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The text below was previously contained in a preview file on the details tab. It has been moved to be more accessible.
ABOUT THIS DATASET
This dataset contains population projections at the capital city/balance of state level by single year of age (up to 85 years and over) and sex, for the period 2004–2051. These projections were produced by the ABS and published on 29 November 2005 in Population Projections, Australia 2004 to 2101 (cat. no. 3222.0).
Three alternative projections series (Series A, B and C in the table below) are presented in this dataset, with different combinations of assumptions on fertility, mortality, overseas migration and interstate migration. Assumptions used for all available series are detailed below:
PROJECTION SERIES, Assumptions used |
|
 | HIGH LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH |  | MEDIUM LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH |
 |
|  |
|
 | Net
interstate migration(a)
(high) | Net
interstate
migration
(medium) | Net
interstate migration(a)
(low) |  | Net
interstate migration(a)
(high) | Net
interstate
migration
(medium) | Net
interstate migration(a)
(low) |
|
HIGH FERTILITY (TFR = 1.9)
|
| Net overseas migration (per year) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 140 000 | 1(A) | 2 | 3 |  | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 110 000 | 19 | 20 | 21 |  | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| 80 000 | 37 | 38 | 39 |  | 40 | 41 | 42 |
| 0 | 55 | 56 | 57 |  | 58 | 59 | 60 |
|
MEDIUM FERTILITY (TFR = 1.7)
|
| Net overseas migration (per year) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 140 000 | 7 | 8 | 9 |  | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 110 000 | 25 | 26 | 27 |  | 28 | 29(B) | 30 |
| 80 000 | 43 | 44 | 45 |  | 46 | 47 | 48 |
| 0 | 61 | 62 | 63 |  | 64 | 65 | 66 |
|
LOW FERTILITY (TFR = 1.5)
|
| Net overseas migration (per year) |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 140 000 | 13 | 14 | 15 |  | 16 | 17 | 18 |
| 110 000 | 31 | 32 | 33 |  | 34 | 35 | 36 |
| 80 000 | 49 | 50 | 51 |  | 52 | 53 | 54(C) |
| 0 | 67 | 68 | 69 |  | 70 | 71 | 72 |
|
| (a) High and low interstate migration refer to high/low flow scenarios, and will therefore reflect high/low losses rather than high/low gains in some jurisdictions. |
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Data for the remaining series are available on request by contacting Matthew Montgomery on 02 6252 6487 or by emailing <matthew.montgomery@abs.gov.au>.
Capital city/balance of state projections were not generated for the Australian Capital Territory.
USING THIS DATASET WITH SUPERTABLE
When creating your own table from this SuperTABLE you must select at least one value from each of the following fields:
- Part of state,
- At 30 June, and
- Projection series.
Failure to do this will result in incorrect data in your table.
CLASSIFICATIONS
| Sex | Male, Female |
| At 30 June | 2004–2051 (annually) |
| Part of state | Capital city/balance of state |
| Age | Single year of age (0,1,2....,84,85 years and over) |
| Series | A, B, C |
TABLE FOR VALIDATION PURPOSES
PROJECTED POPULATION BY CAPITAL CITY/BALANCE OF STATE, Series B |
|
| Area | At 30 June 2004(a) | At 30 June 2051 |
|
| Sydney | 4,225,088 | 5,608,784 |
| Balance of New South Wales | 2,495,703 | 3,133,926 |
| Melbourne | 3,592,975 | 5,041,126 |
| Balance of Victoria | 1,369,995 | 1,532,970 |
| Brisbane | 1,777,651 | 3,354,719 |
| Balance of Queensland | 2,110,426 | 3,544,309 |
| Adelaide | 1,123,199 | 1,203,937 |
| Balance of South Australia | 409,528 | 376,787 |
| Perth | 1,454,606 | 2,453,604 |
| Balance of Western Australia | 523,473 | 710,906 |
| Hobart | 202,182 | 219,573 |
| Balance of Tasmania | 280,054 | 233,475 |
| Darwin | 109,432 | 232,310 |
| Balance of Northern Territory | 90,402 | 117,710 |
| ACT | 324,119 | 401,609 |
| Other Territories | 2,671 | 3,936 |
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| (a) Estimated resident population, base population. |
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