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WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO TREND ESTIMATES


EFFECT OF NEW SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES ON TREND ESTIMATES


TREND REVISIONS

The most recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent quarters become available. To assess reliability of the trend estimate at the current end, the 'what-if' chart presents trend estimates under different scenarios for the next quarter. The approximate effect of two possible scenarios on the current and previous trend estimates for total company gross operating profits and total inventories are presented below.

1. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are higher than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

2. Next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate of total inventories, and seasonally adjusted estimate for company gross operating profits respectively, are lower than the current quarter's estimate by the percentage shown.

Inventories (Chain Volume Measures)

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 1.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 1.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2017 June 156 744 0.1 156 673 0.1 156 673 0.1 September 156 747 0.0 156 692 0.0 156 845 0.1 December 156 745 0.0 157 122 0.3 157 071 0.1 2018 March 156 868 0.1 158 035 0.6 157 304 0.1

What if next quarter's seasonally adjusted estimate: Trend as published rises by 4.0% on this quarter (1) falls by 4.0% on this quarter (2) $m % $m % $m % 2017 June 80 480 0.7 80 480 0.7 80 480 0.7 September 80 324 -0.2 80 021 -0.6 80 468 0.0 December 82 210 2.3 82 316 2.9 82 161 2.1 2018 March 85 140 3.6 86 037 4.5 83 887 2.1