5	-19	17	-2	2
	Unit value	1	-	1	-3	1	p2
Thermal
	Quantity	32	-8	-18	8	7	-3
	Unit value	-2	3	-4	-2	p-8	2
Gas
LNG
	Quantity	1	-5	-9	8	6	-
	Unit value	1	4	-1	-4	-15	2
- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)
p preliminary figure or series subject to revision
(a) Data in this table are on a revised international merchandise trade basis and exclude value adjustments applied to balance of payments series.

International merchandise trade exports data presented in the above table are based on information reported by exporters to the Department of Home Affairs (Home Affairs). For commodities such as iron ore and coal, newly negotiated contract prices are not fully reflected in data first reported to Home Affairs. Final quantity and/or unit price information is updated progressively in international merchandise trade data as exporters revise the information provided to Home Affairs. When additional information for these commodities is available, the ABS may adjust the data to reflect actual transaction values.

Unit values in this publication are presented in Australian dollar terms. Movements in the unit values for some commodities incorporate movements in the United States dollar prices reported to Home Affairs and movements in the Australian dollar to United States dollar exchange rate.

On an international merchandise trade basis, in original terms (noting the footnote in the above table), between April and May 2019 the largest movements recorded for the following selected commodities were:

Iron ore lump, up $455m (21%), with quantities up 19% and unit values up 2%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $284m (18%), with quantities up 14% and unit values up 4%
• Japan rose $169m (77%), with quantities up 72% and unit values up 3%.

Iron ore fines, up $822m (15%), with quantities up 11% and unit values up 4%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $730m (16%), with quantities up 12% and unit values up 3%
• Japan rose $53m (20%), with quantities up 11% and unit values up 8%
• Singapore rose $51m, following no exports in April 2019.

Hard coking coal, up $477m (21%), with quantities up 25% and unit values down 3%. Exports to:

• China (excluding SARs and Taiwan) rose $262m (58%), with quantities up 61% and unit values down 1%
• Belgium rose $133m, following no exports in April 2019
• India rose $120m (16%), with quantities up 22% and unit values down 5%
• Netherlands rose $117m, following no exports in April 2019.

Semi-soft coal, up $35m (4%), with quantities up 2% and unit values up 2%. Exports to:

• the Republic of Korea rose $35m (30%), with quantities up 40% and unit values down 7%
• Japan rose $30m (10%), with quantities up 8% and unit values up 2%
• Taiwan fell $18m (18%), with quantities down 17% and unit values down 2%.

Thermal coal, down $29m (1%), with quantities down 3% and unit values up 2%. Exports to:

• Japan fell $93m (12%), with quantities down 13% and unit values up 2%
• Malaysia fell $24m (33%), with quantities down 36% and unit values up 5%
• the Republic of Korea rose $82m (46%), with quantities up 43% and unit values up 2%.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG), up $61m (2%), with unit values up 2%.


COUNTRY BREAKDOWN

The following charts show Australia's major trading partners for the calendar year 2018. The charts include both trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis). The first chart shows the countries with the largest two-way trade, i.e., combined trade in both exports and imports of goods and services. The second chart shows total exports and total imports for each of these countries.

TOTAL VALUE OF TWO-WAY TRADE, By major countries 2018, Percentage share


EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES, By major countries 2018, Percentage share



Combining trade in goods (on an international merchandise trade basis) and trade in services (on a balance of payments basis) provides a good approximation of total trade. Some components will be excluded (e.g. merchanting credits and goods procured in ports by carriers debits) while the manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others component will be double counted. These components are unlikely to impact on the broader analysis.

Exports data in goods with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are now being excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14a. In 2018, these restrictions represented 1.35% of the total exports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

Imports data in goods with the confidentiality restrictions 'no commodity details' or 'no value details' are excluded from the individual country and included in 'no country details' in the detailed breakdown presented in the time series spreadsheet table 14b. In 2018, these restrictions represented 1.88% of the total imports value. However, this figure does vary across individual countries.

For further details about these restrictions see Explanatory Notes paragraphs 26 to 28.